🧺 PolyBaskets

ETF for prediction markets - A prediction market aggregator that lets you bundle multiple Polymarket outcomes into one basket, set custom weights and bet as a single position — a portfolio in one trade

🎯 The Problem

Prediction markets are fragmented and limited:

Users can only bet on individual markets one at a time
No way to create diversified positions across multiple outcomes
Managing multiple bets is complex and time-consuming
No mechanism to bet on correlated events as a single position
Missing the concept of index-based investing in predictions

Example: You believe tech stocks will boom, AI regulation will pass, and crypto will rally. Currently, you'd need to place 3+ separate bets, track each one, and manage payouts individually.

💡 The Solution

PolyBaskets lets you create prediction market baskets - curated collections of Polymarket outcomes with custom weights, all settled as a single on-chain position.

🔄 How It Works

flowchart TD
    subgraph Data["📊 DATA SOURCE"]
        PM[("Polymarket API")]
        PM --> |Live Prices| MARKETS["Active Markets\n• BTC $100k?\n• Trump 2024?\n• AI Regulation?"]
    end
    
    subgraph Create["🧺 BASKET CREATION"]
        MARKETS --> SELECT["Select Markets"]
        SELECT --> WEIGHT["Assign Weights\n40% / 35% / 25%"]
        WEIGHT --> INDEX["Calculate Index\nΣ(Weight × Probability)"]
        INDEX --> |"Entry Index: 85.7%"| SAVE["Save & Bet"]
    end
    
    subgraph Chain["⛓️ VARA NETWORK"]
        SAVE --> |"100 VARA"| CONTRACT[("Smart Contract")]
        CONTRACT --> BASKET["Basket Created\n• ID: #42\n• Entry: 0.857\n• Shares: 100"]
        CONTRACT --> POSITION["Position Stored\n• User Address\n• Shares Owned"]
    end
    
    subgraph Settle["🤖 SETTLEMENT"]
        BOT["Settler Bot"] --> |Monitor| PM
        PM --> |"Market Resolved"| BOT
        BOT --> |"Propose Settlement"| CONTRACT
        CONTRACT --> CHALLENGE["12min Challenge\nWindow"]
        CHALLENGE --> FINALIZE["Finalized\nSettlement Index: 1.0"]
    end
    
    subgraph Claim["💰 PAYOUT"]
        FINALIZE --> CALC["Calculate Payout\n100 × (1.0 ÷ 0.857)"]
        CALC --> PAYOUT["Claim 116.7 VARA\n+16.7% Profit"]
    end
    
    style PM fill:#6366f1,color:#fff
    style CONTRACT fill:#8b5cf6,color:#fff
    style BOT fill:#10b981,color:#fff
    style PAYOUT fill:#22c55e,color:#fff

🏗️ System Architecture

flowchart TB
    subgraph Frontend["🖥️ FRONTEND (React + Vite)"]
        UI["Web Interface"]
        WALLET["Wallet Connection\nSubWallet / Talisman"]
        STATE["State Management\nReact Query + Context"]
    end
    
    subgraph External["🌐 EXTERNAL SERVICES"]
        POLY["Polymarket\nGamma API"]
        VARA_RPC["Vara Network\nRPC Node"]
    end
    
    subgraph Backend["⚙️ BACKEND SERVICES"]
        SETTLER["Settler Bot\nNode.js"]
        PROXY["API Proxy\nCORS Handler"]
    end
    
    subgraph Blockchain["⛓️ VARA NETWORK"]
        PROGRAM["Smart Contract\nRust / Sails"]
        STORAGE["On-Chain Storage\n• Baskets\n• Positions\n• Settlements"]
    end
    
    UI <--> WALLET
    UI <--> STATE
    STATE <--> |"REST API"| POLY
    STATE <--> |"WebSocket"| VARA_RPC
    WALLET <--> |"Sign TX"| VARA_RPC
    VARA_RPC <--> PROGRAM
    PROGRAM <--> STORAGE
    SETTLER <--> |"Monitor"| POLY
    SETTLER <--> |"Settle TX"| VARA_RPC
    PROXY <--> POLY
    UI <--> PROXY
    
    style Frontend fill:#1e293b,color:#fff
    style Blockchain fill:#7c3aed,color:#fff
    style Backend fill:#059669,color:#fff
    style External fill:#0891b2,color:#fff

🚀 Deployment Summary

Daily contest runtime now uses one unified root deployment contract.

