docs(phase4.5b): mark 4.5b wave ✅ DONE + bump next deliverable to 4.5c#94
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Phase 4.5b disclosure-driven catches shipped via PR #93. Production verified on run #48 (commit `849b7ca8`, workflow 2h08m due to cold-cache populating both new `edgar_amendments` + `edgar_late_filings` dirs; warm runs return to ~1h30m). ## What shipped | Flag | Lookback | Production fire | Notes | |---|---|---|---| | `restatement_history` | 5y 10-K/A + 10-Q/A | **60 / 502 (12.0%)** | within expected 6-16% — AMD, DIS, CVX, BSX, EBAY etc. (mostly mature firms with periodic amendments) | | `late_filing_notification` | 365d Form 12b-25 | **2 / 502 (0.4%)** | HAS + Q — slightly under expected 1-4% (S&P 500 firms tend to be more compliant than broader Bartov-Lai-Yeung sample) | ## End-state defense layer - Active vetoes: **7** (unchanged — 4.5b is annotate-only) - Annotate flags: 5 → **7** (+ `restatement_history`, `late_filing_notification`) - Reason taxonomy: 29 → **31** - **Defense layer 9 → 13 layers after 4.5a + 4.5b** No schema delta — both new flags are strings in existing `valuation_warnings: list[str]`. `SCHEMA_VERSION` stays `0.7.1-phase4g`. ## Triple-doc lockstep changes | File | Change | |---|---| | `CLAUDE.md` | "Next deliverable" reframed from 4.5b to 4.5c (Roychowdhury REM). Defense layer count "9 → 11 after 4.5a" → "9 → 13 after 4.5a + 4.5b". 4.5b results summary appended. | | `PHASE_STATUS.md` | Phase 4.5 table row updated with 4.5b results + tickers + 60/2 counts. §4.5b header flipped to ✅ DONE 2026-05-16 with results table + workflow time note (cold-cache 2h08m). Original plan text preserved below for audit. | | `WORKFLOW.md` | §Tasks §4.5b — all 4 checkboxes [ ] → [x] with PR-number + LOC + test-count + production-verification citations. SEC Filing Roadmap table: 4 new rows for 10-K/A, 10-Q/A, NT 10-K, NT 10-Q (all ✅ active with PR #93 / 2026-05-16 production-fire-rate footnotes). Form 4 status flipped from "❌ not used" to "⬜ planned (Phase 4.5e)" to reflect the upcoming sub-PR. | ## Next deliverable **Phase 4.5c — Real Earnings Management (Roychowdhury 2006 REM)**: - 3 abnormal proxies per ticker: - `abnormal_CFO` = actual − model(Sales, ΔSales) - `abnormal_production` = actual − model(Sales, ΔSales, ΔSales_t−1) - `abnormal_discretionary_expenses` = actual − model(Sales_t−1) - Flag `rem_suspect` fires when 2 of 3 proxies sit in worst decile within sector - ~250 LOC + golden tests against Roychowdhury 2006 paper Table 6 - Catches REAL manipulation (cutting R&D, channel stuffing, deferring maintenance) — invisible to Sloan/Beneish/Dechow which target accrual manipulation ## Audit trail (post-v1.0 doc PRs) | PR | Purpose | |---|---| | #81 | 4g ✅ DONE | | #86 | Phase 4.5 roadmap added | | #87 | "PR 4b next" → "§3 polish next" (was wrong) | | #88 | "§3 polish next" → "Phase-5 blocked" (was wrong) | | #92 | 4.5a wave ✅ DONE | | **this PR** | 4.5b wave ✅ DONE | ## Verification - No code changes; docs only - `grep "Next deliverable.*4.5b"` returns 0 hits (all moved to 4.5c) - `grep "9 → 13"` appears in CLAUDE.md (new defense layer count) - `grep "10-K/A.*✅ active"` returns the new WORKFLOW.md filing-roadmap row https://claude.ai/code/session_015649aRyi2bvciQYZVNACd2
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Summary
Phase 4.5b shipped via PR #93. Production verified on run #48 (commit
849b7ca8, workflow 2h08m due to cold-cache populating both newedgar_amendments+edgar_late_filingsdirs; warm runs return to ~1h30m).What shipped
restatement_historylate_filing_notificationEnd-state defense layer
restatement_history,late_filing_notification)No schema delta — both flags are strings in existing
valuation_warnings: list[str].Triple-doc lockstep
CLAUDE.mdPHASE_STATUS.mdWORKFLOW.md❌ not used→⬜ planned (Phase 4.5e).Next deliverable
Phase 4.5c — Real Earnings Management (Roychowdhury 2006 REM):
abnormal_CFO+abnormal_production+abnormal_discretionary_expenses) modelled per sector-industry quintilerem_suspectfires when 2 of 3 in worst decile within sectorTest plan
grep "Next deliverable.*4.5b"returns 0 hitsgrep "9 → 13"appears in CLAUDE.mdhttps://claude.ai/code/session_015649aRyi2bvciQYZVNACd2
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