Improve PR tracking calculations & pro-tips

README.md

@@ -186,6 +186,39 @@ Calibrated on Windows Vista development data showing 4% weekly code churn. A PR
 
 **Reference**: Nagappan, N., et al. (2008). Organizational Structure and Software Quality. *ICSE '08*.
 
+### 6. PR Tracking Overhead: Empirical Organizational Studies
+
+Models the cost of managing and triaging open PR backlogs. This captures planning and coordination overhead, **excluding actual code review time** (counted separately in future review costs). Based on research showing developers spend significant time on PR discovery, triage, and project management activities beyond reviewing code.
+
+**Formula**:
+```
+tracking_hours_per_day = openPRs × log₂(activeContributors + 1) × 0.005
+```
+
+**Components**:
+- **Linear with PR count**: More open PRs require more organizational scanning/triage overhead
+- **Logarithmic with team size**: Larger teams develop specialization, tooling, and distributed ownership that reduce per-capita burden
+- **Constant (0.005)**: Calibrated to ~20 seconds per PR per week of planning/coordination time, excluding actual review
+
+**Validation Examples**:
+- 20 PRs, 5 contributors: ~15 min/day total (3 min/person/day)
+- 200 PRs, 50 contributors: ~6 hours/day total (7 min/person/day)
+- 1000 PRs, 100 contributors: ~33 hours/day total (20 min/person/day)
+
+**Activities Captured** (non-review overhead only):
+- Sprint/milestone planning discussions about open PRs
+- Daily standup mentions and status coordination
+- Searching for duplicate work before starting new PRs
+- Identifying related PRs that may conflict or depend on each other
+- Quarterly/monthly mass triage of stale PRs
+- Project/product management tracking of feature delivery
+- Estimating and re-prioritizing work based on open PR backlog
+
+**References**:
+- Bacchelli, A., & Bird, C. (2013). Expectations, Outcomes, and Challenges of Modern Code Review. *ICSE '13*.
+- Rigby, P. C., & Bird, C. (2013). Convergent Contemporary Software Peer Review Practices. *FSE '13*.
+- Uwano, H., et al. (2006). Analyzing Individual Performance of Source Code Review Using Reviewers' Eye Movement. *ETRA '06*.
+
 ## Model Limitations
 
 **Individual Estimates**: High variance (CV > 1.0) due to developer and task heterogeneity.

cmd/prcost/main.go

@@ -530,6 +530,23 @@ func mergeVelocityGrade(avgOpenDays float64) (grade, message string) {
 	}
 }
 
+// mergeRateGrade returns a grade based on merge success rate percentage.
+// A: >90%, B: >80%, C: >70%, D: >60%, F: ≤60%.
+func mergeRateGrade(mergeRatePct float64) (grade, message string) {
+	switch {
+	case mergeRatePct > 90:
+		return "A", "Excellent"
+	case mergeRatePct > 80:
+		return "B", "Good"
+	case mergeRatePct > 70:
+		return "C", "Acceptable"
+	case mergeRatePct > 60:
+		return "D", "Low"
+	default:
+		return "F", "Poor"
+	}
+}
+
 // printMergeTimeModelingCallout prints a callout showing potential savings from reduced merge time.
 func printMergeTimeModelingCallout(breakdown *cost.Breakdown, cfg cost.Config) {
 	targetHours := cfg.TargetMergeTimeHours
@@ -595,12 +612,12 @@ func printMergeTimeModelingCallout(breakdown *cost.Breakdown, cfg cost.Config) {
 		fmt.Println("  ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐")
 		fmt.Printf("  │ %-60s│\n", "MERGE TIME MODELING")
 		fmt.Println("  └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘")
-		fmt.Printf("  If you lowered your average merge time to %s, you would save\n", formatTimeUnit(targetHours))
-		fmt.Printf("  ~$%s/yr in engineering overhead", formatWithCommas(annualSavings))
 		if efficiencyDelta > 0 {
-			fmt.Printf(" (+%.1f%% throughput).\n", efficiencyDelta)
+			fmt.Printf("  Reduce merge time to %s to boost team throughput by %.1f%%\n", formatTimeUnit(targetHours), efficiencyDelta)
+			fmt.Printf("  and save ~$%s/yr in engineering overhead.\n", formatWithCommas(annualSavings))
 		} else {
-			fmt.Println(".")
+			fmt.Printf("  If you lowered your average merge time to %s, you would save\n", formatTimeUnit(targetHours))
+			fmt.Printf("  ~$%s/yr in engineering overhead.\n", formatWithCommas(annualSavings))
 		}
 		fmt.Println()
 	}