Use only:

Stack services:

postgres
indexer-migrate
indexer-processor
indexer-api
bet-quote-service
contest-bot
settler-bot

Quick start:

cp .env.example .env
cp .env.secrets.example .env.secrets

Fill:

chain/program env in .env
include BET_TOKEN_PROGRAM_ID so the indexer can count Approve and BetToken Claim activity for the daily leaderboard
exactly one of SETTLER_SEED or SETTLER_SEED_FILE in .env.secrets
exactly one of BET_QUOTE_SIGNER_SEED or BET_QUOTE_SIGNER_SEED_FILE in .env.secrets

Mnemonic secrets may be provided either as space-separated or comma-separated words.

Run:

docker compose \
  --env-file .env \
  --env-file .env.secrets \
  -f docker-compose.yml \
  up --build

Logs:

docker compose --env-file .env --env-file .env.secrets -f docker-compose.yml logs -f indexer-processor
docker compose --env-file .env --env-file .env.secrets -f docker-compose.yml logs -f bet-quote-service
docker compose --env-file .env --env-file .env.secrets -f docker-compose.yml logs -f contest-bot
docker compose --env-file .env --env-file .env.secrets -f docker-compose.yml logs -f settler-bot

Frontend:

set VITE_INDEXER_GRAPHQL_ENDPOINT to your indexer-api GraphQL URL
set VITE_BET_QUOTE_SERVICE_URL to your bet-quote-service URL
CORS allow-list is controlled by FRONTEND_URLS
on Railway, indexer-api should respect PORT
on Railway, bet-quote-service should also respect PORT
recommended production setting: INDEXER_GRAPHIQL_ENABLED=false
BET_QUOTE_SIGNER_SEED must be a dedicated secret and must not reuse SETTLER_SEED

📋 User Flow Sequence

sequenceDiagram
    autonumber
    participant U as 👤 User
    participant F as 🖥️ Frontend
    participant P as 📊 Polymarket
    participant V as ⛓️ Vara Contract
    participant B as 🤖 Settler Bot

    rect rgb(30, 41, 59)
        Note over U,P: BASKET CREATION
        U->>F: Browse Markets
        F->>P: Fetch Live Prices
        P-->>F: Market Data + Probabilities
        F-->>U: Display Markets
        U->>F: Select Markets + Set Weights
        F->>F: Calculate Basket Index
        U->>F: Confirm & Sign Transaction
        F->>V: CreateBasket(items, weights)
        F->>V: BetOnBasket(basketId, indexBps)
        V-->>F: Position Created (100 shares)
        F-->>U: Success! Basket #42 Created
    end

    rect rgb(20, 83, 45)
        Note over P,B: MARKET RESOLUTION
        loop Every 5 minutes
            B->>P: Check Market Status
            P-->>B: Market Resolved (YES won)
        end
        B->>B: All markets in basket resolved
        B->>V: ProposeSettlement(basketId, resolutions)
        V-->>V: Start 12min Challenge Window
    end

    rect rgb(127, 29, 29)
        Note over V,B: FINALIZATION
        B->>B: Wait 12 minutes
        B->>V: FinalizeSettlement(basketId)
        V-->>V: Settlement Finalized
    end

    rect rgb(21, 94, 117)
        Note over U,V: CLAIM PAYOUT
        U->>F: View Basket Status
        F->>V: GetSettlement(basketId)
        V-->>F: Settlement Index: 1.0
        F-->>U: Show Claim Button
        U->>F: Click "Claim Payout"
        F->>V: Claim(basketId)
        V->>V: Calculate: 100 × (1.0 ÷ 0.857)
        V-->>U: Transfer 116.7 VARA
        F-->>U: 🎉 Payout Celebration Modal
    end

