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1 change: 1 addition & 0 deletions .prettierignore
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*.md
*.jpeg
*.ico
/themes/delphi/layouts/partials/webp-image.html
6 changes: 3 additions & 3 deletions content/_index.md
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title: Real-time Indicators of COVID-19 Activity
ref: covidcast
alt: Explore COVIDCast
image: covidcast_withfill.png
image: covidcast_withfill.jpg
- pre: Our Blog Post
title: New and improved COVID Symptom Survey Tracks Testing and Mask-Wearing
ref: 2020-10-06-survey-wave-4
alt: Learn more
image: landing-pg_hero-img-2_New and Improved COVID Symptom Survey Tracks Testing and Mask-Wearing.png
image: landing-pg_hero-img-2_New and Improved COVID Symptom Survey Tracks Testing and Mask-Wearing.jpg
- pre: Our Research and White Papers
title: "Pancasting: forecasting epidemics from provisional data"
link: https://delphi.cmu.edu/~lcbrooks/brooks2020pancasting.pdf
alt: View Paper
image: landing-pg_hero-img-2_Pancasting_ forecasting epidemics from provisional data.png
image: landing-pg_hero-img-2_Pancasting_ forecasting epidemics from provisional data.jpg
---
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16 changes: 8 additions & 8 deletions content/about/publications/index.md
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title: Research and White Papers
papers:
- title: "Pancasting: forecasting epidemics from provisional data"
image: pancasting.png
image: pancasting.jpg
authors: Brooks
link: https://delphi.cmu.edu/~lcbrooks/brooks2020pancasting.pdf
journal: PhD thesis
year: 2020
- title: "Kalman filter, sensor fusion, and constrained regression: equivalences and insights"
image: kalman_filter.png
image: kalman_filter.jpg
authors: Jahja, Farrow, Rosenfeld, Tibshirani
link: https://papers.nips.cc/paper/9475-kalman-filter-sensor-fusion-and-constrained-regression-equivalences-and-insights
journal: Neural Information Processing Systems
year: 2019
- title: "Nonmechanistic forecasts of seasonal influenza with iterative one-week-ahead distributions"
image: nonmechanistic_forecasts.png
image: nonmechanistic_forecasts.jpg
authors: Brooks, Farrow, Hyun, Tibshirani, Rosenfeld
link: https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1006134
journal: PLOS Computational Biology
year: 2018
- title: "A human judgment approach to epidemiological forecasting"
image: human.png
image: human.jpg
authors: Farrow, Brooks, Hyun, Tibshirani, Burke, Rosenfeld
link: https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005248
journal: PLOS Computational Biology
year: 2017
- title: "Modeling the past, present, and future of influenza"
image: modeling.png
image: modeling.jpg
authors: Farrow
link: https://delphi.cmu.edu/~dfarrow/thesis.pdf
journal: PhD thesis
year: 2016
- title: "Flexible modeling of epidemics with an empirical Bayes framework"
image: flexible_modeling.png
image: flexible_modeling.jpg
authors: Brooks, Farrow, Hyun, Tibshirani, Rosenfeld
link: https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004382
journal: PLOS Computational Biology
year: 2015
- title: "Predicting the predictable"
image: predicting.png
image: predicting.jpg
authors: Rosenfeld
link: https://delphi.cmu.edu/files/PredictingThePredictable_13-04-03.pdf
journal: presentation
year: 2013
- title: "A proposal for standardized evaluation of epidemiological models"
image: evaluation.png
image: evaluation.jpg
authors: Rosenfeld, Grefenstette, Burke
link: http://www.cs.cmu.edu/~roni/standardized-evaluation-of-epi-models-rev-09nov2012.pdf
journal: White paper
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4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions content/blog/2015-07-23-template-post.Rmd
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draft: true # remove this line in new blog posts
authors: # list of author keys, see /data/authors.yaml
- frida
heroImage: /blog/images/blog-lg-img_hello-world.png
heroImageThumb: /blog/images/blog-thumb-img_hello-world.png
heroImage: /blog/images/blog-lg-img_hello-world.jpg
heroImageThumb: /blog/images/blog-thumb-img_hello-world.jpg
summary: |
Blog summary, the first 150 characters are used for the blog list
acknowledgements: |
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draft: true # remove this line in new blog posts
authors: # list of author keys, see /data/authors.yaml
- frida
heroImage: /blog/images/blog-lg-img_hello-world.png
heroImageThumb: /blog/images/blog-thumb-img_hello-world.png
heroImage: /blog/images/blog-lg-img_hello-world.jpg
heroImageThumb: /blog/images/blog-thumb-img_hello-world.jpg
