FRS reweighting produces inflated renter counts, social rent levels, and council tax revenue

[vahid-ahmadi]

Summary

PolicyEngine UK's 2026 baseline estimates diverge from official statistics in renter populations, social rent levels, and council tax revenue.

Comparison with official statistics

Metric	PE model (2026)	Official stat	Gap	Source
Private renters	7.3m	~5.5m (UK-wide)	+33%	English Housing Survey 2023-24 + devolved equivalents
Social renters	5.8m	~4.8-5.0m	+16-20%	EHS 2023-24; RSH 2023-24
Avg social rent	£8,141/yr	~£6,100/yr (£118/wk)	+33%	EHS 2023-24 Ch.2; RSH 2024-25
Council tax revenue	£60.4bn	~£51bn	+18%	OBR Council Tax forecast 2025-26

Metrics that match well:

• Avg private rent (£13,231 vs ~£12,300 EHS mean) — close
• Avg housing costs concept is correct (rent + mortgage + water/sewerage = £278.8bn, not directly comparable to rent-only figures)

Root causes

1. Renter populations are inflated

Private renters are overstated by ~33% and social renters by ~16-20%, which inflates all aggregate rent totals.

2. Social rent may include service charges

The £8,141/yr average social rent is ~33% above the EHS mean of ~£6,100/yr (£118/wk). This could be because the FRS rent variable includes service charges or water rates that are excluded from the EHS/RSH rent definitions.

3. Council tax revenue is ~18% too high

£60.4bn vs OBR's ~£51bn forecast for 2025-26, likely driven by the inflated household count.

Suggested fixes

1. Calibrate renter household counts to EHS/ONS tenure distribution targets during reweighting
2. Investigate social rent definition — check if FRS rent includes service charges and whether this should be stripped out to match standard definitions

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