idwx — Idaho Seasonal Agro-Weather Models (frost, winter, growing season)

idwx is a local-first modeling repo for turning long historical station data into:

• Last spring frost date predictions (P10/P50/P90)
• First fall frost date predictions (P10/P50/P90)
• Winter severity forecasts (rank + percentile + components)
• Growing season metrics and forecasts (freeze-free window, GDD)

This is not daily weather forecasting. This is seasonal / event forecasting for agriculture.

Data location (local, not committed)

Raw CSVs live on this machine:

~/historical_weather_data-1980-2022/idaho/

This repo assumes you have ~50 years of daily or hourly station data for ~20 locations.

Core principles

• Local-first: data stays on disk, never committed.
• Reproducible: configs define everything.
• Comparable: multiple models, same targets, same scoring.
• Honest: always output uncertainty intervals and baseline comparisons.

Repo layout