🧩 Component Architecture

flowchart LR
    subgraph Pages["📄 Pages"]
        BP["BuilderPage"]
        BKP["BasketPage"]
        EP["ExplorePage"]
        MBP["MyBasketsPage"]
    end
    
    subgraph Components["🧱 Components"]
        BB["BasketBuilder"]
        BC["BasketCard"]
        BI["BasketIndex"]
        MS["MarketSearch"]
        SB["SaveBasketButton"]
        PC["PayoutCelebration"]
    end
    
    subgraph Lib["📚 Libraries"]
        PM["polymarket.ts\nAPI Client"]
        BU["basket-utils.ts\nIndex Calc"]
        BO["basket-onchain.ts\nContract Client"]
    end
    
    subgraph Context["🔄 Context"]
        WC["WalletContext"]
        BC2["BasketContext"]
    end
    
    BP --> BB
    BP --> MS
    BP --> SB
    BKP --> BI
    BKP --> PC
    EP --> MS
    MBP --> BC
    
    BB --> BU
    SB --> BO
    BI --> PM
    MS --> PM
    
    SB --> WC
    BB --> BC2
    
    style Pages fill:#3b82f6,color:#fff
    style Components fill:#8b5cf6,color:#fff
    style Lib fill:#10b981,color:#fff
    style Context fill:#f59e0b,color:#fff

✨ Features

Feature	Description
🔴 Live Data	Real-time prices from Polymarket API, updates every 2 seconds
🧺 Basket Creation	Select multiple markets, assign custom weights (must total 100%)
⛓️ On-Chain Settlement	Trustless settlement with 12-min challenge window
📊 Portfolio Tracking	Track all baskets, live P&L, claim with one click
🎉 Share Wins	Download image, share on X (Twitter) and Telegram

📈 Index Calculation

flowchart LR
    subgraph Markets["Selected Markets"]
        M1["BTC $100k\nYES @ 75%"]
        M2["Trump 2024\nYES @ 52%"]
        M3["AI Regulation\nNO @ 60%"]
    end
    
    subgraph Weights["Assigned Weights"]
        W1["40%"]
        W2["35%"]
        W3["25%"]
    end
    
    subgraph Calc["Calculation"]
        C1["0.40 × 0.75 = 0.300"]
        C2["0.35 × 0.52 = 0.182"]
        C3["0.25 × 0.60 = 0.150"]
    end
    
    subgraph Result["Result"]
        R["Index = 0.632\n(63.2%)"]
    end
    
    M1 --> W1 --> C1
    M2 --> W2 --> C2
    M3 --> W3 --> C3
    C1 --> R
    C2 --> R
    C3 --> R
    
    style Result fill:#22c55e,color:#fff

Formula: Index = Σ (Weight × Probability)

💰 Payout Formula

Payout = Shares × (Settlement Index ÷ Entry Index)

Scenario	Entry	Settlement	Bet	Payout	Result
📈 Profit	63.2%	85%	100 VARA	134.5 VARA	+34.5%
📉 Loss	63.2%	40%	100 VARA	63.3 VARA	-36.7%

🚀 Quick Start

# Clone the repository
git clone https://github.com/Adityaakr/polybaskets.git
cd polybaskets

# Install dependencies
npm install

# Start development server
npm run dev

Environment Variables

VITE_ENABLE_VARA=true
VITE_ENABLE_MANUAL_BETTING=true
VITE_PROGRAM_ID=0x702395d43248eaa5f1fd4d9eadadc75b0fb1c7c5ae9ea20bf31375fd4358f403
VITE_NODE_ADDRESS=wss://testnet.vara.network
VITE_GAMMA_PROXY=/gamma
VITE_INDEXER_GRAPHQL_ENDPOINT=http://localhost:4350/graphql
VITE_BET_QUOTE_SERVICE_URL=http://127.0.0.1:4360
VITE_CONTEST_DAY_BOUNDARY_OFFSET_MS=43200000
VITE_EXPLORER_HOLD_ENABLED=false

VITE_ENABLE_VARA controls the native VARA asset flow in the frontend. VITE_ENABLE_MANUAL_BETTING controls whether the web UI can create baskets and place bets directly, or stays in agent-only execution mode. VITE_CONTEST_DAY_BOUNDARY_OFFSET_MS controls the frontend contest-window start offset in milliseconds from UTC midnight. 43200000 means 12:00 UTC. VITE_EXPLORER_HOLD_ENABLED swaps /explorer to a launch-soon placeholder page, and the related VITE_EXPLORER_HOLD_* vars let you customize the copy and CTA without code changes.

true: current behavior is preserved, including native VARA basket creation, betting, and claim UI.
false: the app runs in CHIP-only mode. Native VARA asset UI is hidden, native VARA actions are unavailable, and the builder defaults to the CHIP lane only.

