-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 0
Data Sources
The global data layer that feeds CAOS_SEISMIC. Every source listed here is open, scriptable, and ingestible in an automated daily job. The page states, for each source: what it gives, how to access it, its license / attribution obligation, its update cadence, and its feasibility for daily inference.
Honest framing. The dominant signal in every published short-term forecasting result is the earthquake catalog itself (ETAS-class clustering). Geodesy, fault geometry, slab geometry, stress, and tides are upside, not foundation — they ship only if they show positive, significant pseudo-prospective information gain over a catalog-only baseline. This page therefore separates the catalog spine (load-bearing) from the complementary global enrichers (covariates), and treats tidal stress as a regularized covariate with an honestly small, regime-dependent effect size.
CAOS_SEISMIC is a global forecaster: it trains on global seismicity plus every complementary global covariate, and runs inference across many countries — high-seismicity (Chile, Japan, Indonesia, Mexico, Türkiye, California, New Zealand) and low-seismicity (United Kingdom, Germany, Australia, Brazil) — so that bias toward high-seismicity zones can be measured rather than assumed. The data layer is correspondingly global.
flowchart TD
subgraph SPINE["Catalog spine (load-bearing)"]
COMCAT["USGS ComCat (FDSN event)<br/>real-time global, daily"]
ISCREV["ISC Bulletin REVIEWED + ISC-EHB<br/>relocated, ~24-month lag"]
ISCGEM["ISC-GEM v12.1<br/>Mw-homogenized, 1904-2021"]
GCMT["GCMT (.ndk)<br/>moment tensors, Mw>=5"]
EMSC["EMSC SeismicPortal<br/>independent cross-check"]
end
subgraph ENRICH["Complementary global enrichers (covariates)"]
SLAB2["Slab2<br/>subduction geometry"]
FAULTS["GEM Active Faults<br/>fault distance / style"]
PB2002["Bird PB2002<br/>plate boundaries"]
GNSS["NGL GNSS / MIDAS<br/>strain-rate field"]
WSM["World Stress Map<br/>stress orientation"]
TIDES["Tidal stress (computed)<br/>pygtide + SPOTL/TPXO"]
end
SPINE --> HYG["Catalog hygiene<br/>(Mc, homogenize, decluster)"]
ENRICH --> FEAT["Feature build<br/>(joined on the forecast grid)"]
HYG --> FEAT
FEAT --> MODEL["Conditional model<br/>(ETAS reference + neural challenger)"]
The spine is consumed every day; the enrichers are mostly static or slowly varying and are joined onto the forecast grid at build time. ObsPy's FDSN client is the unifying access layer for all catalog providers (see §3).
The earthquake catalog is the foundation. Short-term forecasting skill scales with how low and
stable the magnitude of completeness Mc is, so the global product is driven by ComCat with
regional networks surfaced through it, and anchored on a long-term homogeneous reference for
b-value and large-event statistics.
ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog: the single most important real-time, no-auth, daily-current global source. It is the spine of the daily inference loop.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| What | Global event catalog (time, lat, lon, depth, magnitude, magType, IDs, products). |
| Access | FDSN event web service; libcomcat (Python) or ObsPy Client("USGS"). |
| Base URL | https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/ |
| Formats |
geojson (preferred for scripting), quakeml, csv, text, kml. |
| License | US Government work, public domain (USGS-authored content). Non-US networks surfaced through ComCat keep their own attribution. |
| Cadence | Real-time / continuously updated. Stability: very high. |
| Daily feasibility |
Excellent. updatedafter returns only events updated since the last successful run — the natural incremental daily delta. |
Operational notes.
-
Hard cap: 20,000 events per request (exceeding it returns HTTP 400). Call
countfirst (cheap) to decide whether to tile by time slice or magnitude band, then stitch and dedupe. -
magTypeis a first-class field — read and KEEP it. Silently mixingmb/Ms/Mwdistorts the Gutenberg–Richter tail; the homogenization step (see Pipeline) depends on it. -
Be polite: serialize requests, prefer
updatedafterdeltas, and back off on HTTP 429/503. The public web app never hits upstream services directly — only the daily job pulls and persists.
# Count first (cheap) to decide whether to tile
curl "https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/count?starttime=2010-01-01&endtime=2026-06-16&minmagnitude=2.5"
# Daily incremental: only events updated since the last successful run
curl "https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?format=geojson&updatedafter=2026-06-15T00:00:00&minmagnitude=1"from libcomcat.search import search
from libcomcat.dataframes import get_summary_data_frame
from datetime import datetime
events = search(starttime=datetime(2010, 1, 1), endtime=datetime(2026, 6, 16),
minmagnitude=2.5)
df = get_summary_data_frame(events) # id, time, lat, lon, depth, magnitude, magtype, ...The International Seismological Centre is the definitive retrospective global bulletin: relocated and re-reviewed, the gold standard for completeness and homogenization. It lags real time by ~24 months, so it is a training-quality source, not a daily one.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| What | Definitive relocated/reviewed global bulletin. The ISC-EHB subset gives the cleanest hypocenters. |
| Access | Catalogue web service http://www.isc.ac.uk/cgi-bin/web-db-run (`out_format=CATCSV |
| License | Open for research with attribution (check per-product terms). |
| Cadence | ~24-month lag. Stability: very high. |
| Daily feasibility | Not a daily source. Use the REVIEWED DB for training quality; ISC throttles large pulls. |
The Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue: the catalog to use for long-term b-value, large-event recurrence, and as the Mw-homogenization anchor in the catalog hygiene step.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| What | 1904–2021, M ≥ 5.5 globally (continental events down to M 5.0), Mw-homogenized, relocated. |
| Version / DOI |
v12.1 (2025-11-27). DOI 10.31905/d808b825. |
| Access | CSV (main + supplementary) + KMZ from https://www.isc.ac.uk/iscgem/ → download.php (also via GEM). |
| License | CC-BY-SA 3.0 (Unported) — © International Seismological Centre & GEM Foundation. |
| Cadence | Versioned (annual-ish), DOI'd. Stability: very high. |
| Daily feasibility | Periodic refresh, not daily. |
Share-alike obligation. CC-BY-SA 3.0 share-alike means any redistributed derivative catalog must carry CC-BY-SA + attribution. Internal training is unaffected; if the product ships a processed ISC-GEM-derived catalog, the license and provenance are preserved. See §6 Attribution.
