Average precision under random ranking - v1.0.2

Average precision under random ranking - v1.0.2

The manuscript retains its original date, September 7, 2026, and uses shantanu.w.singh@gmail.com as the contact address.
The preferred citation preserves the original manuscript date; the release metadata records the date of this version.

This release includes the rebuilt seven-page paper, reproducible supplement, arXiv source package, citation files, verification record, and SHA-256 checksums.

The exact-arithmetic Python checks, symbolic variance comparison, Lean build, and eight theorem audits pass.
The PDF compiles without warnings, all seven pages were visually checked, and citation metadata validate against CFF 1.2.0.

To reproduce, extract supplement.zip and run bash reproduce.sh.

Average precision under random ranking - v1.0.1

Average precision under random ranking - v1.0.1

This revision adds a prominent development chronology to the Introduction and repository landing page, with a citation to the original September 7, 2025 expectation derivation.
The mathematical results and computational implementations are unchanged from version 1.0.0.

The harmonic expectation and its exchangeability derivation were obtained independently of Manzhos et al. and recorded in the September 7, 2025 repository manuscript, before their November 4, 2025 preprint.
The Lean expectation proof followed on March 23, 2026, and the second-moment derivation and variance verification on July 23, 2026.

The release provides the seven-page paper, complete reproducible supplement, arXiv source package, updated citation metadata, and SHA-256 checksums.
The PDF compiles without warnings and has been visually checked; the citation metadata validates against CFF 1.2.0.

To cite this version, use the attached CITATION.bib or the repository's Cite this repository button.
To reproduce it, extract supplement.zip and run bash reproduce.sh.

Average precision under random ranking - v1.0.0

Average precision under random ranking

The paper and reproducible supplement by Shantanu Singh and Anne E. Carpenter give the exact mean and variance of full-list AP under uniform random ranking, with explicit boundary cases, two asymptotic regimes, and Lean proofs.

Read and reproduce

• paper.pdf: the seven-page manuscript, including appendices and references.
• supplement.zip: complete source, pinned dependencies, Python calculations, Lean proofs, and reproduction instructions.
• arxiv-source.zip: TeX source with ancillary material arranged for arXiv.
• CITATION.cff and CITATION.bib: citation metadata for this version.
• SHA256SUMS.txt: checksums of the downloadable files.

Extract supplement.zip and run bash reproduce.sh to regenerate the paper, figure, tables, verification record, and source archives.
The README also gives Python-only commands and a minimal exact-moments example.

Citation

Singh, S., and Carpenter, A. E. (2026).
Average precision under random ranking: baseline, variability, and formal verification (Version 1.0.0).
Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard.
Versioned release.

Verification

Exact enumeration covers 65 small configurations, including zero positives.
The four second-moment coefficient sums and equivalence to the published variance pass independent checks.
All three project Lean modules build, and the eight audited results use only the recorded foundational axioms.
The manuscript compiles without warnings and has been visually inspected.
The supplement includes the full reader review and verification record.