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Oct 30, 2025
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calibrated #23

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34 changes: 2 additions & 32 deletions reweighting/long_term.py
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Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -18,23 +18,7 @@
# Trustees SingleYearTRTables_TR2025.xlsx, Tab VI.G9
# Intermediate scenario for row 69, for Intermediate Scenario, 2027, Cost is: $1,715 billion
ss_cost_b = 1_715
assert ss_total_b > ss_cost_b # 2 years of inflation


# Note: not our CPI-W: parameters.gov.bls.cpi.cpi_w("2026-01-05")
#
# CPI from Trustees SingleYearTRTables_TR2025.xlsx, Tab VI.G6
cpi_w_2025 = 100
cpi_w_2027 = 104.95

cpi_w_2025_b = parameters.gov.ssa.uprating("2025-01-01")
cpi_w_2027_b = parameters.gov.ssa.uprating("2027-01-01")

ratio = cpi_w_2027 / cpi_w_2025
ratio_b = cpi_w_2027_b / cpi_w_2025_b

assert round(ss_total_b) == round(ss_cost_b * ratio) # Fails, but close

assert round(ss_total_b) > ss_cost_b

# 2100
sim = Microsimulation(dataset = H5_PATH + "2100.h5")
Expand All @@ -46,21 +30,7 @@
# Trustees SingleYearTRTables_TR2025.xlsx, Tab VI.G9
# Intermediate scenario for row 143, for Intermediate Scenario, 2100, Cost is: $1,033,686.26 billion
ss_cost_b = 5809
assert ss_total_b > ss_cost_b # many years of inflation

parameters.gov.ssa.uprating# Note: not our CPI-W: parameters.gov.bls.cpi.cpi_w("2026-01-05")
#
# CPI from Trustees SingleYearTRTables_TR2025.xlsx, Tab VI.G6
cpi_w_2025 = 100
cpi_w_2100 = 592.78

cpi_w_2025_b = parameters.gov.ssa.uprating("2025-01-06")
cpi_w_2100_b = parameters.gov.ssa.uprating("2100-01-06")

ratio = cpi_w_2100 / cpi_w_2025
ratio_b = cpi_w_2100_b / cpi_w_2025_b

assert round(ss_total_b) == round(ss_cost_b * ratio) # fails, not close!
assert round(ss_total_b) == ss_cost_b

# Population count, total
ss_total_pop = 458_325_282
Expand Down