cmd/prcost/repository.go

@@ -99,8 +99,17 @@ func analyzeRepository(ctx context.Context, owner, repo string, sampleSize, days
 		openPRCount = 0
 	}
 
+	// Convert PRSummary to PRMergeStatus for merge rate calculation
+	prStatuses := make([]cost.PRMergeStatus, len(prs))
+	for i, pr := range prs {
+		prStatuses[i] = cost.PRMergeStatus{
+			Merged: pr.Merged,
+			State:  pr.State,
+		}
+	}
+
 	// Extrapolate costs from samples using library function
-	extrapolated := cost.ExtrapolateFromSamples(breakdowns, len(prs), totalAuthors, openPRCount, actualDays, cfg)
+	extrapolated := cost.ExtrapolateFromSamples(breakdowns, len(prs), totalAuthors, openPRCount, actualDays, cfg, prStatuses)
 
 	// Display results in itemized format
 	printExtrapolatedResults(fmt.Sprintf("%s/%s", owner, repo), actualDays, &extrapolated, cfg)
@@ -199,8 +208,17 @@ func analyzeOrganization(ctx context.Context, org string, sampleSize, days int,
 	}
 	slog.Info("Counted total open PRs across organization", "org", org, "open_prs", totalOpenPRs)
 
+	// Convert PRSummary to PRMergeStatus for merge rate calculation
+	prStatuses := make([]cost.PRMergeStatus, len(prs))
+	for i, pr := range prs {
+		prStatuses[i] = cost.PRMergeStatus{
+			Merged: pr.Merged,
+			State:  pr.State,
+		}
+	}
+
 	// Extrapolate costs from samples using library function
-	extrapolated := cost.ExtrapolateFromSamples(breakdowns, len(prs), totalAuthors, totalOpenPRs, actualDays, cfg)
+	extrapolated := cost.ExtrapolateFromSamples(breakdowns, len(prs), totalAuthors, totalOpenPRs, actualDays, cfg, prStatuses)
 
 	// Display results in itemized format
 	printExtrapolatedResults(fmt.Sprintf("%s (organization)", org), actualDays, &extrapolated, cfg)
@@ -656,6 +674,18 @@ func printExtrapolatedEfficiency(ext *cost.ExtrapolatedBreakdown, days int, cfg
 	fmt.Printf("  │ %-60s│\n", velocityHeader)
 	fmt.Println("  └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘")
 
+	// Merge Rate box (if data available)
+	if ext.MergedPRs+ext.UnmergedPRs > 0 {
+		mergeRateGradeStr, mergeRateMessage := mergeRateGrade(ext.MergeRate)
+		fmt.Println("  ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐")
+		mergeRateHeader := fmt.Sprintf("MERGE RATE: %s (%.1f%%) - %s", mergeRateGradeStr, ext.MergeRate, mergeRateMessage)
+		if len(mergeRateHeader) > innerWidth {
+			mergeRateHeader = mergeRateHeader[:innerWidth]
+		}
+		fmt.Printf("  │ %-60s│\n", mergeRateHeader)
+		fmt.Println("  └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘")
+	}
+
 	// Weekly waste per PR author
 	if ext.WasteHoursPerAuthorPerWeek > 0 && ext.TotalAuthors > 0 {
 		fmt.Printf("  Weekly waste per PR author:     $%14s    %s  (%d authors)\n",
@@ -738,12 +768,12 @@ func printExtrapolatedMergeTimeModelingCallout(ext *cost.ExtrapolatedBreakdown,
 		fmt.Println("  ┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐")
 		fmt.Printf("  │ %-60s│\n", "MERGE TIME MODELING")
 		fmt.Println("  └─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘")
-		fmt.Printf("  If you lowered your average merge time to %s, you would save\n", formatTimeUnit(targetHours))
-		fmt.Printf("  ~$%s/yr in engineering overhead", formatWithCommas(annualSavings))
 		if efficiencyDelta > 0 {
-			fmt.Printf(" (+%.1f%% throughput).\n", efficiencyDelta)
+			fmt.Printf("  Reduce merge time to %s to boost team throughput by %.1f%%\n", formatTimeUnit(targetHours), efficiencyDelta)
+			fmt.Printf("  and save ~$%s/yr in engineering overhead.\n", formatWithCommas(annualSavings))
 		} else {
-			fmt.Println(".")
+			fmt.Printf("  If you lowered your average merge time to %s, you would save\n", formatTimeUnit(targetHours))
+			fmt.Printf("  ~$%s/yr in engineering overhead.\n", formatWithCommas(annualSavings))
 		}
 		fmt.Println()
 	}

