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<description><p>周度观点：本周A股股指整体震荡运行，沪深300微涨相对抗跌，上证50、中证500、中证1000均收跌。本周行情核心受中东地缘局势反复、美联储降息预期调整以及国内两会政策落地预期主导，市场呈现外围利空扰动与国内政策托底的博弈格局。展望后市，短期来看A股市场仍将处于外围利空扰动与国内政策利好预期支撑的博弈格局，中东地缘冲突的反复性仍将对市场风险偏好形成压制，不过外围扰动逐渐趋弱后市场逻辑将回归国内政策落地与经济数据验证，十五五规划完整文件的落地与政策的持续发力，将为股指提供较强的下方支撑。期指基差虽有小幅修复但仍处于历史低位，市场情绪尚未完全回暖，整体以震荡修复为主，等待新的主线信号出现。</p><p>重点关注：</p><p>1）十五五规划完整文件落地内容，及相关产业政策细则；</p><p>2）国内2月社零、工业增加值、固投等核心经济数据；</p><p>3）美联储3月议息会议表态及降息路径指引；</p><p>4）中东地缘冲突最新进展及国际油价走势；</p><p>5）A股年报披露窗口期的业绩分化情况。</p></description>
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<description><p class="CoverText"><span style="color:#000000"><a name="OLE_LINK5">本周 A </a></span>股市场呈现 “中小盘领优、大盘承压” 的显著分化格局，中证 500 指数表现最优。两市成交额先回落企稳后再度放量，交投活跃度维持高位。一方面，政策层面持续释放支持新兴产业、先进制造等领域的信号，叠加目前市场风险偏好较高、资金更青睐中小盘股指，推动中小盘股指持续走强；另一方面，针对市场过热可能引发大幅波动的情况，本周出现宽基ETF多次放量等降温操作，这类操作对大盘权重股的冲击更为显著，进一步加剧了大小盘指数的分化走势。</p><p class="CoverText">下周重点关注美联储 1 月议息会议，市场预期维持利率不变，核心看点为降息路径表述。此外，沪深 300 / 中证 500 比值触及近五年历史低位，复盘历史风格切换，政策导向、基本面的结构性变化与资金偏好迁移为核心驱动。短期预计中证 500 领优格局延续，操作上维持中性偏多思路，需警惕中小盘股指局部过热现象引发的技术性回调风险。</p></description>
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<description><p>2026年1月股指展望</p></description>
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<description><p><span style="font-size:10.5ptpx">由于地缘的不确定性以及通胀修复的压力，债市整体的趋势行情依然不明朗，利率进一步下行突破难度较大。本周随着市场对战争预期的大转向，我们发现在局势持续升级的过程中，国内货币政策空间的自主性以及相对对通胀压力更不敏感，债市表现不弱。但随着预期好转，风险资产的大幅反弹和未来通胀中枢上行的担忧反而会共同压制长端。<strong>因此即便目前超长端利率水平偏高，但当下押注趋势依然太过左侧，我们建议除了坚持波段思路外，关注近期流动性预期引发的结构机会。</strong></span></p></description>
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<description><p>本周机构行为对债市的托举力量较强，一方面从数据来看，大行持续买入中长期现券表现出较强的配置意愿；另一方面，消息上也多有利好，例如周中巴西央行开始买入中国国债的小作文在机构间传播，周五尾盘现券市场出现5000亿、万亿规模的买单疑似大行出手等。总体来说，主线混沌，“钱多”是近期债市的主要交易逻辑，这也将导致震荡格局的延续。</p></description>
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<description><p>债市在周初对海外因素进行了一次性的下跌计价，后续囿于国内宏观环境偏弱窄幅震荡。地缘影响的反复、国内宏观数据以及自律机制调整同业存款利率是本周主要关注的几大方向。</p><p>总体来看，当前债市依然偏逆风，但风险资产进一步调整的可能、依然偏乐观的国内货币预期以及还不能确认的内需修复依然限制了下方的空间，当前依旧以震荡行情对待。另外，近期中东引发的全球滞胀交易下，A债相比欧美格外强势。</p></description>
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<description><p>从价格水平来看，目前T主力2606价格位于25年11月初的前高附近，随着战争长期化，国际油价中枢上行带动的输入型通胀压力和国内通胀修复可能形成合力，成为中期维度下债市的担忧，后续对市场的扰动可能逐渐放大。另一方面，稳增长政策并未大幅加码，供给端基本可控，自去年12月以来公布的经济数据（PMI、金融信贷等）并不算强势，当下继续观察前两个月以及一季度数据表现，若偏弱格局延续，则债市下有支撑。短期内市场可能延续震荡，直到决出新的主线。</p></description>
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<pubDate>Sat, 07 Mar 2026 11:59:17 GMT</pubDate>
<author>高翔</author>
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<category>周度报告</category>
<category>国债</category>
<category>国债</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>南华国债周报：当“避险资产”成为风险本身20260208</title>
<description><p>近期债市不空，即便没有降准降息这样直接的增量边际推动行情，在本文所述逻辑和环境的支持下，利率向下走出技术性突破的可能性并不小。</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/nh/api/report/getReportFile?reportId=62190&filetitle=%E5%8D%97%E5%8D%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%80%BA%E5%91%A8%E6%8A%A5%EF%BC%9A%E5%BD%93%E2%80%9C%E9%81%BF%E9%99%A9%E8%B5%84%E4%BA%A7%E2%80%9D%E6%88%90%E4%B8%BA%E9%A3%8E%E9%99%A9%E6%9C%AC%E8%BA%AB20260208</link>
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<pubDate>Sun, 08 Feb 2026 07:00:54 GMT</pubDate>
<author>高翔</author>
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<category>周度报告</category>
<category>国债</category>
<category>国债</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>南华国债周报：如何定价“年内双降有空间”？20260124</title>
<description><p>总体来说，短期内中小盘可能继续上冲，难被压制，而对于债市来说，这或许意味着逢高止盈是更合适的思路。以10年期国债收益率为例，当前利率属于央行舒适区间（1.8%-1.9%）偏下沿，短期内不排除利率进一步下探，但越是接近区间下沿，追高的性价比就越低。</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/nh/api/report/getReportFile?reportId=62041&filetitle=%E5%8D%97%E5%8D%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%80%BA%E5%91%A8%E6%8A%A5%EF%BC%9A%E5%A6%82%E4%BD%95%E5%AE%9A%E4%BB%B7%E2%80%9C%E5%B9%B4%E5%86%85%E5%8F%8C%E9%99%8D%E6%9C%89%E7%A9%BA%E9%97%B4%E2%80%9D%EF%BC%9F20260124</link>
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<pubDate>Sun, 25 Jan 2026 12:28:56 GMT</pubDate>
<author>高翔</author>
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<category>周度报告</category>
<category>国债</category>
<category>国债</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>南华国债周报：风偏降温或难改震荡行情20260118</title>
<description><p>本周债市出现了新的博弈点。此前交易盘大多还是围绕着宽松预期拉扯，由于许多投资者依旧对开年降准抱有期待，通过观察公开市场操作情况来炒作宽松便是常规操作，而这样的交易思路终究只能知道偏短期的行情博弈。加上A股上调保证金在内，本周债市有两方面值得关注：1）以A股为代表的风险偏好下调；2）宏观层面“强现实”和“弱预期”的博弈。总体来看，尽管后半周债市相对强势，但在我们看来依旧缺乏足够硬的利多支撑，例如T2603即便后半周偏强，但周五依然多次上冲未果，没能有效突破区间上沿。结合央行发布会对于10年收益率1.8%-1.9%区间稳健运行的描述，短期内债市或延续震荡。</p></description>
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<pubDate>Sun, 18 Jan 2026 12:49:24 GMT</pubDate>
<author>高翔</author>
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<category>周度报告</category>
<category>国债</category>
<category>国债</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>南华国债周报：逢多不涨，遇空难跌20260109</title>
<description><p>本周债市在央行买债规模、物价数据等短期利空中平稳落地，市场并不算弱。但由于做多逻辑主线的缺失、风险资产的强势，当前不论是从胜率还是赔率来看，都不适合大规模参与，适度把握小的交易机会即可。</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/nh/api/report/getReportFile?reportId=61897&filetitle=%E5%8D%97%E5%8D%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%80%BA%E5%91%A8%E6%8A%A5%EF%BC%9A%E9%80%A2%E5%A4%9A%E4%B8%8D%E6%B6%A8%EF%BC%8C%E9%81%87%E7%A9%BA%E9%9A%BE%E8%B7%8C20260109</link>
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<pubDate>Sun, 11 Jan 2026 09:14:20 GMT</pubDate>
<author>高翔</author>
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<category>周度报告</category>
<category>国债</category>
<category>国债</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>南华国债周报：流动性行情兑现</title>
<description><p>本周债市延续上涨势头，周初国债期货价格上行突破压力位的同时成交持仓双双放量，后续市场成交转为清淡，但上行趋势延续。具体操作上，突破之后顺势延续偏多思路，但在上涨行情兑现之后，相比月初，乐观的程度要有所收敛。</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/nh/api/report/getReportFile?reportId=61792&filetitle=%E5%8D%97%E5%8D%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%80%BA%E5%91%A8%E6%8A%A5%EF%BC%9A%E6%B5%81%E5%8A%A8%E6%80%A7%E8%A1%8C%E6%83%85%E5%85%91%E7%8E%B020251214</link>
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<pubDate>Sun, 28 Dec 2025 17:00:28 GMT</pubDate>
<author>高翔</author>
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<category>周度报告</category>
<category>国债</category>
<category>国债</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>南华国债周报：政策预期博弈</title>
<description><p>整周来看，债市震荡微涨，但波动较大，最终的涨跌幅无法表现多空交锋的激烈程度。本周前半周债市整体呈修复行情，市场情绪明显改善，从价格来看，除超长端TL外，其余合约均已基本抹平上周四的跌幅，例如T2603合约周四早盘直线拉升后一度来找108.15上方，这一位置已经突破了前期窄幅震荡区间的上沿。而周四盘后由于中央经济工作会议落地，市场对政策基调、措辞等进行解读，周五全天债市大跌，市场情绪再度转弱。</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/nh/api/report/getReportFile?reportId=61620&filetitle=%E5%8D%97%E5%8D%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%80%BA%E5%91%A8%E6%8A%A5%EF%BC%9A%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96%E9%A2%84%E6%9C%9F%E5%8D%9A%E5%BC%8820251214</link>
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<pubDate>Mon, 15 Dec 2025 00:58:45 GMT</pubDate>
<author>高翔</author>
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<category>周度报告</category>
<category>国债</category>
<category>国债</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>南华国债周报：等待政策信号明确</title>
