Stock Direction Predictor

A machine learning model developed in Jupyter Notebook using Python that predicts the next-day market trends. The project uses a random forest classification model to make predictions of whether tomorrow's closing price is higher or lower than the previous day. This project was made to learn about machine learning and its concepts like feature engineering, handling overfitting/underfitting, and evaluating model performance.

Python Libraries

NOTE: pandas-ta went closed-source and may not be publicly available

Features

• Forward Feature Selection: The feature engineering process individually adds on indicators with the highest precision score after each run.
• Classification Model: The model predicts up (positive) or down (negative) which is easier to predict, but also harder to capitalize on the predictions it outputs since magnitude is not predicted.
• Random Forest Algorithm: This algorithm aggregates the mode of many many decision trees to train and make a prediction.

Running the Project

To run the project in your local environment, follow these steps:

1. Clone the repository to your local machine.
2. Run all the cells above program.
3. Adjust tickers, time frame, confidence, and features to your own liking.
4. Run the program cell and view your results.

Results

Baseline

Equity	Symbol	Accuracy Score	Precision Score	Recall Score	F1 Score	Bullish Frequency	Bearish Frequency	Positive Rate	Negative Rate	Positive Predictions	Negative Predictions	Total Predictions
Visa Inc.	V	0.512113	0.568662	0.402242	0.471189	0.540377	0.459623	0.382234	0.617766	568	918	1486
International Business Machines	IBM	0.535666	0.557429	0.662078	0.605263	0.537685	0.462315	0.638627	0.361373	949	537	1486
Procter & Gamble Company (The)	PG	0.505384	0.546900	0.433249	0.483486	0.534320	0.465680	0.423284	0.576716	629	857	1486
NVIDIA Corporation	NVDA	0.481157	0.541176	0.339483	0.417234	0.547106	0.452894	0.343203	0.656797	510	976	1486
Coca-Cola Company (The)	KO	0.499327	0.533795	0.393359	0.452941	0.526918	0.473082	0.388291	0.611709	577	909	1486
Chevron Corporation	CVX	0.506729	0.533648	0.572152	0.552230	0.531629	0.468371	0.569987	0.430013	847	639	1486
Meta Platforms, Inc.	META	0.503946	0.533499	0.460385	0.494253	0.526494	0.473506	0.454340	0.545660	403	484	887
Johnson & Johnson	JNJ	0.502692	0.532995	0.274510	0.362381	0.514805	0.485195	0.265141	0.734859	394	1092	1486
Amazon.com, Inc.	AMZN	0.496635	0.528340	0.336340	0.411024	0.522207	0.477793	0.332436	0.667564	494	992	1486
Pepsico, Inc.	PEP	0.495289	0.526971	0.327320	0.403816	0.522207	0.477793	0.324361	0.675639	482	1004	1486
3M Company	MMM	0.520861	0.524070	0.633598	0.573653	0.508748	0.491252	0.615074	0.384926	914	572	1486
Verizon Communications Inc.	VZ	0.524226	0.523288	0.515520	0.519375	0.498654	0.501346	0.491252	0.508748	730	756	1486
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated	UNH	0.491925	0.523148	0.431847	0.473133	0.528264	0.471736	0.436070	0.563930	648	838	1486
Walmart Inc.	WMT	0.490579	0.521739	0.486692	0.503607	0.530956	0.469044	0.495289	0.504711	736	750	1486
Lockheed Martin Corporation	LMT	0.499327	0.520930	0.574359	0.546341	0.524899	0.475101	0.578735	0.421265	860	626	1486
Cisco Systems, Inc.	CSCO	0.498654	0.516706	0.560155	0.537554	0.520188	0.479812	0.563930	0.436070	838	648	1486
Intel Corporation	INTC	0.516151	0.516484	0.444595	0.477850	0.497981	0.502019	0.428668	0.571332	637	849	1486
Oracle Corporation	ORCL	0.475774	0.514870	0.348428	0.415604	0.534993	0.465007	0.362046	0.637954	538	948	1486
Microsoft Corporation	MSFT	0.479139	0.511811	0.411914	0.456461	0.530956	0.469044	0.427322	0.572678	635	851	1486
Wells Fargo & Company	WFC	0.494616	0.502755	0.483444	0.492910	0.508075	0.491925	0.488560	0.511440	726	760	1486
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)	GS	0.475774	0.495522	0.429495	0.460152	0.520188	0.479812	0.450875	0.549125	670	816	1486
Boeing Company (The)	BA	0.500000	0.492596	0.685440	0.573234	0.489906	0.510094	0.681696	0.318304	1013	473	1486
AT&T Inc.	T	0.477793	0.490476	0.404450	0.443329	0.514132	0.485868	0.423957	0.576043	630	856	1486
Exxon Mobil Corporation	XOM	0.472409	0.481739	0.363041	0.414051	0.513459	0.486541	0.386945	0.613055	575	911	1486
Pfizer, Inc.	PFE	0.508748	0.476106	0.382646	0.424290	0.473082	0.526918	0.380215	0.619785	565	921	1486
Walt Disney Company (The)	DIS	0.494616	0.473684	0.426778	0.449010	0.482503	0.517497	0.434724	0.565276	646	840	1486