summary: |
Blog summary, the first 150 characters are used for the blog list
acknowledgements: |
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see <a href="http://rmarkdown.rstudio.com" class="uri">http://rmarkdown.rstudio.com</a>.</p>
<p>You can embed an R code chunk like this:</p>
<pre class="r"><code>summary(cars)
## speed dist
## Min. : 4.0 Min. : 2.00
## 1st Qu.:12.0 1st Qu.: 26.00
## Median :15.0 Median : 36.00
## Mean :15.4 Mean : 42.98
## 3rd Qu.:19.0 3rd Qu.: 56.00
## speed dist
## Min. : 4.0 Min. : 2.00
## 1st Qu.:12.0 1st Qu.: 26.00
## Median :15.0 Median : 36.00
## Mean :15.4 Mean : 42.98
## 3rd Qu.:19.0 3rd Qu.: 56.00
## Max. :25.0 Max. :120.00
fit &lt;- lm(dist ~ speed, data = cars)
fit
##
##
## Call:
## lm(formula = dist ~ speed, data = cars)
##
##
## Coefficients:
## (Intercept) speed
## (Intercept) speed
## -17.579 3.932</code></pre>
<div id="including-plots" class="section level2">
<h2>Including Plots</h2>
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4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions content/blog/2020-08-10-hello-world.Rmd
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authors:
- roni
- ryan
heroImage: /blog/images/blog-lg-img_hello-world.png
heroImageThumb: /blog/images/blog-thumb-img_hello-world.png
heroImage: /blog/images/blog-lg-img_hello-world.jpg
heroImageThumb: /blog/images/blog-thumb-img_hello-world.jpg
summary: |
Hello from the Delphi research group at Carnegie Mellon University!
We're a group of faculty, students, and staff, based primarily out of CMU
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authors:
- roni
- ryan
heroImage: /blog/images/blog-lg-img_hello-world.png
heroImageThumb: /blog/images/blog-thumb-img_hello-world.png
heroImage: /blog/images/blog-lg-img_hello-world.jpg
heroImageThumb: /blog/images/blog-thumb-img_hello-world.jpg
summary: |
Hello from the Delphi research group at Carnegie Mellon University!
We're a group of faculty, students, and staff, based primarily out of CMU
together with strong collaborators from other universities and industry.
Our group was founded in 2012 to advance the theory and practice of epidemic
forecasting. Since March 2020, we have refocused efforts towards helping combat
Our group was founded in 2012 to advance the theory and practice of epidemic
forecasting. Since March 2020, we have refocused efforts towards helping combat
the COVID-19 pandemic, by supporting informed decision-making at federal, state,
and local levels of government and in the healthcare sector. Until now, we've
been pretty “heads down” with our work, and slow to communicate what we've been
up to. But at last ... Delphi finally has a blog! This first post serves as an
been pretty “heads down” with our work, and slow to communicate what we've been
up to. But at last ... Delphi finally has a blog! This first post serves as an
introduction of sorts. Future posts will dive deeper into our various projects.
output:
blogdown::html_page:
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4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions content/blog/2020-08-26-fb-survey.Rmd
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authors:
- alex
- ryan
heroImage: /blog/images/blog-lg-img_facebook-survey-post.png
heroImageThumb: /blog/images/blog-thumb-img_facebook-survey-post.png
heroImage: /blog/images/blog-lg-img_facebook-survey-post.jpg
heroImageThumb: /blog/images/blog-thumb-img_facebook-survey-post.jpg
summary: |
Since April 2020, in collaboration with Facebook,
partner universities, and public health officials,
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authors:
- alex
- ryan
heroImage: /blog/images/blog-lg-img_facebook-survey-post.png
heroImageThumb: /blog/images/blog-thumb-img_facebook-survey-post.png
heroImage: /blog/images/blog-lg-img_facebook-survey-post.jpg
heroImageThumb: /blog/images/blog-thumb-img_facebook-survey-post.jpg
summary: |
Since April 2020, in collaboration with Facebook,
partner universities, and public health officials,
Expand All @@ -36,7 +36,7 @@
survey data. The COVIDcast API, which serves these estimates and is updated
daily, is a much larger effort run by the Delphi group, and our entire
engineering team is owed a lot of credit here. Ryan came up with the
idea of running the surveys, and worked with Facebook to make this a reality.
idea of running the surveys, and worked with Facebook to make this a reality.
On the Facebook side, Curtiss Cobb and Jonathan McKay played big roles. The
University of Maryland team, including Adrianne Bradford and Samantha Chiu and
led by Frauke Kreuter, made many contributions to the survey design.
