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Add comparative statics visualization to McCall model lecture (#685)
* Add comparative statics visualization to McCall model lecture Added a new plot in the Comparative Statics section showing the wage offer distribution with reservation wages before and after changing the discount factor β. Key changes: - Plot displays wage offer distribution as a line with markers - Shows reservation wage for β=0.99 (default) as vertical line - Shows reservation wage for β=0.96 as vertical line for comparison - Uses matplotlib default color cycle (blue, orange, green) - Solid lines with lw=2 for clear visibility - Legend positioned in upper left without frame - All font sizes increased by 20% for better readability The visualization clearly demonstrates how decreasing patience (lower β) reduces the reservation wage, as less patient workers are more willing to accept lower wage offers. 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com> * Optimize JAX JIT compilation in McCall model Moved @jax.jit decorators from intermediate functions to final calling function for better performance. Changes: - Removed @jax.jit from compute_reservation_wage_two() - Removed @jax.jit from compute_stopping_time() - Removed @partial(jax.jit, ...) from compute_mean_stopping_time() - Added @jax.jit to compute_stop_time_for_c() This allows JAX to see the entire computation graph and perform more aggressive optimizations, resulting in ~3% performance improvement. 🤖 Generated with [Claude Code](https://claude.com/claude-code) Co-Authored-By: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com> --------- Co-authored-by: Claude <noreply@anthropic.com>
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lectures/mccall_model.md

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@@ -98,12 +98,12 @@ sum of earnings
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```{math}
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:label: obj_model
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{\mathbb E} \sum_{t=0}^\infty \beta^t u(y_t)
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{\mathbb E} \sum_{t=0}^\infty \beta^t y_t
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```
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The constant $\beta$ lies in $(0, 1)$ and is called a **discount factor**.
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The smaller is $\beta$, the more the agent discounts future utility relative to current utility.
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The smaller is $\beta$, the more the agent discounts future earnings relative to current earnings.
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The variable $y_t$ is income, equal to
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* Waiting too long for a good offer is costly, since the future is discounted.
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* Accepting too early is costly, since better offers might arrive in the future.
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To decide optimally in the face of this trade-off, we use [dynamic programming](https://dp.quantecon.org/).
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To decide the optimal wait time in the face of this trade-off, we use [dynamic programming](https://dp.quantecon.org/).
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Dynamic programming can be thought of as a two-step procedure that
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@@ -137,25 +137,26 @@ In order to optimally trade-off current and future rewards, we need to think abo
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To weigh these two aspects of the decision problem, we need to assign *values*
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to states.
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To this end, let $v^*(w)$ be the total lifetime *value* accruing to an
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To this end, let $v^*(w)$ be the total lifetime value accruing to an
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unemployed worker who enters the current period unemployed when the wage is
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$w \in \mathbb{W}$.
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(In particular, the agent has wage offer $w$ in hand and can accept or reject it.)
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More precisely, $v^*(w)$ denotes the value of the objective function
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{eq}`obj_model` when an agent in this situation makes *optimal* decisions now
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and at all future points in time.
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More precisely, $v^*(w)$ denotes the total sum of expected discounted earnings
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when an agent always behaves in an optimal way. points in time.
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Of course $v^*(w)$ is not trivial to calculate because we don't yet know
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what decisions are optimal and what aren't!
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But think of $v^*$ as a function that assigns to each possible wage
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$s$ the maximal lifetime value that can be obtained with that offer in
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hand.
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If we don't know what opimal choices are, it feels imposible to calculate
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$v^*(w)$.
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A crucial observation is that this function $v^*$ must satisfy the
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recursion
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But let's put this aside for now and think of $v^*$ as a function that assigns
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to each possible wage $w$ the maximal lifetime value $v^*(w)$ that can be
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obtained with that offer in hand.
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A crucial observation is that this function $v^*$ must satisfy
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```{math}
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:label: odu_pv
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The intuition behind it is as follows:
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* the first term inside the max operation is the lifetime payoff from accepting current offer, since
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such a worker works forever at $w$ and values this income stream as
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$$
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\frac{w}{1 - \beta} = w + \beta w + \beta^2 w + \cdots
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But this is precisely $v^*(w)$, which is the left-hand side of {eq}`odu_pv`.
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Putting this all together, we see that {eq}`odu_pv` is valid for all $w$.
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### The Optimal Policy
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Suppose for now that we are able to solve {eq}`odu_pv` for the unknown function $v^*$.
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We still don't know how to compute $v^*$ (although {eq}`odu_pv` gives us hints
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we'll return to below).
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Once we have this function in hand we can behave optimally (i.e., make the
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right choice between accept and reject).
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But suppose for now that we do know $v^*$.
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Once we have this function in hand we can easily make optimal choices (i.e., make the
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right choice between accept and reject given any $w$).
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All we have to do is select the maximal choice on the right-hand side of {eq}`odu_pv`.
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In other words, we make the best choice between stopping and continuing, given
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the information provided to us by $v^*$.
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The optimal action is best thought of as a **policy**, which is, in general, a map from
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states to actions.