internal/server/server.go

@@ -1659,8 +1659,17 @@ func (s *Server) processRepoSample(ctx context.Context, req *RepoSampleRequest,
 		openPRCount = 0
 	}
 
+	// Convert PRSummary to PRMergeStatus for merge rate calculation
+	prStatuses := make([]cost.PRMergeStatus, len(prs))
+	for i, pr := range prs {
+		prStatuses[i] = cost.PRMergeStatus{
+			Merged: pr.Merged,
+			State:  pr.State,
+		}
+	}
+
 	// Extrapolate costs from samples
-	extrapolated := cost.ExtrapolateFromSamples(breakdowns, len(prs), totalAuthors, openPRCount, actualDays, cfg)
+	extrapolated := cost.ExtrapolateFromSamples(breakdowns, len(prs), totalAuthors, openPRCount, actualDays, cfg, prStatuses)
 
 	// Only include seconds_in_state if we have data (turnserver only)
 	var secondsInState map[string]int
@@ -1779,8 +1788,17 @@ func (s *Server) processOrgSample(ctx context.Context, req *OrgSampleRequest, to
 	}
 	s.logger.InfoContext(ctx, "Counted total open PRs across organization", "org", req.Org, "open_prs", totalOpenPRs)
 
+	// Convert PRSummary to PRMergeStatus for merge rate calculation
+	prStatuses := make([]cost.PRMergeStatus, len(prs))
+	for i, pr := range prs {
+		prStatuses[i] = cost.PRMergeStatus{
+			Merged: pr.Merged,
+			State:  pr.State,
+		}
+	}
+
 	// Extrapolate costs from samples
-	extrapolated := cost.ExtrapolateFromSamples(breakdowns, len(prs), totalAuthors, totalOpenPRs, actualDays, cfg)
+	extrapolated := cost.ExtrapolateFromSamples(breakdowns, len(prs), totalAuthors, totalOpenPRs, actualDays, cfg, prStatuses)
 
 	// Only include seconds_in_state if we have data (turnserver only)
 	var secondsInState map[string]int
@@ -2176,8 +2194,17 @@ func (s *Server) processRepoSampleWithProgress(ctx context.Context, req *RepoSam
 		openPRCount = 0
 	}
 
+	// Convert PRSummary to PRMergeStatus for merge rate calculation
+	prStatuses := make([]cost.PRMergeStatus, len(prs))
+	for i, pr := range prs {
+		prStatuses[i] = cost.PRMergeStatus{
+			Merged: pr.Merged,
+			State:  pr.State,
+		}
+	}
+
 	// Extrapolate costs from samples
-	extrapolated := cost.ExtrapolateFromSamples(breakdowns, len(prs), totalAuthors, openPRCount, actualDays, cfg)
+	extrapolated := cost.ExtrapolateFromSamples(breakdowns, len(prs), totalAuthors, openPRCount, actualDays, cfg, prStatuses)
 
 	// Only include seconds_in_state if we have data (turnserver only)
 	var secondsInState map[string]int
@@ -2326,8 +2353,17 @@ func (s *Server) processOrgSampleWithProgress(ctx context.Context, req *OrgSampl
 	}
 	s.logger.InfoContext(ctx, "Counted total open PRs across organization", "open_prs", totalOpenPRs, "org", req.Org)
 
