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Polyseer - See the Future.

Everyone wishes they could go back and buy Bitcoin at $1. Polyseer brings the future to you, so you never have to wonder "what if?" again.

⚠️ NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE | Polyseer provides analysis for entertainment and research purposes only. Always DYOR.

Tldr;

git clone https://github.com/yorkeccak/polyseer.git
cd polyseer
npm install

# Create .env.local with:
# OPENAI_API_KEY=sk-... # Get from platform.openai.com
# VALYU_API_KEY=vl_...  # Get from platform.valyu.network

npm run dev

Open localhost:3000, paste any Polymarket or Kalshi URL, and get your analysis. No signup required in development mode.

Or, we have a hosted version here

What is Polyseer?

Prediction markets tell you what might happen. Polyseer tells you why.

Drop in any Polymarket or Kalshi URL and get a structured analysis that breaks down the actual factors driving an outcome. Instead of gut feelings or surface-level takes, you get systematic research across academic papers, news, market data, and expert analysis.

The system uses multiple AI agents to research both sides of a question, then aggregates the evidence using Bayesian probability math. Think of it as having a research team that can read thousands of sources in minutes and give you the key insights.

Core features:

  • Systematic research across academic, web, and market data sources
  • Evidence classification and quality scoring
  • Mathematical probability aggregation (not just vibes)
  • Both sides research to avoid confirmation bias
  • Real-time data, not stale information

Built for developers, researchers, and anyone who wants rigorous analysis instead of speculation.

🏗️ Architecture Overview

Polyseer is built on a multi-agent AI architecture that orchestrates specialized agents to conduct deep analysis. Here's how the magic happens:

graph TD
    A[User Input: Market URL] --> B[Platform Detector]
    B --> C{Polymarket or Kalshi?}
    C -->|Polymarket| D[Polymarket API Client]
    C -->|Kalshi| E[Kalshi API Client]
    D --> F[Unified Market Data]
    E --> F
    B --> C[Orchestrator]
    C --> D[Planner Agent]
    D --> E[Research Agents]
    E --> F[Valyu Search Network]
    F --> G[Evidence Collection]
    G --> H[Critic Agent]
    H --> I[Analyst Agent]
    I --> J[Reporter Agent]
    J --> K[Final Verdict]
    
    style A fill:#e1f5fe
    style K fill:#c8e6c9
    style F fill:#fff3e0
    style C fill:#f3e5f5
Loading

🧠 Agent System Deep Dive

sequenceDiagram
    participant User as 👤 User
    participant Orch as 🎭 Orchestrator
    participant Plan as 🗺️ Planner
    participant Res as 🔍 Researcher
    participant Valyu as 🌐 Valyu Network
    participant Critic as 🧪 Critic
    participant Analyst as 📊 Analyst
    participant Reporter as 📝 Reporter
    
    User->>Orch: Polymarket URL
    Orch->>Plan: Generate research strategy
    Plan->>Orch: Subclaims + search seeds
    
    par Research Cycle 1
        Orch->>Res: Research PRO evidence
        Res->>Valyu: Deep + Web searches
        Valyu-->>Res: Academic papers, news, data
        and
        Orch->>Res: Research CON evidence  
        Res->>Valyu: Targeted counter-searches
        Valyu-->>Res: Contradicting evidence
    end
    
    Orch->>Critic: Analyze evidence gaps
    Critic->>Orch: Follow-up search recommendations
    
    par Research Cycle 2 (if gaps found)
        Orch->>Res: Targeted follow-up searches
        Res->>Valyu: Fill identified gaps
        Valyu-->>Res: Missing evidence
    end
    
    Orch->>Analyst: Bayesian probability aggregation
    Analyst->>Orch: pNeutral, pAware, evidence weights
    
    Orch->>Reporter: Generate final report
    Reporter->>User: 📋 Analyst-grade verdict
Loading

🔬 Deep Research System

Valyu Integration

Polyseer leverages Valyu's search network to access:

