Calibration matrix builder leaks non-qualifying entity amounts into constrained non-household amount targets

[juaristi22]

The calibration matrix builder is over-attributing dollars for constrained amount targets whose native entity is not household.

This is most visible on total_self_employment_income, but the issue is broader: it affects any non-household amount target where constraints are evaluated at person level and then promoted to household before the final amount is assigned.

Current behavior:

• The builder first pre-aggregates the target variable to household.
• It evaluates the target constraints at person level.
• It then promotes the constraint result to household with a household-level any().
• Finally, it assigns the full household amount whenever any qualifying person is present.

That means non-qualifying dollars can leak into the target stratum.

Concrete example:

• Person A has total_self_employment_income = 10,000 and is in a filing tax unit.
• Person B has total_self_employment_income = 5,000 and is not in a filing tax unit.
• The constrained target is intended to represent filer-only self-employment income.
• The current matrix logic attributes 15,000 to that stratum instead of 10,000.

Why this matters for total_self_employment_income:

• The DB target is semantically correct.
• The target row is constrained to tax_unit_is_filer == 1 and total_self_employment_income > 0.
• After compat registration, total_self_employment_income is a person-level variable.
• So the intended target is filer-only Schedule C / self-employment income, not total household self-employment income whenever one person qualifies.

Affected code paths:

• policyengine_us_data/calibration/unified_matrix_builder.py
• _compute_single_state and _compute_single_state_group_counties pre-aggregate amount targets to household with map_to="household".
• _evaluate_constraints_standalone evaluates constraints at person level and promotes them to household with .any().
• _calculate_target_values_standalone multiplies the household total by that promoted household mask.
• The same aggregate-first / mask-later pattern is also duplicated in the build loop paths used for sequential and worker-based matrix construction.

Expected behavior:

• For constrained amount targets whose native entity is person, tax_unit, or spm_unit, qualifying amounts should be selected at the target’s native entity before rolling up to household for the matrix.
• In other words, only qualifying entity amounts should contribute to the target row.
• Household-native amount targets should keep their current household semantics.
• Count targets should keep their current entity-aware behavior.

Impact:

• total_self_employment_income is overstated in constrained filer-only strata whenever a household mixes qualifying and non-qualifying self-employment income.
• The same leakage can affect other constrained amount targets with non-household native entities.
• This can distort calibration weights even when the target definitions in the DB are correct.

Acceptance criteria:

• Constrained non-household amount targets include only qualifying entity amounts.
• total_self_employment_income filer-only targets no longer pick up non-filer household members’ self-employment income.
• Household-native amount targets are unchanged.
• Count targets are unchanged.
• Regression tests cover at least:
  • a person-entity amount target with mixed qualifying / non-qualifying members in one household
  • a tax-unit amount target counted once per qualifying tax unit
  • a household-native amount target preserving current behavior