<description><p>等待政治局会议对于明年政策的表述，尤其是货币政策方面的措辞，若市场情绪得到安抚，行情有望逐渐企稳。</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/nh/api/report/getReportFile?reportId=61546&filetitle=%E5%8D%97%E5%8D%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%80%BA%E5%91%A8%E6%8A%A5%EF%BC%9A%E7%AD%89%E5%BE%85%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96%E4%BF%A1%E5%8F%B7%E6%98%8E%E7%A1%AE20251207</link>
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<pubDate>Sun, 07 Dec 2025 12:25:26 GMT</pubDate>
<author>高翔</author>
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<category>周度报告</category>
<category>国债</category>
<category>国债</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>南华国债周报：降波蓄势</title>
<description><p>维持年内对债市的积极判断，配置盘来说建议直接忽略短期波动持仓观望。</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/nh/api/report/getReportFile?reportId=61208&filetitle=%E5%8D%97%E5%8D%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%80%BA%E5%91%A8%E6%8A%A5%EF%BC%9A%E9%99%8D%E6%B3%A2%E8%93%84%E5%8A%BF20251115</link>
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<pubDate>Sat, 15 Nov 2025 05:09:30 GMT</pubDate>
<author>高翔</author>
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<category>周度报告</category>
<category>国债</category>
<category>国债</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>南华国债周报：回调后性价比显现，关注配置机会20251109</title>
<description><p>本周国债期货高位震荡之后，后半周有所回调。我们认为市场在消化了国债买卖的增量利空后缺乏进一步上行的推动，以及权益资产的超强韧性是主要原因。但中期来看，四季度债市没有明显的利空，我们对趋势行情抱有较为乐观的期待：基本面数据进一步走低以及全球避险情绪的走高会再一次点燃市场对货币政策的期待，而年末配置行情蓄势待发意味着机构行为端的支持。目前国债期货价格已经调整至央行恢复国债买卖后调控高开的缺口上方附近，性价比也已回归。</p></description>
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<pubDate>Sun, 09 Nov 2025 04:18:11 GMT</pubDate>
<author>高翔</author>
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<category>周度报告</category>
<category>国债</category>
<category>国债</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>南华国债周报：同时迎接压力与买点20251026</title>
<description><p>下周债市可能继续承压，但这同时也意味着我们将迎来四季度的配置机会。</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/nh/api/report/getReportFile?reportId=60873&filetitle=%E5%8D%97%E5%8D%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%80%BA%E5%91%A8%E6%8A%A5%EF%BC%9A%E5%90%8C%E6%97%B6%E8%BF%8E%E6%8E%A5%E5%8E%8B%E5%8A%9B%E4%B8%8E%E4%B9%B0%E7%82%B920251026</link>
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<pubDate>Sun, 26 Oct 2025 17:31:02 GMT</pubDate>
<author>高翔</author>
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<category>周度报告</category>
<category>国债</category>
<category>国债</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>国债：全球共振避险，关注结构机会与修复行情</title>
<description><p>本周在避险情绪的驱动下，债市有所修复。从前一周周末突然升级的中美关税冲突、海外风险事件以及国内风险资产的调整——在内外事件共振且共同指向避险情绪升温的情况下，本周国债期货有所上涨。从盘中走势来看，债市跟A股日内的负相关性再度走高，即“跷跷板效应”重新变得明显。全球避险黄金新高、债市30-10利差压缩、A股“高低切”，各类资产共同演绎升温的避险情绪，这似乎并不是巧合，这会给债市带来什么样的机会？</p><p>需要指明的是，我们认为当前不是追高的机会，债市真正的趋势修复行情可能还没到来——意外事件点燃避险情绪延续性仍有待观察，这就注定其难以成为最坚实的行情逻辑，未来需要关注的是政策端带来的确定性机会。</p></description>
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<pubDate>Sun, 19 Oct 2025 09:19:04 GMT</pubDate>
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<description><p>由于9月底为季报发布周，本周报告我们对9月下旬以来债市走势进行整体回顾。恰逢中美关税冲突再度“升级”，我们对“事件为何爆发？”、“双方关系是否再度转向恶化？”以及“后续会谈以及国内市场表现”等问题也进行讨论，一并收录在本期周报中。</p></description>
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<pubDate>Sat, 11 Oct 2025 09:28:36 GMT</pubDate>
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<title>南华国债周报：是修复而非反转20250914</title>
<description><p>周度观点：在后半周的连续上涨加上周五盘后利率下行后，我们认为趋势依然不能算是乐观转向。当前股债已经基本脱敏，债市目前最大的问题在于缺乏自身的做多逻辑。而仅仅依靠货币政策预期（买卖国债炒作）可能动能不足。</p><p>总结来说，第一，本周的利空主要来自监管政策，并且其中一部分是小作文并未被证实，因此市场在总体偏弱的情况下有些超跌，后半周的上涨更多是修复性质的。第二，事前投资者颇为关注本周宏观面的表现，不论是周中发布的通胀数据还是周五的金融数据，都呈现出继续局部改善但宏观环境未见转折的特征，不造成更多的利空。第三，本周“拯救”多头的依旧是货币政策预期和流动性，这表明当前的货币政策依旧是支持性的，但由于个人认为短期内重启买债的概率不大（即便重启也不会有去年底那般巨大影响），当前还不能说已经趋势转多。</p></description>
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<pubDate>Sun, 14 Sep 2025 13:10:36 GMT</pubDate>
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<title>南华国债周报：脱离“跷跷板”，回归单资产视角20250907</title>
<description><p>周度观点：债市依然延续情绪层面平稳改善+震荡行情的特征，但当下依旧建议用波段思路来操作，即以交易模式为主，快速上涨后果断、快速兑现浮盈，而非FOMO交易。对于行情的认知既要摒弃去年底以来的“每调买机”固有印象，也不需要像8月中下旬一样悲观。</p><p>关注区间：对标250011（10Y活跃券）1.745%—1.785%附近，T2512合约107.9—108.3附近的震荡区间做波段。Tips：日度级别的交易要在更窄的区间来做，快进快出。</p><p>本周关注：</p><p>1）周五美国非农坐实9月降息, A股可能进一步受到支撑</p><p>2）央行、财政部联合工作组第二次会议和周五一级发行情况偏弱。</p><p>3）流动性持续充裕，3M期买断式1万亿等量续作没有净投放。</p></description>
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<pubDate>Sun, 07 Sep 2025 01:53:16 GMT</pubDate>
<author>高翔</author>
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<title>南华国债周报：下跌背后的风偏脱敏20250824</title>
<description><p>跟周涨跌反映的结果恰恰相反，本周债市其实是止跌震荡整理的姿态。仔细看到债市周度走势，不难发现绝大部分的跌幅集中在周一，以10年期活跃券250011为例，周一全天利率大幅上行约4bp来到1.785%高位，而后几经震荡最终周五收在同一点位。而周一的大跌其实是对前一周货币政策执行报告中删去“择机购买国债”等偏空影响的滞后反映，因此本周债市实际表现为震荡。再结合本周股市的强势行情，不难得出结论：债市正在对A股表现逐渐脱敏，若后续情绪得到进一步释放，则有望回归独立行情。另外，对于仓位较轻的投资者，建议关注T主力合约的超跌反弹行情。</p></description>
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<pubDate>Sun, 24 Aug 2025 11:07:05 GMT</pubDate>
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<description><p>本周国内宏观数据陆续发布，公布情况不佳。同时需求端政策继续落地，经营贷、消费贷贴息政策进一步落实六月底《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》。海外方面，在数据波动之下FED降息预期摇摆，另外8月15日开始美俄元首会晤据说进展良好，但未能达成实际协议，后续地缘进展值得关注。</p></description>
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<pubDate>Sun, 17 Aug 2025 12:26:59 GMT</pubDate>
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<title>硅铁&硅锰：震荡偏弱，关注下方成本支撑</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日硅铁主力收盘价5684，环比-1.42%，持仓量19.57万手，环比+15.62%，仓单10512手，环比-2.16%；今日硅锰主力收盘价6122，环比-1.73%，持仓量27.19万手，环比-6.33%，仓单55573手，环比+2.21%
</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>港口锰矿报价有所下调，焦煤价格近期下跌较多和港口锰矿价格下跌，硅锰和硅铁的上涨动力减弱，铁合金基本面看，供应端上周硅铁产量环比-1.17%，硅锰产量环比-6.64%，近期锰业协会会议召开，锰系合金行业产能严重过剩且逆势扩张，进口锰矿价格飙升，合金产品价格持续低位，企业普遍持续亏损，号召节能减排30%，修复市场生态，尽管近期铁合金利润边际恢复并没有看到硅锰企业产量的回升，反而产量继续下降；硅铁产量相比之前有所恢复，主要原因硅铁除了炼钢需求还有非炼钢需求（镁锭）的支撑，镁锭产量1-2月累计产量20.83万吨，累计同比+38.92% ，而硅锰下游相对单一，供应端仍维持减产的情况下铁合金下方存在支撑。需求端，目前钢材盈利率继续回升，钢厂盈利率为48.05%，环比提升4.76个百分点，连续三周回升，接近半数企业盈利，显示行业盈利面持续扩大，以及金三银四旺季的季节性规律，铁水预计呈现回升的趋势，铁水铁合金需求存在一定支撑。库存端，硅铁库存中性累库，企业库存6.16万吨，环比+12.10%；硅锰库存37.18万吨，环比-0.26%，库存同期仍处于近5年历史同期最高水平，去库压力相对较大，好在硅锰维持低产策略和需求端的缓慢回升，硅锰库存可能缓慢去库 。</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>观望</p></description>
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<pubDate>Thu, 09 Apr 2026 09:08:03 GMT</pubDate>
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<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日螺纹主力收盘价3096，环比-0.58%，持仓量132.47万手，环比+8.47%，仓单101090手，环比+0.27%；今日热卷主力收盘价3270，环比-0.37%，持仓量99.76万手，环比+3.14%，仓单556337手，环比+0.11%；
</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>现货成交一般，炉料端价格的走弱，焦煤端交割压力相对较大，供应过剩预期强化；铁矿端受到谈判预期的影响。但目前钢材盈利率继续回升，钢厂盈利率为48.05%，环比提升4.76个百分点，连续三周回升，接近半数企业盈利，显示行业盈利面持续扩大，以及金三银四旺季的季节性规律，铁水预计呈现回升的趋势，铁水需求端是存在对炉料端的支撑，铁矿下方存在支撑。但板材的高库存以及高仓单尤其是对热卷价格上方形成压力，如果在05合约交割前大量仓单仍没有注销，钢材仍会形成压力。 </p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>观望</p></description>
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<item>
<title>焦煤：向下寻找支撑</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>焦煤05合约大跌，创下近期新低，5日均线处有压力。</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>煤市呈现“产地暖、港口僵”的分化格局，鄂尔多斯成了涨价“领头羊”：电煤长协履约踩油门，市场煤招标量猛增，个别贸易商忙着囤煤，站台发运量飙到“正常偏高”档；煤矿库存加速消化，尤其是沫煤成了“香饽饽”，超10%的样本矿跟风涨价，降价矿彻底消失，坑口行情暖得明显。</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>焦煤供给端，国内煤矿复产，蒙煤进口维持高位，形成供给压力。需求端，铁水产量强于季节性，钢材需求有韧性，支撑焦炭首轮提涨落地。但钢厂对继续提涨抵触较强。库存方面，口岸库存偏高，但海煤进口窗口关闭。当前盘面价格已较充分反映交割及供给压力，前期高估值溢价回落。操作上，考虑空单逢低止盈，并可关注低位做多机会。</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=c2d779ef8ea04373286b6640a1aedb21</link>