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4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions content/blog/2020-08-28-api.Rmd
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authors:
- kathryn
- alex
heroImage: /blog/images/blog-lg-img_Accessing Open COVID-19.png
heroImageThumb: /blog/images/blog-thumb-img_Accessing Open COVID-19.png
heroImage: /blog/images/blog-lg-img_Accessing Open COVID-19.jpg
heroImageThumb: /blog/images/blog-thumb-img_Accessing Open COVID-19.jpg
summary: |
One of our primary initiatives at the Delphi COVIDcast project
has been to curate a diverse set of COVID-related data streams,
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authors:
- kathryn
- alex
heroImage: /blog/images/blog-lg-img_Accessing Open COVID-19.png
heroImageThumb: /blog/images/blog-thumb-img_Accessing Open COVID-19.png
heroImage: /blog/images/blog-lg-img_Accessing Open COVID-19.jpg
heroImageThumb: /blog/images/blog-thumb-img_Accessing Open COVID-19.jpg
summary: |
One of our primary initiatives at the Delphi COVIDcast project
has been to curate a diverse set of COVID-related data streams,
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4 changes: 2 additions & 2 deletions content/blog/2020-09-18-google-survey.Rmd
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- R
authors:
- ryan
heroImage: /blog/images/blog-lg-img_google-survey-post.png
heroImageThumb: /blog/images/blog-thumb-img_google-survey-post.png
heroImage: /blog/images/blog-lg-img_google-survey-post.jpg
heroImageThumb: /blog/images/blog-thumb-img_google-survey-post.jpg
summary: |
Since April 2020, in addition to our massive daily survey advertised on
Facebook, we've been running (even-more-massive) surveys through Google to
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- R
authors:
- ryan
heroImage: /blog/images/blog-lg-img_google-survey-post.png
heroImageThumb: /blog/images/blog-thumb-img_google-survey-post.png
heroImage: /blog/images/blog-lg-img_google-survey-post.jpg
heroImageThumb: /blog/images/blog-thumb-img_google-survey-post.jpg
summary: |
Since April 2020, in addition to our massive daily survey advertised on
Facebook, we've been running (even-more-massive) surveys through Google to
track the spread of COVID-19 in the United States.
At its peak, our Google survey was taken by over 1.2 million people in a single
day, and over its first month in operation, averaged over 600,000 daily
respondents. In mid-May, we paused daily dissemination of this survey in order
Since April 2020, in addition to our massive daily survey advertised on
Facebook, we've been running (even-more-massive) surveys through Google to
track the spread of COVID-19 in the United States.
At its peak, our Google survey was taken by over 1.2 million people in a single
day, and over its first month in operation, averaged over 600,000 daily
respondents. In mid-May, we paused daily dissemination of this survey in order
to focus on our (longer, more complex) survey through Facebook,
but we plan to bring back the Google survey this fall.
This short post covers some key differences between our Google and Facebook
but we plan to bring back the Google survey this fall.
This short post covers some key differences between our Google and Facebook
surveys, explains the backstory behind the "CLI-in-community" question
as it arose through our collaboration with Google,
as it arose through our collaboration with Google,
and shares some of our thinking about next steps for the Google survey.
acknowledgements: |
Ryan Tibshirani wrote the initial code for producing
estimates from the aggregated survey data. Sangwon Hyun, Natalia Lombardi de
Ryan Tibshirani wrote the initial code for producing
estimates from the aggregated survey data. Sangwon Hyun, Natalia Lombardi de
Oliveira, and Lester Mackey greatly extended and improved this codebase, and
they developed, along with Ryan, the underlying statistical methodology. Ryan
came up with the idea of running the surveys, and worked with Google to make
this a reality. On the Google side, Brett Slatkin and Hal Varian have been key
collaborators; Brett wrote the code to get daily survey data over to Delphi's
estimation pipeline; and both contributed numerous important ideas at various
they developed, along with Ryan, the underlying statistical methodology. Ryan
came up with the idea of running the surveys, and worked with Google to make
this a reality. On the Google side, Brett Slatkin and Hal Varian have been key
collaborators; Brett wrote the code to get daily survey data over to Delphi's
estimation pipeline; and both contributed numerous important ideas at various
stages of the project.
output:
html_document:
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- R
authors:
- ryan
heroImage: /blog/images/blog-Lg-img_can symptoms surveys improve covid-19.png
heroImageThumb: /blog/images/blog-thumbnail_can symptoms surveys improve covid-19.png
heroImage: /blog/images/blog-Lg-img_can symptoms surveys improve covid-19.jpg
heroImageThumb: /blog/images/blog-thumbnail_can symptoms surveys improve covid-19.jpg
summary: |
Building on our previous two posts (on our COVID-19 symptom surveys through
Facebook and Google)
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