models-employed: add the real neural experiment record (5.5) — strain context + calibration + gate win
The seismicity-only gate ~0; the GNSS-strain context + the rate_cal calibration fix -> the neural beats
ETAS on the in-loop gate (+0.075 nats, N-test passes, forecast 218.9 vs 248 observed). With the honesty
that defines the product: single-window, NOT pseudo-prospective; under validation; never published on one
window.
6a125f8
evaluation: add the real results section (back-analysis + multi-model benchmark, live)
Real leakage-free numbers from the harness, rendered live on the Back-analysis page: 195-tile ETAS on 97k
events; global field vs null +0.0835 nats/eq, high-low bias gap +0.0184; the multi-model benchmark (ETAS
best, naive ensemble underperforms ETAS) with the honest finding + links to the experiment register and
the cited evidence base. Negative/zero results kept.
f140aa5
changelog: headline results are now LIVE — update status table + central numbers
The status-at-a-glance was stale (it said full training / real back-analysis were 'pending'). They are
done and live: 97k-event global fit (195 ETAS tiles), the 8-view pseudo-prospective back-analysis, global
context contribution 0.0835 nats/eq vs null, high-low bias gap +0.0184, neural trained (gate ~0 until
covariates), efficiency 13x. Calibration (N-test) flagged as the honest open item.
f0f8569
wiki: restructure into per-topic sub-pages (deep) + Data section (sources + features)
19 per-topic sub-pages (one deep page per classical model: Gutenberg-Richter, Omori-Utsu, ETAS,
Reasenberg-Jones, STEP, EEPAS, smoothed seismicity, BPT/renewal, rate-and-state+Coulomb; one per ML
method: temporal point processes, RMTPP, Neural Hawkes, Transformer Hawkes, RECAST/FERN, CNN spatial
(DeVries+Mignan), GNN/LSTM, detection vs forecasting) + Data-Sources (the sources) + Data-Types-and-Features
(the data types + engineered features) with mermaid/equations. Models-Classical/ML become indexes;
References consolidated; Sidebar/Home rebuilt as the tree. Per-topic = depth (Felipe's directive).
27fb987
wiki: initial technical record + persistent disclaimer footer
13 pages mapping the deep research: Home, _Sidebar, Glossary, Methodology-History, Honest-Limits,
Models-Classical, Models-ML, Models-Employed, Data-Sources, Technical-Architecture, Pipeline,
Evaluation-and-Tests, Changelog-and-Progress. _Footer.md puts the forecast-not-prediction /
not-for-life-safety disclaimer at the foot of every page. Public-safe (leak-scanned). Next: restructure
into per-topic sub-pages for depth + add the Data (sources + features) section.
ce195d5