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<pubDate>Thu, 09 Apr 2026 07:20:34 GMT</pubDate>
<author>周甫翰</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>焦煤</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>硅铁&硅锰：震荡走弱，关注下方支撑</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日硅铁主力收盘价5766，环比-1.7%，持仓量16.93万手，环比+16.08%，仓单10744手，环比+7.31%；今日硅锰主力收盘价6230，环比-2.53%，持仓量29.03万手，环比-10.31%，仓单54369手，环比+0.29%
</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>港口锰矿报价有所下调，锰矿天津港澳矿-1元/吨度，加蓬-0.2元/吨度，南非半碳酸矿-0.3元/吨度，焦煤价格近期下跌较多和港口锰矿价格下跌，硅锰和硅铁的上涨动力减弱</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>铁合金上涨动能减弱，短期回调后关注下方支撑</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=d1c254c3874173058581dee7925c1003</link>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=d1c254c3874173058581dee7925c1003</guid>
<pubDate>Wed, 08 Apr 2026 08:46:42 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>硅铁</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>螺纹&热卷：震荡偏弱，关注下方支撑</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日螺纹主力收盘价3114，环比-0.03%，持仓量122.13万手，环比+9.74%，仓单100813手，环比+1.2%；今日热卷主力收盘价3282，环比+0.21%，持仓量96.72万手，环比+4.47%，仓单555751手，环比-0.16%；
</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>现货成交一般，炉料端价格的走弱，焦煤端交割压力相对较大，供应过剩预期强化；铁矿端受到谈判预期的影响。但目前钢材盈利率继续回升，钢厂盈利率为48.05%，环比提升4.76个百分点，连续三周回升，接近半数企业盈利，显示行业盈利面持续扩大，以及金三银四旺季的季节性规律，铁水预计呈现回升的趋势，铁水需求端是存在对炉料端的支撑，铁矿下方存在支撑。但板材的高库存以及高仓单尤其是对热卷价格上方形成压力，如果在05合约交割前大量仓单仍没有注销，对钢材仍会形成压力。</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>观望</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=6cceede3107f53ac307e0cf2964d3070</link>
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<pubDate>Wed, 08 Apr 2026 08:46:37 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>螺纹钢</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>油料：反套延续</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>原油下跌带动油脂下跌，内外盘回落</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>对于国内豆粕，现货方面，盘面情绪回落，今日豆粕总体成交转淡，现货采购走弱。全国来看，整体油厂大豆库存回落，国内油厂压榨回升，但后续存在季节性检修计划，豆粕库存回落。下游库存备货后，成交情绪回落。菜粕端来看，菜籽买船利润高位，供应存在回归预期。</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>种植面积超预期调减，生柴与出口需求支撑，库存进一步锁紧预期下外盘偏强。内盘来看，短期M05近月跟随现货情绪走弱，中期M07巴西宽松供应逻辑未变，远月M09重心转向美豆种植。菜系在豆菜粕价差拉大后重回性价比，豆菜粕价差修复，月差间反套回归。
</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=fe8dbddb1a56f3080173875c1c5901af</link>
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<pubDate>Thu, 02 Apr 2026 08:42:34 GMT</pubDate>
<author>靳晚冬</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>焦煤</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>硅铁&硅锰：港口锰矿价格下调</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日硅铁主力收盘价5822，环比-0.89%，持仓量15.17万手，环比-4.55%，仓单10113手，环比-1.12%；
今日硅锰主力收盘价6380，环比-0.99%，持仓量33.1万手，环比-6.4%，仓单54238手，环比+0%</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>港口锰矿价格下调，天津澳矿环比-1美元/吨度，加蓬-0.3美元/吨度，南非半碳酸矿-0.5美元/吨度，原油能化板块和焦煤价格的大幅下跌，带动铁合金的成本下移</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>逢高做缩双硅价差</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=08bb42a242d535b301a9e371140822a4</link>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=08bb42a242d535b301a9e371140822a4</guid>
<pubDate>Wed, 01 Apr 2026 09:04:42 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>硅铁</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>螺纹&热卷：供需双弱限制上涨空间，震荡走弱</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日螺纹主力收盘价3120，环比-0.03%，持仓量87.02万手，环比-3.43%，仓单99613手，环比+0%；
今日热卷主力收盘价3287，环比-0.21%，持仓量72.49万手，环比-6.23%，仓单549618手，环比+0%；</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>现货成交整体一般，原油能化板块价格大幅下跌带动大宗商品走弱，近期焦煤价格大幅下跌成材的成本支撑减弱，板材的高库存以及高仓单尤其是对热卷价格上方形成压力，如果后续去库不及预期钢材价格可能回落，钢材自身的供需双弱限制上涨空间。供应端铁水产量本周回复回升，环比+1.28%，热卷产量环比+1.79%，螺纹产量环比-2.68%。目前钢厂盈利率在 40%左右，铁水产量大幅增加的可能性不大，但还不至于开始减产，铁水产量预计缓慢爬升。需求端，房地产的主要政策还是稳房价，控增量和去库存，新开工面积的持续走弱对螺纹钢的需求难以有超预期的改善，专项债与超长期国债和去年持平，基建更多起到托底的作用。近期钢材港口出港量回落，钢材出口接单下滑，油价上涨可能助推通胀海外降息预期时间延迟，以及近期人民价格的升值，热卷出口利润下滑，钢材出口面临压力。钢材需求的走弱，定价逻辑可能更多的在于炉料端，钢厂利润可能继续回落。</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>逢高做缩卷螺价差</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=bf35568942211be6382dd8f9c7fb2b25</link>
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<pubDate>Wed, 01 Apr 2026 09:04:37 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>螺纹钢</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>焦煤：短期跌速过快</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>焦煤午后价格闪崩，主要跟随原油走势，随着战争缓和的可能性增加，能源溢价去除。日线六连阴。</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>焦煤跟随能源预期继续下跌，目前价格已经接近战前水平，能源溢价已经抹去。期货下跌后，焦煤基差快速修复。需要关注降价后，对现货需求的拉动和对库存的去化。后续需要关注甘其毛都口岸的库存情况。本期铁水产量预计继续回升，对煤焦下方需求有补库支撑。</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>预计下方空间并不悲观，短期跌速过快有反弹的可能，空单考虑适时止盈。</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=eb2b32ca42155c30f99f19a77c1c807c</link>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=eb2b32ca42155c30f99f19a77c1c807c</guid>
<pubDate>Wed, 01 Apr 2026 07:46:13 GMT</pubDate>
<author>周甫翰</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>焦煤</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>硅铁&硅锰：压力位回落</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日硅铁主力收盘价5874，环比-3.17%，持仓量15.89万手，环比-7.38%，仓单10228手，环比-0.15%；今日硅锰主力收盘价6444，环比-2.19%，持仓量35.36万手，环比-3.62%，仓单54238手，环比-1.44%
</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>今日受到宏观情绪影响，市场传可能结束战争，大宗商品高位大幅下跌，带动前期上涨较多的品种回落，铁合金今日下跌，但锰矿港口价格依旧坚挺，硅锰下方仍存在成本支撑。</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>观望</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=f685c1f265b8db0863875a6b6711b9e4</link>
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<pubDate>Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:15:36 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>硅铁</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>螺纹&热卷：移仓换月中</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日螺纹主力收盘价3121，环比-0.57%，持仓量90.11万手，环比-7.72%，仓单99613手，环比+0%；今日热卷主力收盘价3294，环比-0.42%，持仓量77.31万手，环比-8.71%，仓单549618手，环比+0%；
</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>今日钢材现货整体成交一般偏弱，低价刚需拿货为主，今日受到宏观情绪影响，炉料端铁矿、焦煤价格回落，对钢材成本支撑减弱，板材的高库存以及高仓单尤其是对热卷价格上方形成压力，如果后续去库不及预期钢材价格可能回落，钢材自身的供需双弱限制上涨空间。2026年1-2月份，国内钢铁行业利润累计值为-24.7亿元，同比增幅-59.35%，钢厂利润不佳，刚才难以涨价</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>逢高做缩卷螺差</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=9c1779754e715bc64fd1eacbe1fb9599</link>
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<pubDate>Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:15:35 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>螺纹钢</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>硅铁&硅锰：成本支撑上移，震荡偏强</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日硅铁主力收盘价6066，环比+0.9%，持仓量17.16万手，环比+2.72%，仓单10243手，环比+0.52%；今日硅锰主力收盘价6588，环比+0.12%，持仓量36.69万手，环比-3.76%，仓单55028手，环比-0.11%