  • 🎓 Academic Papers: Real-time research publications
  • 🌐 Web Intelligence: Fresh news and analysis
  • 📈 Market Data: Financial and trading information
  • 🏛️ Proprietary Datasets: Exclusive Valyu intelligence
graph LR
    A[Research Query] --> B[Valyu Deep Search]
    B --> C[Academic Sources]
    B --> D[Web Sources]
    B --> E[Market Data]
    B --> F[Proprietary Intel]
    
    C --> G[Evidence Classification]
    D --> G
    E --> G  
    F --> G
    
    G --> H[Type A: Primary Sources]
    G --> I[Type B: High-Quality Secondary]
    G --> J[Type C: Standard Secondary]
    G --> K[Type D: Weak/Speculative]
    
    style B fill:#fff3e0
    style H fill:#c8e6c9
    style I fill:#dcedc8
    style J fill:#f0f4c3
    style K fill:#ffcdd2
Loading

Evidence Quality System

Each piece of evidence is rigorously classified:

Type Description Cap Examples
A Primary Sources 2.0 Official documents, press releases, regulatory filings
B High-Quality Secondary 1.6 Reuters, Bloomberg, WSJ, expert analysis
C Standard Secondary 0.8 Reputable news with citations, industry publications
D Weak/Speculative 0.3 Social media, unverified claims, rumors

📊 Mathematical Foundation

Bayesian Probability Aggregation

Polyseer uses sophisticated mathematical models to combine evidence:

graph TD
    A[Prior Probability p0] --> B[Evidence Weights]
    B --> C[Log Likelihood Ratios]
    C --> D[Correlation Adjustments]
    D --> E[Cluster Analysis]
    E --> F[Final Probabilities]
    
    F --> G[pNeutral: Objective Assessment]
    F --> H[pAware: Market-Informed]
    
    style A fill:#e3f2fd
    style F fill:#c8e6c9
    style G fill:#dcedc8
    style H fill:#f0f4c3
Loading

Key Formulas:

  • Log Likelihood Ratio: LLR = log(P(evidence|YES) / P(evidence|NO))
  • Probability Update: p_new = p_old × exp(LLR)
  • Correlation Adjustment: Accounts for evidence clustering and dependencies

Evidence Influence Calculation

Each piece of evidence receives an influence score based on:

  • Verifiability: Can the claim be independently verified?
  • Consistency: Internal logical coherence
  • Independence: Number of independent corroborations
  • Recency: How fresh is the information?

🛠️ Technology Stack

Frontend

  • ⚡ Next.js 15.5 - React framework with Turbopack
  • 🎨 Tailwind CSS 4 - Utility-first styling
  • 🎭 Framer Motion - Smooth animations
  • 🌈 Radix UI - Accessible components
  • ⚛️ React 19 - Latest React features

Backend & APIs

  • 🤖 AI SDK - LLM orchestration
  • 🧠 GPT-5 - Advanced reasoning model
  • 🔍 Valyu JS SDK - Search network integration
  • 📊 Polymarket API - Market data fetching
  • 💾 Supabase - Database and authentication
  • 💳 Polar - Subscription and billing

State Management

  • 🐻 Zustand - Simple state management
  • 🔄 TanStack Query - Server state synchronization
  • 🍪 Supabase SSR - Server-side authentication

Infrastructure

  • 🔐 TypeScript - Type safety throughout
  • 🎯 Zod - Runtime type validation
  • 📝 ESLint - Code quality
  • 🏗️ Vercel - Deployment platform

🚀 Getting Started

Prerequisites

For Development Mode

  • Node.js 18+
  • npm/pnpm/yarn
  • Valyu API key - Get yours at platform.valyu.network
  • OpenAI API key - For GPT-5 access

Additional for Production Mode

  • Supabase account - Database and authentication
  • Polar account - Billing and subscriptions

1. Clone the Repository

git clone https://github.com/your-org/polyseer.git
cd polyseer

2. Install Dependencies

npm install
# or
pnpm install

3. Environment Setup

Create .env.local and configure the required variables for your mode:

🔐 Core API Keys (Required for Both Modes)

# OpenAI (GPT-4/5 access required)
OPENAI_API_KEY=sk-...

# Valyu Search Network
VALYU_API_KEY=vl_...

# Polymarket (optional, for enhanced data)
POLYMARKET_API_KEY=pm_...

🏛️ Database & Auth (Production Mode Only)

NEXT_PUBLIC_SUPABASE_URL=https://your-project.supabase.co
NEXT_PUBLIC_SUPABASE_ANON_KEY=eyJ...
SUPABASE_SERVICE_ROLE_KEY=eyJ...

