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P2: document unknown-unknown detector validation methodology #160

@yohei1126

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@yohei1126

Context

Annex A claims 60–90 day pre-designation lead time for unknown-unknown vessels. Without a clear validation methodology, Cap Vista cannot independently verify this claim.

Required

Add an "Unknown-Unknown Validation Strategy" subsection to Annex A Week 7 deliverables:

  • Baseline: Known OFAC-listed vessels not on any list 90 days prior. Measure whether they appear in the unknown-unknown watchlist at the 90-day lookback point.
  • Ground truth: OFAC SDN designation date as label.
  • Metrics to report:
    • Recall@30 (fraction of vessels designated within 90 days that were already surfaced)
    • Precision@30 (fraction of unknown-unknown candidates eventually designated)

Acceptance criteria

  • Annex A Week 7 deliverables section includes the unknown-unknown validation methodology
  • Week 7 trial report includes Recall@30 and Precision@30 for the unknown-unknown detector

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