</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>铁合金的主要逻辑并没有改变，成本端锰矿和能源的双轮驱动，港口锰矿报价继续坚挺上调，锰矿天津港澳矿+2.5元/吨度，加蓬+1.5元/吨度，南非半碳酸矿+2.8元/吨度；上周内蒙化工焦报价上涨50元/吨，陕西兰炭报价上涨65元/吨，进一步推高成本。近期市场传言澳大利亚燃油紧张，燃油供给需要更长的周期和更长的航线运费，迫使铁矿石开采商减少商业活动，如果消息属实也可能传递到澳洲的锰矿开采。铁合金基本面看，供应端上周硅铁产量环比-2.20%，硅锰产量环比-2.31%，近期锰业协会会议召开，锰系合金行业产能严重过剩且逆势扩张，进口锰矿价格飙升，合金产品价格持续低位，企业普遍持续亏损，号召节能减排30%，修复市场生态，尽管近期铁合金利润边际恢复并没有看到硅锰企业产量的回升，反而产量继续下降；硅铁产量相比之前有所恢复，主要原因硅铁除了炼钢需求还有非炼钢需求（镁锭）的支撑，镁锭产量1-2月累计产量20.83万吨，累计同比+38.92% ，而硅锰下游相对单一。需求端，目前钢厂盈利率大概40%，大幅增产的可能性不大，虽然目前高炉利润在累库趋势下和炉料端的上涨有所回落，铁水还不至于马上开始减产，对铁合金需求存在一定支撑，但支撑作用或有限在粗钢调控的背景下。库存端，硅铁库存中性去库，企业库存5.49万吨，环比-7.49%；硅锰库存37.28万吨，环比-3.11%，库存同期仍处于近5年历史同期最高水平，去库压力相对较大，好在硅锰维持低产策略和需求端的缓慢回升，硅锰库存可能缓慢去库 。锰矿价格矿商挺价，价格坚挺，在地缘局势尚未明朗的情况下，战争还没结束，铁合金成本支撑逻辑仍存，硅锰除了能源成本还有锰矿的成本抬升，会比硅铁多一个成本支撑逻辑，可能偏强于硅铁。</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>观望</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=a076757bdbd32b5022fd5a8926fed09a</link>
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<pubDate>Mon, 30 Mar 2026 23:40:33 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>硅铁</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>螺纹&热卷：成本支撑，供需双弱限制上涨空间</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日螺纹主力收盘价3139，环比+0.48%，持仓量97.64万手，环比-9.27%，仓单99613手，环比+0%；今日热卷主力收盘价3308，环比+0.27%，持仓量84.68万手，环比-7.91%，仓单549618手，环比+1.19%；
</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>现货成交整体一般，低价成交较好，投机和终端都有拿货，基差维稳定，材价格维持震荡，主要逻辑还是在于在于炉料端的成本抬升推动并没有改变。伊朗地缘政治冲突强化了煤炭的能源属性，油价带动了焦煤价格的上涨，伊朗地缘政治短期内如果不能解决对焦煤存在价格支撑。铁矿限矿流通货库存相对偏紧，下游又面临节后补库的需求，以及中东局势助推海运费价格的上涨，对铁矿价格形成支撑。短期看，炉料端焦煤、铁矿价格价格的上涨，对钢材价格形成成本支撑，但板材的高库存以及高仓单尤其是对热卷价格上方形成压力，如果后续去库不及预期钢材价格可能回落，钢材自身的供需双弱限制上涨空间。供应端铁水产量本周回复回升，环比+1.28%，热卷产量环比+1.79%，螺纹产量环比-2.68%。目前钢厂盈利率在40%左右，铁水产量大幅增加的可能性不大，但还不至于开始减产，铁水产量预计缓慢爬升，炉料端成本的上涨，高炉利润边际走弱，若利润继续走弱对后续供应端产量有一定的压力。</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>观望</p></description>
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<pubDate>Mon, 30 Mar 2026 23:40:30 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>螺纹钢</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>硅铁&硅锰：成本支撑，价格重心上移</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日硅铁主力收盘价6012，环比+0.5%，持仓量16.7万手，环比-2.73%；今日硅锰主力收盘价6580，环比+2.27%，持仓量38.11万手，环比+0.15%
</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>目前铁合金上涨的逻辑在于成本支撑和短期的供需错配，海外锰矿报价上调、澳洲飓风扰动发运，叠加海运费上行，港口锰矿价格坚挺走高；前期铁合金利润亏损，供应端维持低位，而节后铁水面临复工复产，造成短期供需错配</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>逢高做缩双硅价差</p></description>
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<pubDate>Fri, 27 Mar 2026 09:00:30 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>硅铁</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>螺纹&热卷：成本支撑</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日螺纹主力收盘价3124，环比-0.13%，持仓量107.62万手，环比-7.8%，仓单99613手，环比+1.55%；今日热卷主力收盘价3299，环比-0.18%，持仓量91.95万手，环比-4.44%，仓单543161手，环比+1.09%；</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>钢材现货成交整体一般偏弱，盘面连续下跌，投机情绪转弱；炉料端焦煤、铁矿价格价格的上涨，对钢材价格形成成本支撑，但板材的高库存以及高仓单尤其是对热卷价格上方形成压力，如果后续去库不及预期钢材价格可能回落。本周钢材库存开始去库，库存压力边际缓解。 目前钢厂盈利率在 40%左右，铁水产量大幅增加的可能性不大，但还不至于开始减产，铁水产量预计缓慢爬升，炉料端成本的上涨，高炉利润边际走弱，若利润继续走弱对后续供应端产量有一定的压力，钢材定价逻辑可能更多的在于炉料端</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>观望</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=58d3f6334e9bdc9242b881ce2ffc1682</link>
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<pubDate>Fri, 27 Mar 2026 09:00:27 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>螺纹钢</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>油料：资金逐渐换月</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>中美谈判预期延续，外盘跟随反弹，内盘资金换月。</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>对于国内豆粕，现货方面，盘面情绪回落，现货采购走弱。全国来看，整体油厂大豆库存回落，国内油厂压榨回升，但后续存在季节性检修计划，豆粕库存回落。下游库存备货后，成交情绪回落。
菜粕端来看，菜籽买船利润高位，供应存在回归预期。华南地区逐渐接近水产备货季节,今年水产投苗较早，有望提前启动需求；另外豆菜粕价差拉大后菜粕重回性价比。</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>4月中美谈判延后，外盘关注生柴政策会议以及月末种植面积。内盘来看，短期受产地巴西发运或逐渐恢复进度，但加油受阻与运费上涨影响现货挺价。中期看整体大供应逻辑未变。菜系在豆菜粕价差拉大后重回性价比，豆菜粕价差修复。月差间反套持有。</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=817fccd834f01fb5e1770c8679c0824e</link>
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<pubDate>Fri, 27 Mar 2026 09:00:23 GMT</pubDate>
<author>靳晚冬</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>焦煤</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>硅铁&硅锰：成本支撑</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日硅铁主力收盘价6088，环比-0.2%，持仓量17.48万手，环比-1.82%，仓单10352手，环比+1.47%；今日硅锰主力收盘价6492，环比+0.19%，持仓量39.24万手，环比-3.49%，仓单55440手，环比+2.03%；
</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>目前铁合金上涨的逻辑在于成本支撑和短期的供需错配，海外锰矿报价上调、加蓬出口生态税扰动、澳洲飓风扰动发运，叠加海运费上行，港口锰矿价格坚挺走高；前期铁合金利润亏损，供应端维持低位，而节后铁水面临复工复产，造成短期供需错配</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>观望</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=b32c15c320e33b884b66800f01d8d8dd</link>
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<pubDate>Thu, 26 Mar 2026 08:41:39 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>硅铁</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>螺纹&热卷：螺纹仓单继续增加</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日螺纹主力收盘价3128，环比-0.13%，持仓量116.72万手，环比-3.32%，仓单98088手，环比+6.27%；
今日热卷主力收盘价3305，环比-0.24%，持仓量96.23万手，环比-4.07%，仓单537279手，环比+1.67%；
</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>今日钢材现货成交整体一般偏弱，环比昨日略有好转，低价成交尚可，刚需低价拿货，整体基差微扩，目前钢材的主要逻辑还是在于成本驱动逻辑，今日市场传言仍不同意核心诉求使用人民币结算，并准备减产，下调发运目标，铁矿价格小幅反弹，但成材仍偏弱。</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>观望</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=51e9d6dcb1f96cc3d5fe2af893ce7790</link>
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<pubDate>Thu, 26 Mar 2026 08:41:38 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>螺纹钢</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>油料：资金逐渐换月</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>美豆油走强，外盘由于中美谈判预期反弹，内盘小幅反弹。</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>对于国内豆粕，现货方面，盘面情绪回落，现货采购走弱。全国来看，整体油厂大豆库存回落，国内油厂压榨回升，但后续存在季节性检修计划，豆粕库存回落。下游库存备货后，成交情绪回落。
菜粕端来看，菜籽买船利润高位，供应存在回归预期。华南地区逐渐接近水产备货季节,今年水产投苗较早，有望提前启动需求；另外豆菜粕价差拉大后菜粕重回性价比。
</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>4月中美谈判延后，外盘关注生柴政策会议以及月末种植面积。内盘来看，短期受产地巴西发运或逐渐恢复进度，但加油受阻与运费上涨影响现货挺价。中期看整体大供应逻辑未变。菜系在豆菜粕价差拉大后重回性价比，豆菜粕价差修复。月差间反套持有。
</p></description>
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<pubDate>Thu, 26 Mar 2026 08:40:53 GMT</pubDate>
<author>靳晚冬</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>焦煤</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>螺纹&热卷：成本支撑，但上涨空间有限</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日螺纹主力收盘价3145，环比-0.29%，持仓量126.35万手，环比-6.5%，仓单80114手，环比+4.79%；今日热卷主力收盘价3324，环比-0.18%，持仓量102.43万手，环比-2.95%，仓单525512手，环比-0.06%；
</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>现货成交整体一般，环比昨日转弱，盘面微跌，基差微扩，投机和终端拿货情绪较上周好转。伊朗地缘政治冲突强化了煤炭的能源属性，油价带动了焦煤价格的上涨，伊朗地缘政治短期内如果不能解决对焦煤存在价格支撑。铁矿限矿流通货库存相对偏紧，下游又面临节后补库的需求，以及中东局势助推海运费价格的上涨，对铁矿价格形成支撑。短期看，炉料端焦煤、铁矿价格价格的上涨，对钢材价格形成成本支撑，但板材的高库存以及高仓单尤其是对热卷价格上方形成压力，如果后续去库不及预期钢材价格可能回落。</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>观望</p></description>
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<pubDate>Tue, 24 Mar 2026 08:54:49 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
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<pubDate>Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:05:20 GMT</pubDate>
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<pubDate>Mon, 30 Mar 2026 01:25:21 GMT</pubDate>
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<pubDate>Mon, 30 Mar 2026 01:25:21 GMT</pubDate>
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<pubDate>Fri, 27 Mar 2026 09:00:28 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈嘉宁</author>
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<pubDate>Wed, 25 Mar 2026 00:54:07 GMT</pubDate>