Final

Equity	Symbol	Accuracy Score	Precision Score	Recall Score	F1 Score	Bullish Frequency	Bearish Frequency	Positive Rate	Negative Rate	Positive Predictions	Negative Predictions	Total Predictions
NVIDIA Corporation	NVDA	0.569473	0.672878	0.408291	0.508210	0.544832	0.455168	0.330595	0.669405	483	978	1461
Chevron Corporation	CVX	0.637919	0.669333	0.641124	0.654925	0.535934	0.464066	0.513347	0.486653	750	711	1461
Procter & Gamble Company (The)	PG	0.596851	0.664948	0.495519	0.567865	0.534565	0.465435	0.398357	0.601643	582	879	1461
Oracle Corporation	ORCL	0.564682	0.652361	0.390746	0.488746	0.532512	0.467488	0.318960	0.681040	466	995	1461
Coca-Cola Company (The)	KO	0.617385	0.649645	0.594805	0.621017	0.527036	0.472964	0.482546	0.517454	705	756	1461
International Business Machines	IBM	0.613963	0.646518	0.625159	0.635659	0.538672	0.461328	0.520876	0.479124	761	700	1461
Lockheed Martin Corporation	LMT	0.595483	0.644407	0.505236	0.566398	0.522930	0.477070	0.409993	0.590007	599	862	1461
Walmart Inc.	WMT	0.590007	0.643200	0.516710	0.573058	0.532512	0.467488	0.427789	0.572211	625	836	1461
Pepsico, Inc.	PEP	0.628337	0.642857	0.648755	0.645793	0.522245	0.477755	0.527036	0.472964	770	691	1461
Microsoft Corporation	MSFT	0.574264	0.634752	0.462532	0.535127	0.529774	0.470226	0.386037	0.613963	564	897	1461
Verizon Communications Inc.	VZ	0.618754	0.633540	0.559671	0.594319	0.498973	0.501027	0.440794	0.559206	644	817	1461
3M Company	MMM	0.632444	0.633420	0.658143	0.645545	0.508556	0.491444	0.528405	0.471595	772	689	1461
Exxon Mobil Corporation	XOM	0.592060	0.633333	0.502646	0.560472	0.517454	0.482546	0.410678	0.589322	600	861	1461
Johnson & Johnson	JNJ	0.598905	0.632686	0.521333	0.571637	0.513347	0.486653	0.422998	0.577002	618	843	1461
Visa Inc.	V	0.587269	0.631124	0.557962	0.592292	0.537303	0.462697	0.475017	0.524983	694	767	1461
Pfizer, Inc.	PFE	0.632444	0.629752	0.548991	0.586605	0.475017	0.524983	0.414100	0.585900	605	856	1461
AT&T Inc.	T	0.587269	0.628521	0.476636	0.542141	0.512663	0.487337	0.388775	0.611225	568	893	1461
Amazon.com, Inc.	AMZN	0.560575	0.627660	0.387139	0.478896	0.521561	0.478439	0.321697	0.678303	470	991	1461
Wells Fargo & Company	WFC	0.599589	0.626935	0.540721	0.580645	0.512663	0.487337	0.442163	0.557837	646	815	1461
Cisco Systems, Inc.	CSCO	0.601643	0.625532	0.581028	0.602459	0.519507	0.480493	0.482546	0.517454	705	756	1461
Intel Corporation	INTC	0.609856	0.619414	0.554483	0.585153	0.496235	0.503765	0.444216	0.555784	649	812	1461
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The)	GS	0.581109	0.612557	0.527009	0.566572	0.519507	0.480493	0.446954	0.553046	653	808	1461
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated	UNH	0.566051	0.612313	0.478544	0.537226	0.526352	0.473648	0.411362	0.588638	601	860	1461
Boeing Company (The)	BA	0.616701	0.606757	0.625348	0.615912	0.491444	0.508556	0.506502	0.493498	740	721	1461
Walt Disney Company (The)	DIS	0.610541	0.602963	0.574859	0.588576	0.484600	0.515400	0.462012	0.537988	675	786	1461
Meta Platforms, Inc.	META	0.540603	0.578082	0.465784	0.515892	0.525522	0.474478	0.423434	0.576566	365	497	862