Wire up peace-fwcp.Rmd citations from 3-split lit reviews

planning/active/citation_audit.md

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+# Citation Audit — peace-fwcp.Rmd wire-up (#67)
+
+Same format as #65/kootenay audit. One row per `[@key]` insertion
+in `peace-fwcp.Rmd`. Per-AOI nuances vs #65 noted in each row.
+
+---
+
+## 1. Hansen 2012 — 1951–1980 baseline (Trends, L176)
+
+**Vignette excerpt (current):** "Anomalies are computed against a
+pre-warming reference period — 1951–1980, the three decades before
+climate change accelerated. Saying a year is '+1.5 °C' means it was
+1.5 °C warmer than the average year between 1951 and 1980."
+
+**Source quote (#63 archive, `cumulative_impact_loaded_dice`):**
+> "3-sigma extreme outliers, which covered much less than 1% of
+> Earth's surface during the 1951–1980 base period, now typically
+> cover about 10% of the land area." — Hansen et al. 2012, PNAS
+
+**Rag store / topic:** `data/rag/interpretation_framing.duckdb` /
+`cumulative_impact_loaded_dice`
+
+**Paraphrase as written:** "1951–1980, the three decades before
+climate change accelerated. This is the same base period
+@hansen_etal2012Perceptionclimate use to detect the emergence of
+3-sigma summertime-temperature outliers globally."
+
+**Why warranted:** identical justification as #65 row 1. All
+anomaly plots reference the 1951–1980 baseline directly.
+
+---
+
+## 2. Arguez & Vose 2011 — WMO climate normal (Trends, L186)
+
+**Vignette excerpt (current):** "1981–present (45 years) — starts
+at the beginning of the World Meteorological Organization's most
+recent 30-year 'climate normal' (1981–2010)."
+
+**Source quote (#63 archive, `baseline_window_methodology`):**
+> "We propose that any potential alternative climate normal is the
+> result of changing one or more of these five attributes...
+> [WMO normals are] more useful as a comparison metric than as a
+> predictor of expected future conditions in a changing climate."
+> — Arguez & Vose 2011, BAMS
+
+**Rag store / topic:** `data/rag/interpretation_framing.duckdb` /
+`baseline_window_methodology`
+
+**Paraphrase as written:** "World Meteorological Organization's most
+recent 30-year 'climate normal' (1981–2010)
+[@arguez_vose2011DefinitionStandard]."
+
+**Why warranted:** identical to #65 row 2.
+
+---
+
+## 3. Karl 1993 — DTR asymmetry (Daytime/Overnight, L238)
+
+**Vignette excerpt (current):** "Overnight minimums warming faster
+than daytime maximums — the 'day-night asymmetry' — is one of the
+textbook fingerprints of greenhouse warming (Karl et al. 1993)."
+
+**Source quote (#58 archive, `dtr_asymmetry`):**
+> "the rise of the minimum temperature has occurred at a rate three
+> times that of the maximum temperature during the period 1951-90
+> (0.84°C versus 0.28°C)... The asymmetry is detectable in all
+> seasons and in most of the regions studied." — Karl et al. 1993,
+> BAMS
+
+**Rag store / topic:** `data/rag/temp_methodology.duckdb` /
+`dtr_asymmetry`
+
+**Paraphrase as written:** convert prose-style "(Karl et al. 1993)"
+→ "[@karl_etal1993NewPerspective]"
+
+**Why warranted:** vignette already names Karl 1993 in prose. **DTR
+asymmetry is STRONGER in Peace than in Kootenay** — the regional
+DTR narrowed by 0.4 °C cumulative (Peace L246-248) vs 0.2 °C in
+Kootenay. Direct visible match in the dtr plot.
+
+---
+
+## 4. Pepin 2015 + Rangwala-Miller 2012 — high-elevation/latitude amplification (Interpretation, L859-864)
+
+**Vignette excerpt (current):** "the northern, higher-elevation
+ecoregions (Omineca Mountains, Boreal Mountains and Plateaus)
+warmed about 0.2 °C more than the southern Fraser Basin, consistent
+with the well-documented pattern of high-latitude and
+high-elevation amplification — but it is small relative to the
+regional signal."