<author>靳晚冬</author>
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<pubDate>Tue, 24 Mar 2026 08:25:20 GMT</pubDate>
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<pubDate>Mon, 23 Mar 2026 05:31:19 GMT</pubDate>
<author>边舒扬</author>
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<pubDate>Sun, 22 Mar 2026 23:00:55 GMT</pubDate>
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<description><p>本周行情核心由外围扰动主导，美联储 3 月议息会议鹰派表态、中东地缘局势持续，市场受外围流动性边际收紧压制，股指整体震荡走弱，中小盘高弹性板块调整幅度更大，大盘股指凭借防御属性展现相对抗跌性，市场交投情绪偏弱，期指深贴水延续，反映外围扰动下风险偏好持续低迷。美联储 3 月议息会议释放明确鹰派信号，多位委员倾向年内不降息，同时经济预测上调增长与通胀预期，鲍威尔强调通胀回落不及预期，全球流动性边际收紧预期进一步固化，对 A 股形成压制，高估值成长板块承压尤为明显。国内 2 月经济数据显示生产、消费、投资同步改善，经济复苏韧性显现，但暂未形成强驱动。中长期来看，美联储降息预期调整仅为节奏延缓而非政策转向，A 股稳增长政策持续发力、流动性合理充裕的主线逻辑并未改变，外部扰动更多带来阶段性波动。短期市场仍以震荡修复为主，下方有政策利好预期托底，上方受外部不确定性压制，建议控制仓位、谨慎观望，把握多 IF 空 IM 跨品种套利机会，等待情绪回暖与主线明朗。</p><p></p><p>重点关注：</p><p>1）中东冲突最新进展；</p><p>2）2月工业企业利润数据；</p><p>3）2025年财报披露窗口期，关注行业业绩变化与趋势。</p></description>
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<description><p>周度观点：本周A股股指整体震荡运行，沪深300微涨相对抗跌，上证50、中证500、中证1000均收跌。本周行情核心受中东地缘局势反复、美联储降息预期调整以及国内两会政策落地预期主导，市场呈现外围利空扰动与国内政策托底的博弈格局。展望后市，短期来看A股市场仍将处于外围利空扰动与国内政策利好预期支撑的博弈格局，中东地缘冲突的反复性仍将对市场风险偏好形成压制，不过外围扰动逐渐趋弱后市场逻辑将回归国内政策落地与经济数据验证，十五五规划完整文件的落地与政策的持续发力，将为股指提供较强的下方支撑。期指基差虽有小幅修复但仍处于历史低位，市场情绪尚未完全回暖，整体以震荡修复为主，等待新的主线信号出现。</p><p>重点关注：</p><p>1）十五五规划完整文件落地内容，及相关产业政策细则；</p><p>2）国内2月社零、工业增加值、固投等核心经济数据；</p><p>3）美联储3月议息会议表态及降息路径指引；</p><p>4）中东地缘冲突最新进展及国际油价走势；</p><p>5）A股年报披露窗口期的业绩分化情况。</p></description>
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<description><p class="CoverText"><span style="color:#000000"><a name="OLE_LINK5">本周 A </a></span>股市场呈现 “中小盘领优、大盘承压” 的显著分化格局，中证 500 指数表现最优。两市成交额先回落企稳后再度放量，交投活跃度维持高位。一方面，政策层面持续释放支持新兴产业、先进制造等领域的信号，叠加目前市场风险偏好较高、资金更青睐中小盘股指，推动中小盘股指持续走强；另一方面，针对市场过热可能引发大幅波动的情况，本周出现宽基ETF多次放量等降温操作，这类操作对大盘权重股的冲击更为显著，进一步加剧了大小盘指数的分化走势。</p><p class="CoverText">下周重点关注美联储 1 月议息会议，市场预期维持利率不变，核心看点为降息路径表述。此外，沪深 300 / 中证 500 比值触及近五年历史低位，复盘历史风格切换，政策导向、基本面的结构性变化与资金偏好迁移为核心驱动。短期预计中证 500 领优格局延续，操作上维持中性偏多思路，需警惕中小盘股指局部过热现象引发的技术性回调风险。</p></description>
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<description><p><span style="font-size:10.5ptpx">由于地缘的不确定性以及通胀修复的压力，债市整体的趋势行情依然不明朗，利率进一步下行突破难度较大。本周随着市场对战争预期的大转向，我们发现在局势持续升级的过程中，国内货币政策空间的自主性以及相对对通胀压力更不敏感，债市表现不弱。但随着预期好转，风险资产的大幅反弹和未来通胀中枢上行的担忧反而会共同压制长端。<strong>因此即便目前超长端利率水平偏高，但当下押注趋势依然太过左侧，我们建议除了坚持波段思路外，关注近期流动性预期引发的结构机会。</strong></span></p></description>
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<pubDate>Mon, 06 Apr 2026 09:27:54 GMT</pubDate>
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<description><p>本周机构行为对债市的托举力量较强，一方面从数据来看，大行持续买入中长期现券表现出较强的配置意愿；另一方面，消息上也多有利好，例如周中巴西央行开始买入中国国债的小作文在机构间传播，周五尾盘现券市场出现5000亿、万亿规模的买单疑似大行出手等。总体来说，主线混沌，“钱多”是近期债市的主要交易逻辑，这也将导致震荡格局的延续。</p></description>
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<description><p>债市在周初对海外因素进行了一次性的下跌计价，后续囿于国内宏观环境偏弱窄幅震荡。地缘影响的反复、国内宏观数据以及自律机制调整同业存款利率是本周主要关注的几大方向。</p><p>总体来看，当前债市依然偏逆风，但风险资产进一步调整的可能、依然偏乐观的国内货币预期以及还不能确认的内需修复依然限制了下方的空间，当前依旧以震荡行情对待。另外，近期中东引发的全球滞胀交易下，A债相比欧美格外强势。</p></description>
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<description><p>从价格水平来看，目前T主力2606价格位于25年11月初的前高附近，随着战争长期化，国际油价中枢上行带动的输入型通胀压力和国内通胀修复可能形成合力，成为中期维度下债市的担忧，后续对市场的扰动可能逐渐放大。另一方面，稳增长政策并未大幅加码，供给端基本可控，自去年12月以来公布的经济数据（PMI、金融信贷等）并不算强势，当下继续观察前两个月以及一季度数据表现，若偏弱格局延续，则债市下有支撑。短期内市场可能延续震荡，直到决出新的主线。</p></description>
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<pubDate>Sat, 07 Mar 2026 11:59:17 GMT</pubDate>
<author>高翔</author>
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<title>南华国债周报：当“避险资产”成为风险本身20260208</title>
<description><p>近期债市不空，即便没有降准降息这样直接的增量边际推动行情，在本文所述逻辑和环境的支持下，利率向下走出技术性突破的可能性并不小。</p></description>
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<pubDate>Sun, 08 Feb 2026 07:00:54 GMT</pubDate>
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<description><p>总体来说，短期内中小盘可能继续上冲，难被压制，而对于债市来说，这或许意味着逢高止盈是更合适的思路。以10年期国债收益率为例，当前利率属于央行舒适区间（1.8%-1.9%）偏下沿，短期内不排除利率进一步下探，但越是接近区间下沿，追高的性价比就越低。</p></description>
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<description><p>本周债市出现了新的博弈点。此前交易盘大多还是围绕着宽松预期拉扯，由于许多投资者依旧对开年降准抱有期待，通过观察公开市场操作情况来炒作宽松便是常规操作，而这样的交易思路终究只能知道偏短期的行情博弈。加上A股上调保证金在内，本周债市有两方面值得关注：1）以A股为代表的风险偏好下调；2）宏观层面“强现实”和“弱预期”的博弈。总体来看，尽管后半周债市相对强势，但在我们看来依旧缺乏足够硬的利多支撑，例如T2603即便后半周偏强，但周五依然多次上冲未果，没能有效突破区间上沿。结合央行发布会对于10年收益率1.8%-1.9%区间稳健运行的描述，短期内债市或延续震荡。</p></description>
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<pubDate>Sun, 18 Jan 2026 12:49:24 GMT</pubDate>
<author>高翔</author>
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<category>周度报告</category>
<category>国债</category>
<category>国债</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>南华国债周报：逢多不涨，遇空难跌20260109</title>
<description><p>本周债市在央行买债规模、物价数据等短期利空中平稳落地，市场并不算弱。但由于做多逻辑主线的缺失、风险资产的强势，当前不论是从胜率还是赔率来看，都不适合大规模参与，适度把握小的交易机会即可。</p></description>
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<pubDate>Sun, 11 Jan 2026 09:14:20 GMT</pubDate>
<author>高翔</author>
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<category>周度报告</category>
<category>国债</category>
<category>国债</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>南华国债周报：流动性行情兑现</title>
<description><p>本周债市延续上涨势头，周初国债期货价格上行突破压力位的同时成交持仓双双放量，后续市场成交转为清淡，但上行趋势延续。具体操作上，突破之后顺势延续偏多思路，但在上涨行情兑现之后，相比月初，乐观的程度要有所收敛。</p></description>
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<pubDate>Sun, 28 Dec 2025 17:00:28 GMT</pubDate>
<author>高翔</author>
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<category>周度报告</category>
<category>国债</category>
<category>国债</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>南华国债周报：政策预期博弈</title>
<description><p>整周来看，债市震荡微涨，但波动较大，最终的涨跌幅无法表现多空交锋的激烈程度。本周前半周债市整体呈修复行情，市场情绪明显改善，从价格来看，除超长端TL外，其余合约均已基本抹平上周四的跌幅，例如T2603合约周四早盘直线拉升后一度来找108.15上方，这一位置已经突破了前期窄幅震荡区间的上沿。而周四盘后由于中央经济工作会议落地，市场对政策基调、措辞等进行解读，周五全天债市大跌，市场情绪再度转弱。</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/nh/api/report/getReportFile?reportId=61620&filetitle=%E5%8D%97%E5%8D%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%80%BA%E5%91%A8%E6%8A%A5%EF%BC%9A%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96%E9%A2%84%E6%9C%9F%E5%8D%9A%E5%BC%8820251214</link>
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<pubDate>Mon, 15 Dec 2025 00:58:45 GMT</pubDate>
<author>高翔</author>
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<category>周度报告</category>
<category>国债</category>
<category>国债</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>南华国债周报：等待政策信号明确</title>
<description><p>等待政治局会议对于明年政策的表述，尤其是货币政策方面的措辞，若市场情绪得到安抚，行情有望逐渐企稳。</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/nh/api/report/getReportFile?reportId=61546&filetitle=%E5%8D%97%E5%8D%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%80%BA%E5%91%A8%E6%8A%A5%EF%BC%9A%E7%AD%89%E5%BE%85%E6%94%BF%E7%AD%96%E4%BF%A1%E5%8F%B7%E6%98%8E%E7%A1%AE20251207</link>
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<pubDate>Sun, 07 Dec 2025 12:25:26 GMT</pubDate>
<author>高翔</author>
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<category>周度报告</category>
<category>国债</category>
<category>国债</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>南华国债周报：降波蓄势</title>
<description><p>维持年内对债市的积极判断，配置盘来说建议直接忽略短期波动持仓观望。</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/nh/api/report/getReportFile?reportId=61208&filetitle=%E5%8D%97%E5%8D%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%80%BA%E5%91%A8%E6%8A%A5%EF%BC%9A%E9%99%8D%E6%B3%A2%E8%93%84%E5%8A%BF20251115</link>