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v^*(i)
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= \max \left\{
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\frac{w(i)}{1 - \beta}, \, c + \beta \sum_{1 \leq j \leq n}
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\frac{w(i)}{1 - \beta}, \, c + \beta \sum_{j=1}^n
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v^*(j) q (j)
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\right\}
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\quad
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v'(i)
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= \max \left\{
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\frac{w(i)}{1 - \beta}, \, c + \beta \sum_{1 \leq j \leq n}
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\frac{w(i)}{1 - \beta}, \, c + \beta \sum_{j=1}^n
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v(j) q (j)
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\right\}
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\quad
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(Tv)(i)
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= \max \left\{
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\frac{w(i)}{1 - \beta}, \, c + \beta \sum_{1 \leq j \leq n}
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\frac{w(i)}{1 - \beta}, \, c + \beta \sum_{j=1}^n
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v(j) q (j)
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\right\}
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\quad
@@ -341,8 +351,7 @@ $\{ T^k v \}$ converges to the fixed point $v^*$ regardless of $v$.
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### Implementation
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Our default for $q$, the distribution of the state process, will be
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[Beta-binomial](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beta-binomial_distribution).
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Our default for $q$, the wage offer distribution, will be [Beta-binomial](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beta-binomial_distribution).
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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n, a, b = 50, 200, 100 # default parameters
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q: jnp.ndarray = q_default # array of probabilities
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```
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We implement the Bellman operator $T$ from {eq}`odu_pv3` as follows
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We implement the Bellman operator $T$ from {eq}`odu_pv3`, which we can write in
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terms of array operations as
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```{math}
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:label: odu_pv4
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Tv
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= \max \left\{
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\frac{w}{1 - \beta}, \, c + \beta \sum_{j=1}^n v(j) q (j)
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\right\}
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\quad
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```
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(The first term inside the max is an array and the second is just a number -- here
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we mean that the max comparison against this number is done element-by-element for all elements in the array.)
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We can code $T$ up as follows.
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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def T(model: McCallModel, v: jnp.ndarray):
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You can see that convergence is occurring: successive iterates are getting closer together.
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Here's a more serious iteration effort to compute the limit, which continues
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until measured deviation between successive iterates is below tol.
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until measured deviation between successive iterates is below `tol`.
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Once we obtain a good approximation to the limit, we will use it to calculate
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the reservation wage.
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Now that we know how to compute the reservation wage, let's see how it varies with
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parameters.
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In particular, let's look at what happens when we change $\beta$ and
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$c$.
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Here we compare the reservation wage at two values of $\beta$.
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The reservation wages will be plotted alongside the wage offer distribution, so
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that we can get a sense of what fraction of offers will be accepted.
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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fig, ax = plt.subplots()
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# Get the default color cycle
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prop_cycle = plt.rcParams['axes.prop_cycle']
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colors = prop_cycle.by_key()['color']
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# Plot the wage offer distribution
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ax.plot(w, q, '-', alpha=0.6, lw=2,
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label='wage offer distribution',
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color=colors[0])
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# Compute reservation wage with default beta
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model_default = McCallModel()
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v_init = model_default.w / (1 - model_default.β)
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v_default, res_wage_default = compute_reservation_wage(
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model_default, v_init
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)
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# Compute reservation wage with lower beta
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β_new = 0.96
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model_low_beta = McCallModel(β=β_new)
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v_init_low = model_low_beta.w / (1 - model_low_beta.β)
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v_low, res_wage_low = compute_reservation_wage(
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model_low_beta, v_init_low
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)
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# Plot vertical lines for reservation wages
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ax.axvline(x=res_wage_default, color=colors[1], lw=2,
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label=f'reservation wage (β={model_default.β})')
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ax.axvline(x=res_wage_low, color=colors[2], lw=2,
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label=f'reservation wage (β={β_new})')
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ax.set_xlabel('wage', fontsize=12)
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ax.set_ylabel('probability', fontsize=12)
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ax.tick_params(axis='both', which='major', labelsize=11)
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ax.legend(loc='upper left', frameon=False, fontsize=11)
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plt.show()
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```
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We see that the reservation wage is higher when $\beta$ is higher.
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This is not surprising, since higher $\beta$ is associated with more patience.
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Now let's look more systematically at what happens when we change $\beta$ and $c$.
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As a first step, given that we'll use it many times, let's create a more
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efficient, jit-complied version of the function that computes the reservation
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Here's an implementation:
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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@jax.jit
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def compute_reservation_wage_two(
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model: McCallModel, # instance containing default parameters
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tol: float=1e-5, # error tolerance
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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cdf = jnp.cumsum(q_default)
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@jax.jit
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def compute_stopping_time(w_bar, key):
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"""
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Compute stopping time by drawing wages until one exceeds `w_bar`.
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return t_final
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@partial(jax.jit, static_argnames=('num_reps',))
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def compute_mean_stopping_time(w_bar, num_reps=100000, seed=1234):
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"""
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Generate a mean stopping time over `num_reps` repetitions by
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c_vals = jnp.linspace(10, 40, 25)
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@jax.jit
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def compute_stop_time_for_c(c):
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"""Compute mean stopping time for a given compensation value c."""
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model = McCallModel(c=c)

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