+
+**Source quotes (#58 archive, `elevation_dependent_warming`):**
+> "growing evidence that the rate of warming is amplified with
+> elevation, such that high-mountain environments experience more
+> rapid changes in temperature than environments at lower
+> elevations." — Pepin et al. 2015
+
+> "it is still uncertain whether mountainous regions generally are
+> warming at a different rate than the rest of the global land
+> surface, or whether elevation-based sensitivities in warming
+> rates are prevalent within mountains." — Rangwala & Miller 2012
+
+**Rag store / topic:** `data/rag/temp_methodology.duckdb` /
+`elevation_dependent_warming`
+
+**Paraphrase as written:** "the northern, higher-elevation
+ecoregions (Omineca Mountains, Boreal Mountains and Plateaus)
+warmed about 0.2 °C more than the southern Fraser Basin, consistent
+with the elevation-dependent warming signal documented at
+mid-latitude mountain sites
+[@pepin_etal2015Elevationdependentwarming], though the regional
+evidence base remains heterogeneous and not every mountain region
+shows the same pattern [@rangwala_miller2012Climatechange]."
+
+**Why warranted:** Interpretation paragraph explicitly invokes
+"high-latitude and high-elevation amplification." Per-ecoregion
+trend table (Per-Ecoregion Variation section) shows the
+0.2 °C-more-warming signal in BMP/Omineca vs Fraser Basin.
+
+**Note:** placed at L853-864 (Interpretation) NOT at Spatial
+Pattern L554-560. Peace's Spatial Pattern dominant gradient is
+**east-west, windward-of-Rockies** — not elevation per se.
+Pepin/Rangwala doesn't cleanly cover windward-slope amplification,
+so we don't decorate the Spatial Pattern section.
+
+---
+
+## 5. Ficklin & Novick 2017 — VPD continental drying (Interpretation, L887-897)
+
+**Vignette excerpt (current):** "Vapour pressure deficit — the gap
+between how much water the air could hold and how much it actually
+does — rose significantly in every ecoregion (p < 0.005 across all
+five). Warmer air holds more water before saturating, and that
+pulls moisture out of soil and vegetation through evaporation and
+transpiration. Soil moisture is essentially flat in every
+ecoregion — even where precipitation increased — because the
+warmer atmosphere is drinking the extra water back."
+
+**Source quote (#61 archive, `vpd_drying_continental`):**
+> "spring, summer, and fall seasons exhibited the largest areal
+> extent of significant increases in VPD... Significant increases
+> in VPD have been caused by air temperature increases and
+> relative humidity changes." — Ficklin & Novick 2017, JGR
+
+**Rag store / topic:** `data/rag/precip_drying_methodology.duckdb`
+/ `vpd_drying_continental`
+
+**Paraphrase as written:** "Vapour pressure deficit — the gap
+between how much water the air could hold and how much it actually
+does — rose significantly in every ecoregion (p < 0.005 across all
+five), mirroring the continental-scale drying that
+@ficklin_novick2017Historicprojected documented for the United
+States as a whole, driven by air-temperature increases and
+relative-humidity changes."
+
+**Why warranted:** **stronger Peace case than Kootenay.** Peace
+shows VPD up significantly *despite* precipitation rising 3-4%
+in 2 ecoregions — a pure evaporative-demand signal. Kootenay's
+VPD-drying claim was supported by precipitation also declining;
+here the air-temperature/RH-driven VPD increase OVERRIDES the
+modest precip gain. This is the cleanest "atmosphere is drying
+because it's getting warmer" attribution in either vignette.
+Visible in cmp_combined table (VPD with positive Δ + p < 0.001
+trend).