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<pubDate>Sat, 15 Nov 2025 05:09:30 GMT</pubDate>
<author>高翔</author>
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<category>周度报告</category>
<category>国债</category>
<category>国债</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>南华国债周报：回调后性价比显现，关注配置机会20251109</title>
<description><p>本周国债期货高位震荡之后，后半周有所回调。我们认为市场在消化了国债买卖的增量利空后缺乏进一步上行的推动，以及权益资产的超强韧性是主要原因。但中期来看，四季度债市没有明显的利空，我们对趋势行情抱有较为乐观的期待：基本面数据进一步走低以及全球避险情绪的走高会再一次点燃市场对货币政策的期待，而年末配置行情蓄势待发意味着机构行为端的支持。目前国债期货价格已经调整至央行恢复国债买卖后调控高开的缺口上方附近，性价比也已回归。</p></description>
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<pubDate>Sun, 09 Nov 2025 04:18:11 GMT</pubDate>
<author>高翔</author>
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<category>周度报告</category>
<category>国债</category>
<category>国债</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>南华国债周报：同时迎接压力与买点20251026</title>
<description><p>下周债市可能继续承压，但这同时也意味着我们将迎来四季度的配置机会。</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/nh/api/report/getReportFile?reportId=60873&filetitle=%E5%8D%97%E5%8D%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%80%BA%E5%91%A8%E6%8A%A5%EF%BC%9A%E5%90%8C%E6%97%B6%E8%BF%8E%E6%8E%A5%E5%8E%8B%E5%8A%9B%E4%B8%8E%E4%B9%B0%E7%82%B920251026</link>
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<pubDate>Sun, 26 Oct 2025 17:31:02 GMT</pubDate>
<author>高翔</author>
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<category>周度报告</category>
<category>国债</category>
<category>国债</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>国债：全球共振避险，关注结构机会与修复行情</title>
<description><p>本周在避险情绪的驱动下，债市有所修复。从前一周周末突然升级的中美关税冲突、海外风险事件以及国内风险资产的调整——在内外事件共振且共同指向避险情绪升温的情况下，本周国债期货有所上涨。从盘中走势来看，债市跟A股日内的负相关性再度走高，即“跷跷板效应”重新变得明显。全球避险黄金新高、债市30-10利差压缩、A股“高低切”，各类资产共同演绎升温的避险情绪，这似乎并不是巧合，这会给债市带来什么样的机会？</p><p>需要指明的是，我们认为当前不是追高的机会，债市真正的趋势修复行情可能还没到来——意外事件点燃避险情绪延续性仍有待观察，这就注定其难以成为最坚实的行情逻辑，未来需要关注的是政策端带来的确定性机会。</p></description>
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<pubDate>Sun, 19 Oct 2025 09:19:04 GMT</pubDate>
<author>高翔</author>
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<category>周度报告</category>
<category>国债</category>
<category>国债</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>南华国债周报：空头的支撑在溃散20251011</title>
<description><p>由于9月底为季报发布周，本周报告我们对9月下旬以来债市走势进行整体回顾。恰逢中美关税冲突再度“升级”，我们对“事件为何爆发？”、“双方关系是否再度转向恶化？”以及“后续会谈以及国内市场表现”等问题也进行讨论，一并收录在本期周报中。</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/nh/api/report/getReportFile?reportId=60566&filetitle=%E5%8D%97%E5%8D%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%80%BA%E5%91%A8%E6%8A%A5%EF%BC%9A%E7%A9%BA%E5%A4%B4%E7%9A%84%E6%94%AF%E6%92%91%E5%9C%A8%E6%BA%83%E6%95%A320251011</link>
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<pubDate>Sat, 11 Oct 2025 09:28:36 GMT</pubDate>
<author>高翔</author>
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<category>周度报告</category>
<category>国债</category>
<category>国债</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>南华国债周报：是修复而非反转20250914</title>
<description><p>周度观点：在后半周的连续上涨加上周五盘后利率下行后，我们认为趋势依然不能算是乐观转向。当前股债已经基本脱敏，债市目前最大的问题在于缺乏自身的做多逻辑。而仅仅依靠货币政策预期（买卖国债炒作）可能动能不足。</p><p>总结来说，第一，本周的利空主要来自监管政策，并且其中一部分是小作文并未被证实，因此市场在总体偏弱的情况下有些超跌，后半周的上涨更多是修复性质的。第二，事前投资者颇为关注本周宏观面的表现，不论是周中发布的通胀数据还是周五的金融数据，都呈现出继续局部改善但宏观环境未见转折的特征，不造成更多的利空。第三，本周“拯救”多头的依旧是货币政策预期和流动性，这表明当前的货币政策依旧是支持性的，但由于个人认为短期内重启买债的概率不大（即便重启也不会有去年底那般巨大影响），当前还不能说已经趋势转多。</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/nh/api/report/getReportFile?reportId=60185&filetitle=%E5%8D%97%E5%8D%8E%E5%9B%BD%E5%80%BA%E5%91%A8%E6%8A%A5%EF%BC%9A%E6%98%AF%E4%BF%AE%E5%A4%8D%E8%80%8C%E9%9D%9E%E5%8F%8D%E8%BD%AC20250914</link>
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<pubDate>Sun, 14 Sep 2025 13:10:36 GMT</pubDate>
<author>高翔</author>
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<category>周度报告</category>
<category>国债</category>
<category>国债</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>南华国债周报：脱离“跷跷板”，回归单资产视角20250907</title>
<description><p>周度观点：债市依然延续情绪层面平稳改善+震荡行情的特征，但当下依旧建议用波段思路来操作，即以交易模式为主，快速上涨后果断、快速兑现浮盈，而非FOMO交易。对于行情的认知既要摒弃去年底以来的“每调买机”固有印象，也不需要像8月中下旬一样悲观。</p><p>关注区间：对标250011（10Y活跃券）1.745%—1.785%附近，T2512合约107.9—108.3附近的震荡区间做波段。Tips：日度级别的交易要在更窄的区间来做，快进快出。</p><p>本周关注：</p><p>1）周五美国非农坐实9月降息, A股可能进一步受到支撑</p><p>2）央行、财政部联合工作组第二次会议和周五一级发行情况偏弱。</p><p>3）流动性持续充裕，3M期买断式1万亿等量续作没有净投放。</p></description>
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<pubDate>Sun, 07 Sep 2025 01:53:16 GMT</pubDate>
<author>高翔</author>
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<title>南华国债周报：下跌背后的风偏脱敏20250824</title>
<description><p>跟周涨跌反映的结果恰恰相反，本周债市其实是止跌震荡整理的姿态。仔细看到债市周度走势，不难发现绝大部分的跌幅集中在周一，以10年期活跃券250011为例，周一全天利率大幅上行约4bp来到1.785%高位，而后几经震荡最终周五收在同一点位。而周一的大跌其实是对前一周货币政策执行报告中删去“择机购买国债”等偏空影响的滞后反映，因此本周债市实际表现为震荡。再结合本周股市的强势行情，不难得出结论：债市正在对A股表现逐渐脱敏，若后续情绪得到进一步释放，则有望回归独立行情。另外，对于仓位较轻的投资者，建议关注T主力合约的超跌反弹行情。</p></description>
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<pubDate>Sun, 24 Aug 2025 11:07:05 GMT</pubDate>
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<description><p>本周国内宏观数据陆续发布，公布情况不佳。同时需求端政策继续落地，经营贷、消费贷贴息政策进一步落实六月底《关于金融支持提振和扩大消费的指导意见》。海外方面，在数据波动之下FED降息预期摇摆，另外8月15日开始美俄元首会晤据说进展良好，但未能达成实际协议，后续地缘进展值得关注。</p></description>
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<pubDate>Sun, 17 Aug 2025 12:26:59 GMT</pubDate>
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<title>硅铁&硅锰：震荡偏弱，关注下方成本支撑</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日硅铁主力收盘价5684，环比-1.42%，持仓量19.57万手，环比+15.62%，仓单10512手，环比-2.16%；今日硅锰主力收盘价6122，环比-1.73%，持仓量27.19万手，环比-6.33%，仓单55573手，环比+2.21%
</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>港口锰矿报价有所下调，焦煤价格近期下跌较多和港口锰矿价格下跌，硅锰和硅铁的上涨动力减弱，铁合金基本面看，供应端上周硅铁产量环比-1.17%，硅锰产量环比-6.64%，近期锰业协会会议召开，锰系合金行业产能严重过剩且逆势扩张，进口锰矿价格飙升，合金产品价格持续低位，企业普遍持续亏损，号召节能减排30%，修复市场生态，尽管近期铁合金利润边际恢复并没有看到硅锰企业产量的回升，反而产量继续下降；硅铁产量相比之前有所恢复，主要原因硅铁除了炼钢需求还有非炼钢需求（镁锭）的支撑，镁锭产量1-2月累计产量20.83万吨，累计同比+38.92% ，而硅锰下游相对单一，供应端仍维持减产的情况下铁合金下方存在支撑。需求端，目前钢材盈利率继续回升，钢厂盈利率为48.05%，环比提升4.76个百分点，连续三周回升，接近半数企业盈利，显示行业盈利面持续扩大，以及金三银四旺季的季节性规律，铁水预计呈现回升的趋势，铁水铁合金需求存在一定支撑。库存端，硅铁库存中性累库，企业库存6.16万吨，环比+12.10%；硅锰库存37.18万吨，环比-0.26%，库存同期仍处于近5年历史同期最高水平，去库压力相对较大，好在硅锰维持低产策略和需求端的缓慢回升，硅锰库存可能缓慢去库 。</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>观望</p></description>
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<pubDate>Thu, 09 Apr 2026 09:08:03 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
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<title>螺纹&热卷：震荡偏弱，关注下方支撑</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日螺纹主力收盘价3096，环比-0.58%，持仓量132.47万手，环比+8.47%，仓单101090手，环比+0.27%；今日热卷主力收盘价3270，环比-0.37%，持仓量99.76万手，环比+3.14%，仓单556337手，环比+0.11%；
</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>现货成交一般，炉料端价格的走弱，焦煤端交割压力相对较大，供应过剩预期强化；铁矿端受到谈判预期的影响。但目前钢材盈利率继续回升，钢厂盈利率为48.05%，环比提升4.76个百分点，连续三周回升，接近半数企业盈利，显示行业盈利面持续扩大，以及金三银四旺季的季节性规律，铁水预计呈现回升的趋势，铁水需求端是存在对炉料端的支撑，铁矿下方存在支撑。但板材的高库存以及高仓单尤其是对热卷价格上方形成压力，如果在05合约交割前大量仓单仍没有注销，钢材仍会形成压力。 </p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>观望</p></description>
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<pubDate>Thu, 09 Apr 2026 09:07:59 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>螺纹钢</category>
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<item>
