Penrose v0.3.0

[0.3.0] — 2026-06-27

A robustness, agent-surface, and data release. Post-0.2.0 work, much of it surfaced by a fresh-clone
audit and by refereeing an external code-complete framework, then adversarially swarm-audited.

Added

• Tail-risk / widow-maker gate (default-off). Every backtest now reports tail diagnostics (skew,
  CVaR-5/95, tail ratio, max loss vs gain, worst-vs-typical). An opt-in TAIL_RISK_GATE kills (or caps
  at watch) a stable, well-deflated strategy whose payoff is bounded-up / unbounded-down (negative
  skew, fat left tail) — the short-vol / positive-carry blind spot the other gates miss. Default-off, so
  no existing verdict moves; tail_asymmetric is a structural kill for principle formation.
• Contrastive principles. A second distiller learns from the survivor-vs-kill boundary: when a
  structural failure mode recurs in one domain but other domains yield survivors, it proposes an advisory
  contrastive principle (e.g. "regime_fragile is specific to trend-following; carry survives it").
  Additive (recurrence principles unchanged); surfaced via views.principles() and the read-only MCP.
• Point-in-time futures data adapter (pysystemtrade). A fail-open BYO local vendor that reads
  pysystemtrade adjusted-price CSVs, always resamples intraday→daily through the granularity gate before
  the data can reach verdict logic, and tags provenance back-adjusted + resampled. Instrument names are
  restricted to safe characters (no path traversal). Inactive/harmless when no futures dir is configured.
• Agent-readable principle surface. views.principles() and views.proposals() expose the
  distilled principle candidates and the propose-only store as structured read-only data, so an agent
  can pull and discuss "what candidates exist" without the dashboard. The read-only MCP routes its
  penrose_principles / penrose_proposals tools through these accessors (one read path, no drift);
  promotion to the approved brain still requires human P9.
• trend-following domain in cross-run principle inference, so trend / EWMAC claims cluster as
  trend-following instead of falling through to other.
• Data-granularity verification (penrose.data.granularity). Infers a series' empirical sampling
  frequency from its index and flags a mismatch with the expected frequency (e.g. intraday bars where a
  rule assumes daily, which silently corrupts every downstream statistic). The input-side analogue of
  the existing output bars_per_year-vs-span check. DataBundle.granularity_warnings() surfaces it;
  advisory and fail-open by default (no verdict change).

Fixed

• Trusted operator modules now ship in every clone. The public .gitignore (modules/*) was
  dropping the reviewed crypto_funding_carry and macro_vol_btc modules from published clones, so a
  fresh clone failed the PROVENANCE-SHELF eval invariant (92/93) even though the README documents both.
  The two trusted modules now ship (generated _auto modules stay ignored); a cold clone passes 93/93.
• Graceful capacity on low-turnover strategies. capacity_ci raised OverflowError converting an
  infinite modeled capacity (a strategy that barely trades drives turnover toward zero) into an integer,
  crashing the entire backtest. It now drops non-finite resamples and reports capacity as undefined,
  consistent with the fail-visibly contract. Regression-tested.
• Public test bar. A test_cli check read Makefile.public, which the public build renames to
  Makefile, so the shipped test failed in the distribution it ships to. It now reads whichever exists;
  the public pytest bar is a clean 137 passed / 2 skipped.

Docs

• Quickstart uses the real clone URL and surfaces the process-conditional worked example as the
  recommended first reproduction; eval count corrected to 93/93 in AGENTS.md / CLAUDE.md.
• Companion-paper bibliographies verified against publisher / arXiv records.