+
+---
+
+## 6. Mantua 2010 + Eaton & Scheller 1996 — climate-fish bridge (Interpretation, L925-938)
+
+**Vignette excerpt (current):** "For the cold-water resident
+salmonids the FWCP Peace supports — bull trout, Arctic grayling,
+mountain whitefish, rainbow trout, kokanee — these signals
+compound. Stream temperatures are likely rising in step with
+warmer ambient air temperatures..."
+
+**Source quotes (#58 archive, `climate_stream_temp_bridge`):**
+> "Simulations predict rising water temperatures will thermally
+> stress salmon throughout Washington's watersheds... combined
+> effects of warming summertime stream temperatures and altered
+> streamflows will likely reduce the reproductive success for many
+> Washington salmon populations." — Mantua et al. 2010, Climatic
+> Change
+
+> "cold-water and cool-water species are predicted to lose
+> substantially more thermal habitat than warm-water species."
+> — Eaton & Scheller 1996, L&O
+
+**Rag store / topic:** `data/rag/temp_methodology.duckdb` /
+`climate_stream_temp_bridge`
+
+**Paraphrase as written:** "Stream temperatures are likely rising
+in step with warmer ambient air temperatures, with the combined
+effects of warming summer stream temperatures and altered low
+flows likely reducing thermally-suitable habitat for cold-water
+species [@mantua_etal2010Climatechange;
+@eaton_scheller1996Effectsclimate]..."
+
+**Why warranted:** identical justification to #65 row 6. Load-
+bearing for FWCP fish-passage planner audience. Peace's salmonid
+list (bull trout, Arctic grayling, mountain whitefish, rainbow
+trout, kokanee) overlaps heavily with the cold-water cohort
+Eaton & Scheller 1996 covers.
+
+---
+
+## 7. Kang 2016 — Fraser freshet (Interpretation, L937-938)
+
+**Vignette excerpt (current):** "the neighbouring Fraser Basin
+documents the same kind of freshet advance (Kang et al. 2016) at
+comparable magnitude."
+
+**Source quote (#54 archive snow rag):**
+> "10-day advances of the onset of the spring freshets for the
+> Fraser River at Hope... declines persist during the recession
+> to lower flows in autumn just when the salmon are migrating up
+> the Fraser River." — Kang et al. 2016, Sci Rep
+
+**Rag store / topic:** `data/rag/snow_methodology.duckdb` /
+`bc_specific`
+
+**Paraphrase as written:** convert "(Kang et al. 2016)" →
+"[@kang_etal2016ImpactsRapidly]"
+
+**Why warranted:** identical to #65 row 7. Format consistency
+with the rest of the vignette. **Note:** Kang's Fraser AOI is
+geographically adjacent to Peace headwaters (Fraser drains
+southward from the same Continental Divide that the Peace
+crosses), making this comparison especially direct.
+
+---
+
+## Out-of-audit observations
+
+The 10 existing Snowpack-section `[@key]` markers from #54 are
+intact and well-grounded — not re-audited here.
+
+## Independent review agent — checklist
+
+The Phase 3 review agent should verify, for each row above:
+1. Source quote actually exists in cited paper (not hallucinated)
+2. Paraphrase faithful to source — no overreach
+3. "Why warranted" matches an actually-visible feature in plots/tables
+4. No decoration; cite is load-bearing
+
+Watch especially for:
+- Pepin/Rangwala fit at L853-864 (interpretation paragraph, not
+  spatial pattern) — verify the per-ecoregion trend table actually
+  shows the 0.2 °C-more-warming signal in northern ecoregions
+- Ficklin & Novick paraphrase faithfulness re Peace's "VPD up
+  *despite* precip up" framing

planning/active/findings.md

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+# Findings — Wire up peace-fwcp.Rmd citations (#67)
+
+## Issue context
+
+Same playbook as #65 (kootenay-lake wire-up), now applied to
+peace-fwcp.Rmd. 7 insertions total, 8 unique keys + 1 reuse,
+sparingly per the philosophy memory.
+
+## Pre-work read of `peace-fwcp.Rmd`
+
+940-line vignette. Section structure mirrors kootenay-lake exactly
+(both share the regional-vignette template per
+`project_regional_vignette_template.md` memory). 10 existing
+`[@key]` cites all in Snowpack + per-ecoregion-snow +
+interp-snow paragraphs from #54.