<title>焦煤：向下寻找支撑</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>焦煤05合约大跌，创下近期新低，5日均线处有压力。</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>煤市呈现“产地暖、港口僵”的分化格局，鄂尔多斯成了涨价“领头羊”：电煤长协履约踩油门，市场煤招标量猛增，个别贸易商忙着囤煤，站台发运量飙到“正常偏高”档；煤矿库存加速消化，尤其是沫煤成了“香饽饽”，超10%的样本矿跟风涨价，降价矿彻底消失，坑口行情暖得明显。</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>焦煤供给端，国内煤矿复产，蒙煤进口维持高位，形成供给压力。需求端，铁水产量强于季节性，钢材需求有韧性，支撑焦炭首轮提涨落地。但钢厂对继续提涨抵触较强。库存方面，口岸库存偏高，但海煤进口窗口关闭。当前盘面价格已较充分反映交割及供给压力，前期高估值溢价回落。操作上，考虑空单逢低止盈，并可关注低位做多机会。</p></description>
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<pubDate>Thu, 09 Apr 2026 07:20:34 GMT</pubDate>
<author>周甫翰</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
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<item>
<title>硅铁&硅锰：震荡走弱，关注下方支撑</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日硅铁主力收盘价5766，环比-1.7%，持仓量16.93万手，环比+16.08%，仓单10744手，环比+7.31%；今日硅锰主力收盘价6230，环比-2.53%，持仓量29.03万手，环比-10.31%，仓单54369手，环比+0.29%
</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>港口锰矿报价有所下调，锰矿天津港澳矿-1元/吨度，加蓬-0.2元/吨度，南非半碳酸矿-0.3元/吨度，焦煤价格近期下跌较多和港口锰矿价格下跌，硅锰和硅铁的上涨动力减弱</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>铁合金上涨动能减弱，短期回调后关注下方支撑</p></description>
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<pubDate>Wed, 08 Apr 2026 08:46:42 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>硅铁</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>螺纹&热卷：震荡偏弱，关注下方支撑</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日螺纹主力收盘价3114，环比-0.03%，持仓量122.13万手，环比+9.74%，仓单100813手，环比+1.2%；今日热卷主力收盘价3282，环比+0.21%，持仓量96.72万手，环比+4.47%，仓单555751手，环比-0.16%；
</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>现货成交一般，炉料端价格的走弱，焦煤端交割压力相对较大，供应过剩预期强化；铁矿端受到谈判预期的影响。但目前钢材盈利率继续回升，钢厂盈利率为48.05%，环比提升4.76个百分点，连续三周回升，接近半数企业盈利，显示行业盈利面持续扩大，以及金三银四旺季的季节性规律，铁水预计呈现回升的趋势，铁水需求端是存在对炉料端的支撑，铁矿下方存在支撑。但板材的高库存以及高仓单尤其是对热卷价格上方形成压力，如果在05合约交割前大量仓单仍没有注销，对钢材仍会形成压力。</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>观望</p></description>
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<pubDate>Wed, 08 Apr 2026 08:46:37 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
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<category>黑色</category>
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<title>油料：反套延续</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>原油下跌带动油脂下跌，内外盘回落</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>对于国内豆粕，现货方面，盘面情绪回落，今日豆粕总体成交转淡，现货采购走弱。全国来看，整体油厂大豆库存回落，国内油厂压榨回升，但后续存在季节性检修计划，豆粕库存回落。下游库存备货后，成交情绪回落。菜粕端来看，菜籽买船利润高位，供应存在回归预期。</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>种植面积超预期调减，生柴与出口需求支撑，库存进一步锁紧预期下外盘偏强。内盘来看，短期M05近月跟随现货情绪走弱，中期M07巴西宽松供应逻辑未变，远月M09重心转向美豆种植。菜系在豆菜粕价差拉大后重回性价比，豆菜粕价差修复，月差间反套回归。
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<pubDate>Thu, 02 Apr 2026 08:42:34 GMT</pubDate>
<author>靳晚冬</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
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<item>
<title>硅铁&硅锰：港口锰矿价格下调</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日硅铁主力收盘价5822，环比-0.89%，持仓量15.17万手，环比-4.55%，仓单10113手，环比-1.12%；
今日硅锰主力收盘价6380，环比-0.99%，持仓量33.1万手，环比-6.4%，仓单54238手，环比+0%</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>港口锰矿价格下调，天津澳矿环比-1美元/吨度，加蓬-0.3美元/吨度，南非半碳酸矿-0.5美元/吨度，原油能化板块和焦煤价格的大幅下跌，带动铁合金的成本下移</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>逢高做缩双硅价差</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=08bb42a242d535b301a9e371140822a4</link>
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<pubDate>Wed, 01 Apr 2026 09:04:42 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>硅铁</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>螺纹&热卷：供需双弱限制上涨空间，震荡走弱</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日螺纹主力收盘价3120，环比-0.03%，持仓量87.02万手，环比-3.43%，仓单99613手，环比+0%；
今日热卷主力收盘价3287，环比-0.21%，持仓量72.49万手，环比-6.23%，仓单549618手，环比+0%；</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>现货成交整体一般，原油能化板块价格大幅下跌带动大宗商品走弱，近期焦煤价格大幅下跌成材的成本支撑减弱，板材的高库存以及高仓单尤其是对热卷价格上方形成压力，如果后续去库不及预期钢材价格可能回落，钢材自身的供需双弱限制上涨空间。供应端铁水产量本周回复回升，环比+1.28%，热卷产量环比+1.79%，螺纹产量环比-2.68%。目前钢厂盈利率在 40%左右，铁水产量大幅增加的可能性不大，但还不至于开始减产，铁水产量预计缓慢爬升。需求端，房地产的主要政策还是稳房价，控增量和去库存，新开工面积的持续走弱对螺纹钢的需求难以有超预期的改善，专项债与超长期国债和去年持平，基建更多起到托底的作用。近期钢材港口出港量回落，钢材出口接单下滑，油价上涨可能助推通胀海外降息预期时间延迟，以及近期人民价格的升值，热卷出口利润下滑，钢材出口面临压力。钢材需求的走弱，定价逻辑可能更多的在于炉料端，钢厂利润可能继续回落。</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>逢高做缩卷螺价差</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=bf35568942211be6382dd8f9c7fb2b25</link>
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<pubDate>Wed, 01 Apr 2026 09:04:37 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>螺纹钢</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>焦煤：短期跌速过快</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>焦煤午后价格闪崩，主要跟随原油走势，随着战争缓和的可能性增加，能源溢价去除。日线六连阴。</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>焦煤跟随能源预期继续下跌，目前价格已经接近战前水平，能源溢价已经抹去。期货下跌后，焦煤基差快速修复。需要关注降价后，对现货需求的拉动和对库存的去化。后续需要关注甘其毛都口岸的库存情况。本期铁水产量预计继续回升，对煤焦下方需求有补库支撑。</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>预计下方空间并不悲观，短期跌速过快有反弹的可能，空单考虑适时止盈。</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=eb2b32ca42155c30f99f19a77c1c807c</link>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=eb2b32ca42155c30f99f19a77c1c807c</guid>
<pubDate>Wed, 01 Apr 2026 07:46:13 GMT</pubDate>
<author>周甫翰</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>焦煤</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>硅铁&硅锰：压力位回落</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日硅铁主力收盘价5874，环比-3.17%，持仓量15.89万手，环比-7.38%，仓单10228手，环比-0.15%；今日硅锰主力收盘价6444，环比-2.19%，持仓量35.36万手，环比-3.62%，仓单54238手，环比-1.44%
</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>今日受到宏观情绪影响，市场传可能结束战争，大宗商品高位大幅下跌，带动前期上涨较多的品种回落，铁合金今日下跌，但锰矿港口价格依旧坚挺，硅锰下方仍存在成本支撑。</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>观望</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=f685c1f265b8db0863875a6b6711b9e4</link>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=f685c1f265b8db0863875a6b6711b9e4</guid>
<pubDate>Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:15:36 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>硅铁</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>螺纹&热卷：移仓换月中</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日螺纹主力收盘价3121，环比-0.57%，持仓量90.11万手，环比-7.72%，仓单99613手，环比+0%；今日热卷主力收盘价3294，环比-0.42%，持仓量77.31万手，环比-8.71%，仓单549618手，环比+0%；
</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>今日钢材现货整体成交一般偏弱，低价刚需拿货为主，今日受到宏观情绪影响，炉料端铁矿、焦煤价格回落，对钢材成本支撑减弱，板材的高库存以及高仓单尤其是对热卷价格上方形成压力，如果后续去库不及预期钢材价格可能回落，钢材自身的供需双弱限制上涨空间。2026年1-2月份，国内钢铁行业利润累计值为-24.7亿元，同比增幅-59.35%，钢厂利润不佳，刚才难以涨价</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>逢高做缩卷螺差</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=9c1779754e715bc64fd1eacbe1fb9599</link>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=9c1779754e715bc64fd1eacbe1fb9599</guid>
<pubDate>Tue, 31 Mar 2026 09:15:35 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>螺纹钢</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>硅铁&硅锰：成本支撑上移，震荡偏强</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日硅铁主力收盘价6066，环比+0.9%，持仓量17.16万手，环比+2.72%，仓单10243手，环比+0.52%；今日硅锰主力收盘价6588，环比+0.12%，持仓量36.69万手，环比-3.76%，仓单55028手，环比-0.11%
