The Omnibus spending bill of 2025 (BBB), that was signed into law on July 4th sought to repeal large amounts climate initiatives created under the Inflation Reduction Act, among other things. As of late 2025, studies that are investigating the possible effects of this are limited in scope largely focusing on GHG emissions such as C02, Nitrous, and Methane to name the big three. Aggregating these studies and extrapolating data out to a 10 year time frame to 2025 we find that keeping the BBB enacted results in approximately 8,900 million tons ADDED as a result of the BBB.
But what does this number mean?
This number is not really clear and methods of converting this number to insightful, relatable data such as health costs or lives lost is hard to do. A recent study recommends a baseline known as the 1,000 ton rule where for every 1,000 tons a person dies[1]. This method is non-sensical saying millions of Americans will die because of the BBB.
Connecting GHG emissions to things such as particulate emissions, particularly PM2.5 which has studies about human costs [2]. This project aims to connect GHG emissions and projects to particulate numbers in order to make clear conclusions about what is happening.
In short the three models are contained in the project:
- Regression [To be added here, done in minitab]
- Random Forest [Not used as the RF cannot predict outside training bounds]
- Prophet [This model developed by meta worked quite nicely as it is developed for time series data]
[1] J. M. Pearce and R. Parncutt, “Quantifying Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Human Deaths to Guide Energy Policy,” Energies, vol. 16, no. 16, p. 6074, Jan. 2023, doi: 10.3390/en16166074.
[2] J. Heo, P. J. Adams, and H. O. Gao, “Public Health Costs of Primary PM2.5 and Inorganic PM2.5 Precursor Emissions in the United States,” Environ. Sci. Technol., vol. 50, no. 11, pp. 6061–6070, June 2016, doi: 10.1021/acs.est.5b06125.