# Email notifications (optional)
RESEND_API_KEY=re_...

💳 Billing & Subscriptions (Production Mode Only)

POLAR_ACCESS_TOKEN=polar_...
POLAR_SUBSCRIPTION_PRODUCT_ID=prod_...
POLAR_PAY_PER_USE_PRODUCT_ID=prod_...
POLAR_WEBHOOK_SECRET=whsec_...
NEXT_PUBLIC_APP_URL=http://localhost:3000

🧠 Memory System (Optional - Both Modes)

MEMORY_ENABLED=true
WEAVIATE_URL=https://your-weaviate.weaviate.network
WEAVIATE_API_KEY=wv_...

🌍 App Configuration

# Development mode (DEFAULT): No rate limits, no auth required, use your own API keys
# NEXT_PUBLIC_APP_MODE=development  # This is the default if not set
NODE_ENV=development

# Production mode: Full auth, rate limits, billing system  
# NEXT_PUBLIC_APP_MODE=production
# NODE_ENV=production

4. Database Setup (Production Mode Only)

If you're using production mode, set up your Supabase database with the following tables:

-- Users table with subscription info
CREATE TABLE users (
  id UUID PRIMARY KEY DEFAULT gen_random_uuid(),
  email TEXT UNIQUE NOT NULL,
  full_name TEXT,
  avatar_url TEXT,
  subscription_tier TEXT DEFAULT 'free',
  subscription_status TEXT DEFAULT 'inactive',
  analyses_remaining INTEGER DEFAULT 0,
  total_analyses_run INTEGER DEFAULT 0,
  polar_customer_id TEXT,
  created_at TIMESTAMP WITH TIME ZONE DEFAULT NOW(),
  updated_at TIMESTAMP WITH TIME ZONE DEFAULT NOW()
);

-- Analysis sessions
CREATE TABLE analysis_sessions (
  id UUID PRIMARY KEY DEFAULT gen_random_uuid(),
  user_id UUID REFERENCES users(id),
  polymarket_slug TEXT NOT NULL,
  market_question TEXT,
  status TEXT DEFAULT 'pending',
  started_at TIMESTAMP WITH TIME ZONE DEFAULT NOW(),
  completed_at TIMESTAMP WITH TIME ZONE,
  duration_seconds INTEGER,
  valyu_cost DECIMAL(10,6),
  analysis_steps JSONB,
  forecast_card JSONB,
  markdown_report TEXT,
  current_step TEXT,
  progress_events JSONB,
  p0 DECIMAL(5,4),
  p_neutral DECIMAL(5,4),
  p_aware DECIMAL(5,4),
  drivers TEXT[],
  error_message TEXT,
  created_at TIMESTAMP WITH TIME ZONE DEFAULT NOW(),
  updated_at TIMESTAMP WITH TIME ZONE DEFAULT NOW()
);

5. Choose Your Mode

Polyseer supports two deployment modes:

🔧 Development Mode (Default)

Perfect for developers, researchers, and personal use:

# Set in .env.local
NEXT_PUBLIC_APP_MODE=development

# Then run
npm run dev

Features:

  • ✅ No rate limits - Unlimited usage
  • ✅ No authentication required - Jump straight to analysis
  • ✅ Use your own API keys - Direct control over costs
  • ✅ No signup/billing system - No barriers to entry
  • 🎯 Perfect for: Personal research, development, API key holders

🌍 Production Mode

For hosting a public service with monetization:

# Set in .env.local  
NEXT_PUBLIC_APP_MODE=production

# Ensure all Supabase/Polar variables are configured
# Then run
npm run dev

Features:

  • 🔐 Full authentication system - Secure user management
  • 💳 Billing integration - Polar-powered subscriptions
  • 📊 Usage tracking - Rate limits and analytics
  • 🚦 Tiered access - Free, pay-per-use, unlimited plans
  • 🎯 Perfect for: SaaS deployment, public hosting, monetization

6. Start Analyzing

Open http://localhost:3000 and paste any Polymarket URL to get started!

