Maximum atmospheric ceiling for tropical cyclone development
0–10 Hurricane Potential Index (HPI) — NOT a formation probability
HurCAST is an open-source tropical cyclone potential scoring engine developed by the TorCAST team. It translates real-time environmental ingredients into a single 0–10 index that represents the maximum potential a basin could support if a disturbance were to materialize.
It is not a forecast model and does not predict formation probability. It answers the question:
“Given current ocean + atmosphere conditions, how high could the ceiling go?”
- Physics-based scoring adapted from the classic Genesis Potential Index (Emanuel & Nolan 2004)
- Pure Python — no external ML dependencies
- Fully documented, independently testable sub-scorers
- Realistic “reality checks” and seasonal scaling
- NHC GTWO outlook anchoring (like SPC for severe weather)
- Confidence/realization score (0–1)
- Storm-type ceiling classification (Tropical Storm → Major Hurricane)
- Designed for data ingestion and future tropical model training
“Show the maximum potential the atmosphere could produce.
Suppress nothing based on conditional flags — visualise uncertainty instead.”
HurCAST deliberately highlights conditional hurricane environments even when formation probability is low.
| Score Range | Label | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 – 1.9 | Unfavorable | Hostile environment |
| 2.0 – 3.4 | Marginal | Genesis unlikely |
| 3.5 – 4.9 | Conditional | Some ingredients present |
| 5.0 – 6.4 | Favorable | Good environment |
| 6.5 – 7.9 | High Ceiling | Intensification likely |
| 8.0 – 10.0 | Extreme | Major hurricane potential |