+
+## Per-AOI differences vs Kootenay
+
+The Peace's climate departure shows **opposite precipitation
+signal** to Kootenay:
+- Peace: annual precip up 3-4% regionally (significant in 2 of 5
+  ecoregions: BMP, NRM); soil moisture flat
+- Kootenay: annual precip down ~7% (significant); soil moisture
+  flat
+
+This makes the **VPD-driven drying claim more compelling for
+Peace** — soil moisture stays flat *despite* more precipitation
+arriving, because warmer atmosphere drinks it back. Ficklin &
+Novick 2017 is more load-bearing here than in Kootenay.
+
+DTR asymmetry is **stronger in Peace** (0.4 °C cumulative
+narrowing) than Kootenay (0.2 °C) — the textbook signal that Karl
+1993 documents shows up more clearly here. Cite warranted.
+
+EDW cite (Pepin/Rangwala) lands at L853-864 in Peace's
+**Interpretation** section (which explicitly invokes "high-latitude
+and high-elevation amplification"), NOT at the Spatial Pattern
+section like in Kootenay. Peace's spatial pattern is dominated by
+an E-W gradient (windward-of-Rockies), not pure elevation —
+Pepin/Rangwala don't cleanly cover windward-slope amplification.
+
+## Source corpus (same as #65)
+
+Pulling from the 4 archived findings.md files (snow #53, temp #58,
+precip+drying #61, framing #63). Audit log
+(`planning/active/citation_audit.md`) tracks each insertion.
+
+## Proposed insertion candidates
+
+7 high-value insertions identified in Phase 0 read (table in
+task_plan.md). Will refine via agent review in Phase 3.

planning/active/progress.md

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+# Progress — Wire up peace-fwcp.Rmd citations (#67)
+
+## Session 2026-05-05
+
+- Closed #65 (kootenay vignette wire-up): PR #66 merged, v0.2.5
+  released, planning files archived
+- Filed #67 (peace-fwcp vignette citation wire-up — same playbook
+  as #65, now for the second regional vignette)
+- Created branch `67-peace-vignette-wireup` off main
+- Phase 0 read of `peace-fwcp.Rmd` complete:
+  - 940-line vignette, same template structure as kootenay-lake
+  - 10 existing cites all in Snowpack section (from #54)
+  - Non-snow sections zero cites — same wire-up target
+  - Identified 7 candidate insertions (task_plan candidate table)
+  - Per-AOI nuance: VPD-drying cite stronger here (precip up,
+    soil moisture flat → pure VPD effect); DTR asymmetry stronger
+    here (0.4 °C narrowing); EDW cite belongs at Interpretation
+    not Spatial Pattern (Peace's dominant warming gradient is E-W
+    windward-of-Rockies, not pure elevation)
+- Scaffolded PWF baseline mirroring #65 structure
+- Phase 1 done: planning/active/citation_audit.md built with 7
+  rows; per-AOI nuances vs #65 captured (VPD-drying stronger
+  here; EDW belongs at Interpretation not Spatial Pattern; DTR
+  asymmetry stronger here)
+- Phase 2 done: 7 insertions made into peace-fwcp.Rmd (+42/-30
+  lines)
+- Phase 3 done: Explore subagent verified all 7 rows. **All
+  passed.** No edits or removals required. Agent specifically
+  validated the per-AOI nuances (Ficklin's mechanism applies to
+  Peace's "VPD up despite precip up" framing; EDW cite at
+  Interpretation paragraph appropriate; Mantua's WA scope used
+  as regional reference, not BC-specific claim)
+- Phase 4 done: references.bib regen via rbbt::bbt_update_bib
+  produced no diff (peace-fwcp + kootenay-lake use the same 18
+  citation keys; bib already includes all). Local render of
+  peace-fwcp.Rmd produced 4.0 MB HTML — all cites resolve
+- Next: Phase 5 — push branch, open PR