Desktop updater: keep checking after a declined update, surface errors, fix install-on-quit leak

[RhysSullivan]

Summary

Fixes five updater state-machine issues:

• A declined staged update no longer stops the 4 hour auto-check, including the incident where v1.5.27 was staged, "Later" was clicked, and the v1.5.28 notification was suppressed until restart.
• Manual "Check for Updates" now checks upstream before re-prompting a staged version.
• Updater errors transition active available/downloading status to a renderer-visible error state.
• Fatal startup recovery restores autoInstallOnAppQuit=false after reset data and retry.
• quitAndInstall stops the supervised monitor before restart.

Re-prompt policy

• Automatic boot and interval checks keep running while a version is staged.
• Automatic prompts are suppressed for the same declined version.
• If a newer version stages, the automatic prompt fires again.
• Manual checks re-check upstream first, then re-prompt the staged version only if no newer version is taking over.

Unit coverage

• Declined v1.5.27, then v1.5.28 arrives and auto prompts.
• Declined v1.5.27, then interval checks continue without a same-version prompt.
• Manual check with a staged version re-checks and re-prompts when no newer version wins.
• Download error moves active status to error and leaves idle idle.
• Fatal recovery plan restores autoInstallOnAppQuit on reset and retry.

Verification

• bun run --cwd apps/desktop test -- src/main/updater-state.test.ts
• bun run typecheck
• bun run lint
• bun run format:check

Behavioral updater verification is deferred. These flows need real GitHub releases; this PR does not launch the Electron app on the host.

Stack

1. e2e: repro stale launchd registration slow-boot #1297
2. Desktop boot: show window immediately, self-heal stale launchd state, fix boot-path latency #1303
3. Desktop updater: keep checking after a declined update, surface errors, fix install-on-quit leak #1305 👈 current

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