🗳️ Election Cycle — 2026-05-31

[github-actions]

Field	Value
Workflow	news-election-cycle
Article type	election-cycle
Article date	2026-05-31
Languages	14 / 14 (en, sv, da, no, fi, de, fr, es, nl, ar, he, ja, ko, zh) × 2 anchors
Analysis depth	comprehensive
Iteration mode	initial
Gate verdict	✅ PASS (both anchors — core + tier-c + long-horizon)
Cycle anchor	both (current retrospective + next forecast)

📋 Summary

Dual-anchor election-cycle product for the 2026-09-13 Riksdag election (T-105 days). current is a retrospective mandate scorecard of the Tidö government (M/KD/L + SD support, 2022–2026); next is a forward coalition-formation forecast for the post-2026 mandate, modelling a 12-leaf scenario tree (4 seat outcomes × 3 coalition branches) under Sainte-Laguë with L/MP threshold gating at 4%. Both anchors render full 14-language article sets.

📊 Stats

Metric	Value
Anchors	2 (current, next)
Analysis artifacts per anchor	42 aggregated
Unique dok_id citations	10 (HD01SfU35, HD024194, HD01JuU37, HD01JuU33, HD10526, HD10524, HD03130, HD01SoU32, HD01UbU25, HD01UU10)
Rendered HTML	28 (14 langs × 2 anchors)
Files staged	116 / 180

🧠 Analysis artifacts

Both current/ and next/ carry the full 23 always-on artifact families (A core synthesis, B structural metadata, C strategic extensions, D electoral/domain lenses) plus Family-E per-document documents/{dok_id}-analysis.md, comprehensive-tier supplements (analysis-index, reference-analysis-quality, mcp-reliability-audit, workflow-audit), pir-status.json, and long-horizon artifacts (cycle-trajectory, wildcards-blackswans, quantitative-swot, political-stride-assessment, devils-advocate ≥3 counterfactuals).

🌐 Localized articles

• news/2026-05-31-election-cycle-current-{en,sv,da,no,fi,de,fr,es,nl,ar,he,ja,ko,zh}.html
• news/2026-05-31-election-cycle-next-{en,sv,da,no,fi,de,fr,es,nl,ar,he,ja,ko,zh}.html
• analysis/daily/2026-05-31/election-cycle/current/article.md — "Tidö's Contract Government Heads Toward a Knife-Edge Verdict on Its Mandate"
• analysis/daily/2026-05-31/election-cycle/next/article.md — "Sweden's Next Government Is Already Being Built on a Knife-Edge of Arithmetic"

🔗 Top source citations

1. HD01SfU35 — Migration reception reform; load-bearing for the Tidö mandate scorecard and the next-mandate migration trajectory.
2. HD10526 — Municipal/regional equalisation; central to fiscal-balance arithmetic across both anchors.
3. HD03130 — AP-funds governance; long-horizon structural risk indicator.
4. HD01JuU33 — E-evidence / EU justice cooperation; EU-axis scenario branch input.
5. HD01UU10 — EU annual; anchors the external/EU horizon band.

🔍 Methodology & compliance

• Methodology: analysis/methodologies/ai-driven-analysis-guide.md
• Templates: analysis/templates/
• Evidence rule: every claim cites a dok_id, named actor, vote count, or primary-source URL.
• GDPR / ISMS: public-source data only; neutrality applied; DPIA not required.
• Economic data: IMF WEO Apr-2026 vintage (growth ~2.1% T+1, ~1.9% T+2, gross debt ~34% GDP); within 6-month vintage window.

🔁 Iteration

• Pass 1 analysis: ✅ complete (both anchors)
• Pass 2 improvement: ✅ complete (Mermaid + confidence labels + forecast reframing)
• Aggregate + render: ✅ validated (validate-article PASS) + 28 HTML rendered

⚠️ Caveats & limits

• next anchor intentionally retains predecessor-path citations to analysis/daily/2026-05-31/year-ahead/ (required for long-horizon cross-reference linkage LH-6); these are evidence-chain references, not stale framing.
• Pre-election multiplier (1.5×) active; cycle-rollover window inactive (election T-105d, outside ±30d).

▶️ Re-run

gh aw run news-election-cycle.md --ref main \
  -F article_date=2026-05-31 \
  -F analysis_depth=comprehensive

Generated by News: Election Cycle · opus48 16.9M · ◷

• expires on Jun 30, 2026, 2:50 PM UTC

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