+	// Convert PRSummary to PRMergeStatus for merge rate calculation
+	prStatuses := make([]cost.PRMergeStatus, len(prs))
+	for i, pr := range prs {
+		prStatuses[i] = cost.PRMergeStatus{
+			Merged: pr.Merged,
+			State:  pr.State,
+		}
+	}
+
 	// Extrapolate costs from samples
-	extrapolated := cost.ExtrapolateFromSamples(breakdowns, len(prs), totalAuthors, totalOpenPRs, actualDays, cfg)
+	extrapolated := cost.ExtrapolateFromSamples(breakdowns, len(prs), totalAuthors, totalOpenPRs, actualDays, cfg, prStatuses)
 
 	// Only include seconds_in_state if we have data (turnserver only)
 	var secondsInState map[string]int

internal/server/static/formatR2RCallout.js

@@ -16,16 +16,12 @@ function formatR2RCallout(avgOpenHours, r2rSavings, currentEfficiency, modeledEf
     }
 
     const efficiencyDelta = modeledEfficiency - currentEfficiency;
-    let throughputText = '';
-    if (efficiencyDelta > 0) {
-        throughputText = ' (+' + efficiencyDelta.toFixed(1) + '% throughput)';
-    }
 
     // Format target merge time
     let targetText = targetMergeHours.toFixed(1) + 'h';
 
-    let html = '<div style="margin: 24px 0; padding: 12px 20px; background: linear-gradient(135deg, #e6f9f0 0%, #ffffff 100%); border: 1px solid #00c853; border-radius: 8px; font-size: 14px; color: #1d1d1f; line-height: 1.6;">';
-    html += 'Pro-Tip: Save <strong>' + savingsText + '/yr</strong> in lost development effort by reducing merge times to &lt;' + targetText + ' with ';
+    let html = '<div style="margin: 24px 0; padding: 12px 20px; background: linear-gradient(135deg, #e6f9f0 0%, #ffffff 100%); border: 1px solid #00c853; border-radius: 8px; font-size: 16px; color: #1d1d1f; line-height: 1.6; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, \'Segoe UI\', Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif, \'Apple Color Emoji\', \'Segoe UI Emoji\', \'Noto Color Emoji\';">';
+    html += '<span style="font-family: \'Apple Color Emoji\', \'Segoe UI Emoji\', \'Noto Color Emoji\', sans-serif; font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; text-rendering: optimizeLegibility;">\uD83D\uDCA1</span> <strong>Pro-Tip:</strong> Boost team throughput by <strong>' + efficiencyDelta.toFixed(1) + '%</strong> and save <strong>' + savingsText + '/yr</strong> by reducing merge times to &lt;' + targetText + ' with ';
     html += '<a href="https://codegroove.dev/products/ready-to-review/" target="_blank" rel="noopener" style="color: #00c853; font-weight: 600; text-decoration: none;">Ready to Review</a>. ';
     html += 'Free for open-source repositories, $6/user/org for private repos.';
     html += '</div>';

internal/server/static/formatR2RCallout.test.js

@@ -32,10 +32,13 @@ test('Renders callout for PRs with avgOpenHours > 1.5 (default)', () => {
     assert(result.length > 0, 'Should return non-empty HTML');
 });
 
-// Test 3: Should contain "Pro-Tip:" text
-test('Contains "Pro-Tip:" text', () => {
+// Test 3: Should contain "Pro-Tip:" text and throughput boost
+test('Contains "Pro-Tip:" text and throughput boost', () => {
     const result = formatR2RCallout(10, 50000, 60, 70);
+    assert(result.includes('💡'), 'Should contain lightbulb emoji');
     assert(result.includes('Pro-Tip:'), 'Should contain "Pro-Tip:"');
+    assert(result.includes('Boost team throughput by'), 'Should contain throughput boost message');
+    assert(result.includes('10.0%'), 'Should show efficiency delta of 10% (70 - 60)');
 });
 
 // Test 4: Should contain "Ready to Review" link