Ten strategic forecasts mapping how unified global systems are fragmenting into multiple incompatible arrangements. We call this the shift from "one game to many games"—where organizations must now navigate competing rules, shifting alliances, and parallel systems that don't interoperate.
This is strategic intelligence for organizations making decisions in a world where the old playbook no longer applies.
Decision-makers navigating systemic uncertainty: NGO program officers, foundation strategists, government policy teams, corporate risk managers, and multilateral organizations operating across borders. Built for practitioners who need actionable intelligence, not academic theory.
- From Agreed Transparency to Engineered Opacity
- From Political Spectrum to Ideological Fog
- From Digital Empathy to Localized Solidarity
- From Special Relationships to Strategic Situationships
- From Collective Climate Ambition to Fragmented Adaptation
- From Open Society to Strategic Opacity
- From Selective Migration to People as Asset Class
- From Energy Hegemony to Power Plurality
- From Dollar Dominance to Money Unbundled
- From Technology Convergence to Sovereign Systems
Domains covered: Trade systems, migration, energy, financial systems, climate policy, civil society, technology governance, political systems, information ecosystems, global health infrastructure.
What we're witnessing isn't random chaos but systematic reorganization driven by strategic norm abandonment. When powerful actors defect from established rules—whether tariff frameworks, climate commitments, or information transparency—it signals that old constraints no longer bind. This triggers cascades of imitation that transform entire systems. Organizations assuming a return to normal will discover the ground has shifted beneath them.
Each forecast is structured around a "From-To" paradigm shift—contrasting legacy assumptions against emerging realities. Analysis includes current signals and evidence, short scenarios exploring how transformations might unfold, strategic blind spots organizations typically miss, and recommended actions.
The AREAS model maps who's Architecting, Resisting, Exploiting, Avoiding, or being Shaped by each shift—moving beyond static geopolitical categories toward dynamic positioning analysis.
Start here:
- Reading and Applying the 10F Forecasts — How to use these forecasts
- One Game to Many Games — Understanding the transformation
The 10F Consortium is an independent collective of 20+ futurists, strategic analysts, and domain experts convened in Singapore in September 2025. The project operates with complete intellectual independence, funded by the Tingari-Silverton Foundation with administrative partnership from Singapore-based Syinc.
Project Leads:
- Scott Smith — Co-founder of Changeist, author of How to Future (2020), co-author of Future Cultures (2023), 25+ years in applied foresight
- Ariel Muller — Founder of Middlegame, strategic foresight and systems design
- Susan Cox-Smith — Co-founder of Changeist, futures research and strategy, co-author of Future Cultures (2023)
Key Contributors: Lina Srivastava (Center for Transformational Change, US), Aarathi Krishnan (RAKSHA Intelligence Futures, US), Dr Jake Dunagan (IFTF, US), Cheryl Chung (Tent Futures, Singapore), Katindi Sivi (Longview Consult, Kenya), Dr Ariella Helfgott (SA Futures Agency, Australia), Bernice Ang and Shan Koh (Zeroth Labs, Singapore), Dr Vaughn Tan (Singapore), Igor Schwarzmann (Germany), and others.
Self-organized. Open-access. Built for post-2025 disruption.
Twenty-plus independent practitioners—no institutional sponsor, no client agenda—came together to produce the strategic foresight that traditional institutions aren't delivering. The consortium convened for an intensive two-day workshop in Singapore, followed by distributed drafting and editorial collaboration across six continents.
- Public release: 17 February 2026
- Time horizon: 2025–2035
- Available formats: Markdown on GitHub (PDF versions forthcoming)
- Scope: Approximately 37,000 words across 13 documents (10 forecasts + 3 framework documents)
License: All outputs released under CC-BY-4.0.
Website: 10Fconsortium.org
- General inquiries: info@10fconsortium.org
- Media contact: Scott Smith — ssmith@changeist.com
Attribution: 10F Consortium / TSF / Syinc