</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>铁合金的主要逻辑并没有改变，成本端锰矿和能源的双轮驱动，港口锰矿报价继续坚挺上调，锰矿天津港澳矿+2.5元/吨度，加蓬+1.5元/吨度，南非半碳酸矿+2.8元/吨度；上周内蒙化工焦报价上涨50元/吨，陕西兰炭报价上涨65元/吨，进一步推高成本。近期市场传言澳大利亚燃油紧张，燃油供给需要更长的周期和更长的航线运费，迫使铁矿石开采商减少商业活动，如果消息属实也可能传递到澳洲的锰矿开采。铁合金基本面看，供应端上周硅铁产量环比-2.20%，硅锰产量环比-2.31%，近期锰业协会会议召开，锰系合金行业产能严重过剩且逆势扩张，进口锰矿价格飙升，合金产品价格持续低位，企业普遍持续亏损，号召节能减排30%，修复市场生态，尽管近期铁合金利润边际恢复并没有看到硅锰企业产量的回升，反而产量继续下降；硅铁产量相比之前有所恢复，主要原因硅铁除了炼钢需求还有非炼钢需求（镁锭）的支撑，镁锭产量1-2月累计产量20.83万吨，累计同比+38.92% ，而硅锰下游相对单一。需求端，目前钢厂盈利率大概40%，大幅增产的可能性不大，虽然目前高炉利润在累库趋势下和炉料端的上涨有所回落，铁水还不至于马上开始减产，对铁合金需求存在一定支撑，但支撑作用或有限在粗钢调控的背景下。库存端，硅铁库存中性去库，企业库存5.49万吨，环比-7.49%；硅锰库存37.28万吨，环比-3.11%，库存同期仍处于近5年历史同期最高水平，去库压力相对较大，好在硅锰维持低产策略和需求端的缓慢回升，硅锰库存可能缓慢去库 。锰矿价格矿商挺价，价格坚挺，在地缘局势尚未明朗的情况下，战争还没结束，铁合金成本支撑逻辑仍存，硅锰除了能源成本还有锰矿的成本抬升，会比硅铁多一个成本支撑逻辑，可能偏强于硅铁。</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>观望</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=a076757bdbd32b5022fd5a8926fed09a</link>
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<pubDate>Mon, 30 Mar 2026 23:40:33 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>硅铁</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>螺纹&热卷：成本支撑，供需双弱限制上涨空间</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日螺纹主力收盘价3139，环比+0.48%，持仓量97.64万手，环比-9.27%，仓单99613手，环比+0%；今日热卷主力收盘价3308，环比+0.27%，持仓量84.68万手，环比-7.91%，仓单549618手，环比+1.19%；
</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>现货成交整体一般，低价成交较好，投机和终端都有拿货，基差维稳定，材价格维持震荡，主要逻辑还是在于在于炉料端的成本抬升推动并没有改变。伊朗地缘政治冲突强化了煤炭的能源属性，油价带动了焦煤价格的上涨，伊朗地缘政治短期内如果不能解决对焦煤存在价格支撑。铁矿限矿流通货库存相对偏紧，下游又面临节后补库的需求，以及中东局势助推海运费价格的上涨，对铁矿价格形成支撑。短期看，炉料端焦煤、铁矿价格价格的上涨，对钢材价格形成成本支撑，但板材的高库存以及高仓单尤其是对热卷价格上方形成压力，如果后续去库不及预期钢材价格可能回落，钢材自身的供需双弱限制上涨空间。供应端铁水产量本周回复回升，环比+1.28%，热卷产量环比+1.79%，螺纹产量环比-2.68%。目前钢厂盈利率在40%左右，铁水产量大幅增加的可能性不大，但还不至于开始减产，铁水产量预计缓慢爬升，炉料端成本的上涨，高炉利润边际走弱，若利润继续走弱对后续供应端产量有一定的压力。</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>观望</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=e7adbf5eee2b1ade300bacfd5dcdeda6</link>
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<pubDate>Mon, 30 Mar 2026 23:40:30 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>螺纹钢</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>硅铁&硅锰：成本支撑，价格重心上移</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日硅铁主力收盘价6012，环比+0.5%，持仓量16.7万手，环比-2.73%；今日硅锰主力收盘价6580，环比+2.27%，持仓量38.11万手，环比+0.15%
</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>目前铁合金上涨的逻辑在于成本支撑和短期的供需错配，海外锰矿报价上调、澳洲飓风扰动发运，叠加海运费上行，港口锰矿价格坚挺走高；前期铁合金利润亏损，供应端维持低位，而节后铁水面临复工复产，造成短期供需错配</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>逢高做缩双硅价差</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=3875cf00cb4c7ea432538354856d66e7</link>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=3875cf00cb4c7ea432538354856d66e7</guid>
<pubDate>Fri, 27 Mar 2026 09:00:30 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>硅铁</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>螺纹&热卷：成本支撑</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日螺纹主力收盘价3124，环比-0.13%，持仓量107.62万手，环比-7.8%，仓单99613手，环比+1.55%；今日热卷主力收盘价3299，环比-0.18%，持仓量91.95万手，环比-4.44%，仓单543161手，环比+1.09%；</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>钢材现货成交整体一般偏弱，盘面连续下跌，投机情绪转弱；炉料端焦煤、铁矿价格价格的上涨，对钢材价格形成成本支撑，但板材的高库存以及高仓单尤其是对热卷价格上方形成压力，如果后续去库不及预期钢材价格可能回落。本周钢材库存开始去库，库存压力边际缓解。 目前钢厂盈利率在 40%左右，铁水产量大幅增加的可能性不大，但还不至于开始减产，铁水产量预计缓慢爬升，炉料端成本的上涨，高炉利润边际走弱，若利润继续走弱对后续供应端产量有一定的压力，钢材定价逻辑可能更多的在于炉料端</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>观望</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=58d3f6334e9bdc9242b881ce2ffc1682</link>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=58d3f6334e9bdc9242b881ce2ffc1682</guid>
<pubDate>Fri, 27 Mar 2026 09:00:27 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>螺纹钢</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>油料：资金逐渐换月</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>中美谈判预期延续，外盘跟随反弹，内盘资金换月。</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>对于国内豆粕，现货方面，盘面情绪回落，现货采购走弱。全国来看，整体油厂大豆库存回落，国内油厂压榨回升，但后续存在季节性检修计划，豆粕库存回落。下游库存备货后，成交情绪回落。
菜粕端来看，菜籽买船利润高位，供应存在回归预期。华南地区逐渐接近水产备货季节,今年水产投苗较早，有望提前启动需求；另外豆菜粕价差拉大后菜粕重回性价比。</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>4月中美谈判延后，外盘关注生柴政策会议以及月末种植面积。内盘来看，短期受产地巴西发运或逐渐恢复进度，但加油受阻与运费上涨影响现货挺价。中期看整体大供应逻辑未变。菜系在豆菜粕价差拉大后重回性价比，豆菜粕价差修复。月差间反套持有。</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=817fccd834f01fb5e1770c8679c0824e</link>
<guid isPermaLink="false">https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=817fccd834f01fb5e1770c8679c0824e</guid>
<pubDate>Fri, 27 Mar 2026 09:00:23 GMT</pubDate>
<author>靳晚冬</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>焦煤</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>硅铁&硅锰：成本支撑</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日硅铁主力收盘价6088，环比-0.2%，持仓量17.48万手，环比-1.82%，仓单10352手，环比+1.47%；今日硅锰主力收盘价6492，环比+0.19%，持仓量39.24万手，环比-3.49%，仓单55440手，环比+2.03%；
</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>目前铁合金上涨的逻辑在于成本支撑和短期的供需错配，海外锰矿报价上调、加蓬出口生态税扰动、澳洲飓风扰动发运，叠加海运费上行，港口锰矿价格坚挺走高；前期铁合金利润亏损，供应端维持低位，而节后铁水面临复工复产，造成短期供需错配</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>观望</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=b32c15c320e33b884b66800f01d8d8dd</link>
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<pubDate>Thu, 26 Mar 2026 08:41:39 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>硅铁</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>螺纹&热卷：螺纹仓单继续增加</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日螺纹主力收盘价3128，环比-0.13%，持仓量116.72万手，环比-3.32%，仓单98088手，环比+6.27%；
今日热卷主力收盘价3305，环比-0.24%，持仓量96.23万手，环比-4.07%，仓单537279手，环比+1.67%；
</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>今日钢材现货成交整体一般偏弱，环比昨日略有好转，低价成交尚可，刚需低价拿货，整体基差微扩，目前钢材的主要逻辑还是在于成本驱动逻辑，今日市场传言仍不同意核心诉求使用人民币结算，并准备减产，下调发运目标，铁矿价格小幅反弹，但成材仍偏弱。</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>观望</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=51e9d6dcb1f96cc3d5fe2af893ce7790</link>
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<pubDate>Thu, 26 Mar 2026 08:41:38 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>螺纹钢</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>油料：资金逐渐换月</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>美豆油走强，外盘由于中美谈判预期反弹，内盘小幅反弹。</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>对于国内豆粕，现货方面，盘面情绪回落，现货采购走弱。全国来看，整体油厂大豆库存回落，国内油厂压榨回升，但后续存在季节性检修计划，豆粕库存回落。下游库存备货后，成交情绪回落。
菜粕端来看，菜籽买船利润高位，供应存在回归预期。华南地区逐渐接近水产备货季节,今年水产投苗较早，有望提前启动需求；另外豆菜粕价差拉大后菜粕重回性价比。
</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>4月中美谈判延后，外盘关注生柴政策会议以及月末种植面积。内盘来看，短期受产地巴西发运或逐渐恢复进度，但加油受阻与运费上涨影响现货挺价。中期看整体大供应逻辑未变。菜系在豆菜粕价差拉大后重回性价比，豆菜粕价差修复。月差间反套持有。
</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=5b791ec38289d58a42e5101a9327b9ac</link>
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<pubDate>Thu, 26 Mar 2026 08:40:53 GMT</pubDate>
<author>靳晚冬</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>焦煤</category>
</item>
<item>
<title>螺纹&热卷：成本支撑，但上涨空间有限</title>
<description><p><b>收盘行情回顾</b></p><p>今日螺纹主力收盘价3145，环比-0.29%，持仓量126.35万手，环比-6.5%，仓单80114手，环比+4.79%；今日热卷主力收盘价3324，环比-0.18%，持仓量102.43万手，环比-2.95%，仓单525512手，环比-0.06%；
</p><p><b>现货成交及行情解读</b></p><p>现货成交整体一般，环比昨日转弱，盘面微跌，基差微扩，投机和终端拿货情绪较上周好转。伊朗地缘政治冲突强化了煤炭的能源属性，油价带动了焦煤价格的上涨，伊朗地缘政治短期内如果不能解决对焦煤存在价格支撑。铁矿限矿流通货库存相对偏紧，下游又面临节后补库的需求，以及中东局势助推海运费价格的上涨，对铁矿价格形成支撑。短期看，炉料端焦煤、铁矿价格价格的上涨，对钢材价格形成成本支撑，但板材的高库存以及高仓单尤其是对热卷价格上方形成压力，如果后续去库不及预期钢材价格可能回落。</p><p><b>策略跟踪</b></p><p>观望</p></description>
<link>https://mall.nanhua.net/mall/r/w/reportNew/report-list-page.html?id=20086683a16f0f9ff5ee662afa9fbfbf</link>
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<pubDate>Tue, 24 Mar 2026 08:54:49 GMT</pubDate>
<author>陈敏涛</author>
<category>收市点评</category>
<category>黑色</category>
<category>螺纹钢</category>
</item>
</channel>
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