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lectures/rational_expectations.md

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@@ -77,7 +77,7 @@ We'll also use the LQ class from `QuantEcon.py`.
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from quantecon import LQ
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```
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### The Big Y, little y Trick
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### The big Y, little y trick
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This widely used method applies in contexts in which a **representative firm** or agent is a "price taker" operating within a competitive equilibrium.
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We begin by applying the Big $Y$, little $y$ trick in a very simple static context.
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#### A Simple Static Example of the Big Y, little y Trick
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#### A simple static example of the big Y, little y trick
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Consider a static model in which a unit measure of firms produce a homogeneous good that is sold in a competitive market.
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After solving for $Y$, we can compute the competitive equilibrium price $p$ from the inverse demand curve {eq}`ree_comp3d_static`.
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### Related Planning Problem
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### Related planning problem
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Define **consumer surplus** as the area under the inverse demand curve:
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* {cite}`Sargent1987`, chapter XIV
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* {cite}`Ljungqvist2012`, chapter 7
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## Rational Expectations Equilibrium
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## Rational expectations equilibrium
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```{index} single: Rational Expectations Equilibrium; Definition
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```
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We formulate a rational expectations equilibrium in terms of a fixed point of an operator that maps beliefs into optimal beliefs.
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### Competitive Equilibrium with Adjustment Costs
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### Competitive equilibrium with adjustment costs
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```{index} single: Rational Expectations Equilibrium; Competitive Equilbrium (w. Adjustment Costs)
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```
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* $Y_t = \int_0^1 y_t(\omega) d \omega = y_t$ is the market-wide level of output
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#### The Firm's Problem
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#### The firm's problem
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Each firm is a price taker.
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We turn to this problem now.
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#### Prices and Aggregate Output
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#### Prices and aggregate output
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In view of {eq}`ree_comp3d`, the firm's incentive to forecast the market price translates into an incentive to forecast aggregate output $Y_t$.
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That justifies firms in regarding their forecasts of aggregate output as being unaffected by their own output decisions.
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#### Representative Firm's Beliefs
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#### Representative firm's beliefs
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We suppose the firm believes that market-wide output $Y_t$ follows the law of motion
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Because of this, at this stage $Y_{t+1}$ only means the perceived output in the next period, $Y^e_{t+1}$.
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#### Optimal Behavior Given Beliefs
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#### Optimal behavior given beliefs
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For now, let's fix a particular belief $H$ in {eq}`ree_hlom` and investigate the firm's response to it.
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Evidently $v$ and $h$ both depend on $H$.
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#### Characterization with First-Order Necessary Conditions
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#### Characterization with first-order necessary conditions
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In what follows it will be helpful to have a second characterization of $h$, based on first-order conditions.
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Note that solving the Bellman equation {eq}`comp4` for $v$ and then $h$ in {eq}`ree_opbe` yields
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a decision rule that automatically imposes both the Euler equation {eq}`ree_comp7` and the transversality condition.
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#### The Actual Law of Motion for Output
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#### The actual law of motion for output
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As we've seen, a given belief translates into a particular decision rule $h$.
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Thus, when firms believe that the law of motion for market-wide output is {eq}`ree_hlom`, their optimizing behavior makes the actual law of motion be {eq}`ree_comp9a`.
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### Definition of Rational Expectations Equilibrium
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### Definition of rational expectations equilibrium
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```{prf:definition}
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A **rational expectations equilibrium** or **recursive competitive equilibrium** of the model with adjustment costs is a decision rule $h$ and an aggregate law of motion $H$ such that
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1. Given belief $H$, the map $h$ is the firm's optimal policy function.
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1. The law of motion $H$ satisfies $H(Y)= h(Y,Y)$ for all
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$Y$.
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```
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Thus, a rational expectations equilibrium equates the perceived and actual laws of motion {eq}`ree_hlom` and {eq}`ree_comp9a`.
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#### Fixed Point Characterization
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#### Fixed point characterization
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As we've seen, the firm's optimum problem induces a mapping $\Phi$ from a perceived law of motion $H$ for market-wide output to an actual law of motion $\Phi(H)$.
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The mapping $\Phi$ is the composition of two mappings, the first of which maps a perceived law of motion into a decision rule via {eq}`comp4`--{eq}`ree_opbe`, the second of which maps a decision rule into an actual law via {eq}`ree_comp9a`.
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The $H$ component of a rational expectations equilibrium is a fixed point of $\Phi$.
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## Computing an Equilibrium
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## Computing an equilibrium
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```{index} single: Rational Expectations Equilibrium; Computation
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```
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Now let's compute a rational expectations equilibrium.
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### Failure of Contractivity
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### Failure of contractivity
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Readers accustomed to dynamic programming arguments might try to address this problem by choosing some guess $H_0$ for the aggregate law of motion and then iterating with $\Phi$.
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Some details follow.
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### A Planning Problem Approach
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### A planning problem approach
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```{index} single: Rational Expectations Equilibrium; Planning Problem Approach
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```
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subject to an initial condition for $Y_0$.
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### Solution of Planning Problem
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### Solution of planning problem
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Evaluating the integral in {eq}`comp10` yields the quadratic form $a_0
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Y_t - a_1 Y_t^2 / 2$.
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\beta a_0 + \gamma Y_t - [\beta a_1 + \gamma (1+ \beta)]Y_{t+1} + \gamma \beta Y_{t+2} =0
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```
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### Key Insight
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### Key insight
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Return to equation {eq}`ree_comp7` and set $y_t = Y_t$ for all $t$.
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The optimal policy function for the planning problem is the aggregate law of motion
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$H$ that the representative firm faces within a rational expectations equilibrium.
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#### Structure of the Law of Motion
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#### Structure of the law of motion
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As you are asked to show in the exercises, the fact that the planner's
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problem is an LQ control problem implies an optimal policy --- and hence aggregate law
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:class: dropdown
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```
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To map a problem into a [discounted optimal linear control
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problem](https://python.quantecon.org/lqcontrol.html), we need to define
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To map a problem into a {doc}`discounted optimal linear control problem<lqcontrol>`, we need to define
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- state vector $x_t$ and control vector $u_t$
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- matrices $A, B, Q, R$ that define preferences and the law of

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