Development Mode: No signup needed - go straight to analysis Production Mode: Users can sign up or get limited anonymous usage

📊 Agent System Details

🗺️ Planner Agent

Purpose: Break down complex questions into research pathways Input: Market question Output: Subclaims, search seeds, key variables, decision criteria

interface Plan {
  subclaims: string[];      // Causal pathways to outcome
  keyVariables: string[];   // Leading indicators to monitor
  searchSeeds: string[];    // Targeted search queries
  decisionCriteria: string[]; // Evidence evaluation criteria
}

🔍 Researcher Agent

Purpose: Gather evidence from multiple sources Tools: Valyu Deep Search, Valyu Web Search Process:

  1. Initial bilateral research (PRO/CON)
  2. Evidence classification (A/B/C/D)
  3. Follow-up targeted searches

🧪 Critic Agent

Purpose: Identify gaps and provide quality feedback Analysis:

  • Missing evidence areas
  • Duplication detection
  • Data quality concerns
  • Correlation adjustments
  • Follow-up search recommendations

📊 Analyst Agent

Purpose: Mathematical probability aggregation Methods:

  • Bayesian updating
  • Evidence clustering
  • Correlation adjustments
  • Log-likelihood calculations

📝 Reporter Agent

Purpose: Generate human-readable analysis Output: Markdown report with:

  • Executive summary
  • Evidence synthesis
  • Risk factors
  • Confidence assessment

🔒 Security & Privacy

Data Protection

  • 🔐 End-to-end encryption for sensitive data
  • 🍪 Secure session management via Supabase
  • 🛡️ Input sanitization for all user data
  • 🚫 No personal data stored in search queries

API Security

  • 🔑 Rate limiting on all endpoints
  • 🛡️ CORS policies for secure cross-origin requests
  • 🔍 Request validation using Zod schemas
  • 📋 Audit logging for all API calls

🤝 Contributing

We welcome contributions! Here's how to get started:

Development Workflow

  1. Fork the repository
  2. Create a feature branch: git checkout -b feature/amazing-feature
  3. Make your changes
  4. Add tests: npm run test
  5. Submit a pull request

Code Style

  • TypeScript: Strict mode enabled
  • ESLint: Follow the configuration
  • Prettier: Auto-formatting on save
  • Conventional Commits: Use semantic commit messages

📈 Performance & Scalability

Optimization Strategies

  • ⚡ Turbopack: Fast development builds
  • 🚀 Edge runtime: Serverless function optimization
  • 📦 Code splitting: Minimal bundle sizes
  • 🎯 Smart caching: Redis for repeated queries

Monitoring

  • 📊 Real-time metrics via Polar
  • 🐛 Error tracking with detailed logging
  • ⏱️ Performance monitoring for all agents
  • 💰 Cost tracking for API usage

⚖️ Legal & Disclaimers

Important Notice

⚠️ NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE: Polyseer provides analysis for entertainment and research purposes only. All predictions are probabilistic and should not be used as the sole basis for financial decisions.

Terms of Service

  • 🔒 Privacy Policy: We respect your privacy
  • 📋 Terms of Use: Fair use and guidelines
  • ⚖️ Liability: Limited liability for predictions
  • 🌍 Jurisdiction: Governed by applicable laws

📄 License

This project is licensed under the MIT License - see the LICENSE file for details.

🙏 Acknowledgments

Powered By

  • 🌐 Valyu Network: Real-time search api
  • 🧠 OpenAI GPT-5: Advanced reasoning capabilities
  • 📊 Polymarket: Prediction market data
  • 💾 Supabase: Backend infrastructure
  • 💳 Polar: Billing and subscriptions

Ready to see the future? Start analyzing markets at polyseer.xyz 🔮

Remember: The future belongs to those who can see it coming. Don't miss out again.

Polyseer

See the Future. Don't Miss Out.

Deploy with Vercel

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Polymarket alpha at the speed of now.

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