🛠️ Tech Stack

Layer	Technology
Frontend	React, TypeScript, Vite, TailwindCSS, shadcn/ui
Blockchain	Vara Network (Gear Protocol)
Smart Contract	Rust with Sails framework
Data Source	Polymarket Gamma API
State	React Query, Context API

📁 Project Structure

polybaskets/
├── src/                      # React frontend
│   ├── components/           # UI components
│   ├── pages/                # Route pages
│   ├── lib/                  # Utilities & API clients
│   └── contexts/             # React contexts
├── bet-quote-service/        # Signed BET quote backend
├── settler-bot/              # Settlement automation
├── program/                  # Vara smart contract (Rust)
├── skills/                   # AI agent skill pack
│   ├── basket-bet/           # Claim CHIP & place bets
│   ├── basket-query/         # Browse baskets & positions
│   ├── basket-claim/         # Claim settled payouts
│   └── idl/                  # Contract IDL files
└── public/                   # Static assets & IDL

🤖 AI Agent Skills

AI agents can interact with PolyBaskets on-chain — claim CHIP tokens, browse baskets, place bets, and collect payouts.

npx skills add Adityaakr/polybaskets

Works with Claude Code, Codex, Cursor, Gemini CLI, and 40+ other agents. See skills/README.md for details and starter prompts.

🔗 Links

Live App: polybaskets.xyz
Vara Network: vara.network
Polymarket: polymarket.com

📄 License

MIT License - feel free to fork and build!

🧺 Build your prediction portfolio. Bet on the future.

Name		Name	Last commit message	Last commit date
Latest commit History 199 Commits
.agents/skills/polybaskets-skills		.agents/skills/polybaskets-skills
bet-lane		bet-lane
bet-quote-service		bet-quote-service
bet-token		bet-token
contest-bot		contest-bot
daily-contest		daily-contest
indexer		indexer
program		program
public		public
relayer		relayer
settler-bot		settler-bot
skills		skills
src		src
voucher-backend		voucher-backend
.dockerignore		.dockerignore
.env.example		.env.example
.env.secrets.example		.env.secrets.example
.gitignore		.gitignore
.npmrc		.npmrc
CLAUDE.md		CLAUDE.md
Caddyfile		Caddyfile
README.md		README.md
components.json		components.json
docker-compose.yml		docker-compose.yml
eslint.config.js		eslint.config.js
index.html		index.html
package-lock.json		package-lock.json
package.json		package.json
postcss.config.js		postcss.config.js
tailwind.config.ts		tailwind.config.ts
tsconfig.app.json		tsconfig.app.json
tsconfig.json		tsconfig.json
tsconfig.node.json		tsconfig.node.json
vite.config.ts		vite.config.ts

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🧺 PolyBaskets

🎯 The Problem

💡 The Solution

🔄 How It Works

🏗️ System Architecture

🚀 Deployment Summary

📋 User Flow Sequence

🧩 Component Architecture

✨ Features

📈 Index Calculation

💰 Payout Formula

🚀 Quick Start

Environment Variables

🛠️ Tech Stack

📁 Project Structure

🤖 AI Agent Skills

🔗 Links

📄 License

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🧺 PolyBaskets

🎯 The Problem

💡 The Solution

🔄 How It Works

🏗️ System Architecture

🚀 Deployment Summary

📋 User Flow Sequence

🧩 Component Architecture

✨ Features

📈 Index Calculation

💰 Payout Formula

🚀 Quick Start

Environment Variables

🛠️ Tech Stack

📁 Project Structure

🤖 AI Agent Skills

🔗 Links

📄 License

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