Centroid moment tensors for essentially all M ≳ 5 global events since 1976: focal mechanism, Mw, nodal planes, P/T axes. The source of mechanism and stress features, and a Mw anchor alongside ISC-GEM.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| What | Moment tensors (Mw, nodal planes, P/T axes) for ~all M ≳ 5 events since 1976. |
| Access | Download .ndk from https://www.globalcmt.org/CMTfiles.html (full file + monthly files since 2005 + Quick CMT). Parse natively with obspy.read_events(...) (obspy.io.ndk). |
| Format | NDK — ASCII, 5 lines × 80 chars per event. |
| License | Free for research with citation (Dziewonski et al. 1981; Ekström et al. 2012). |
| Cadence | Monthly batch + near-real-time Quick CMT. Stability: high. |
| Daily feasibility | Monthly refresh suffices; Quick CMT for near-real-time mechanism on large events. |
The European-Mediterranean Seismological Centre: best for low-latency real-time and an independent dedup cross-check against ComCat.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| What | Independent real-time feed (Euro-Med + global) + felt reports; cross-check vs ComCat. |
| Access | FDSN-event (https://www.seismicportal.eu/fdsnws/event/1/query?..., json/xml/text, 20k cap); WebSocket push feed; ObsPy Client("EMSC"). |
| License | Open for research with attribution. |
| Cadence | Real-time + WebSocket. Stability: high. |
| Daily feasibility | Excellent as a cross-check; call query?... directly (the bare /fdsnws/event/1/ index 404s). |
Regional networks dramatically beat the global catalog at small magnitudes (lower, more stable
Mc). For a global product they are surfaced through the same FDSN layer and used as
higher-resolution context where available; for any single country view they sharpen Mc. Examples
with their attribution / redistribution status:
| Region | Network | Access | License / flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chile | CSN (net C/C1) |
EarthScope/IRIS FDSN or ISC; GNSS at gps.csn.uchile.cl
|
Public use with mandatory CSN attribution (since 2019-06) |
| California | SCEDC (CI), NCEDC (BK/NC) |
Client("SCEDC")/Client("NCEDC"); AWS open-data s3://scedc-pds (--no-sign-request) |
Open + attribution; AWS Open Data terms |
| New Zealand | GeoNet |
https://service.geonet.org.nz/fdsnws/...; Client("GEONET")
|
CC-BY 3.0 NZ — attribute "Earth Sciences New Zealand" |
| Italy | INGV ISIDe (IV) |
http://webservices.ingv.it/fdsnws/event/1/query; Client("INGV")
|
CC-BY (verify version on the dataset page) |
Networks that are registration- and agreement-gated and not freely redistributable are used for internal training quality only, never shipped in the public product or web app.
obspy.clients.fdsn.Client hits every FDSN provider with one API. Built-in short names include
USGS, ISC, EARTHSCOPE, GEONET, INGV, EMSC, SCEDC, NCEDC (IRIS/IRISDMC redirect to
EARTHSCOPE). Operational rules:
-
get_events()has no bulk analogue → loop time windows yourself and respect each provider's 20,000-event cap. Pattern:count→ if > 20k, halve the window recursively → concatenate → dedupe by event id. - Wrap every call in retry/backoff: HTTP 204 (no data), 400 (bad request), 413 (too large → "tile smaller"), 429/503 (slow down).
from obspy.clients.fdsn import Client
from obspy import UTCDateTime
cli = Client("USGS") # or "ISC", "EARTHSCOPE", "GEONET", "INGV", "EMSC", "SCEDC", "NCEDC"
cat = cli.get_events(starttime=UTCDateTime("2024-01-01"), endtime=UTCDateTime("2024-12-31"),
minmagnitude=2.5, orderby="time-asc")These are geophysical-context covariates joined as static or slowly varying spatial fields onto the forecast grid. They are ranked by expected lift for a conditional short-term forecast (the ranking is inferred, not measured — each enricher's marginal information gain over a catalog-only baseline is quantified on held-out data before it is committed). None substitutes for the catalog.
Depth-to-slab, dip, strike, thickness, and interface distance for every subduction zone. This is what separates interface, intraslab, and crustal seismicity — very different physics and rates — and is essential for the global product's tectonic-regime conditioning (see Technical Architecture).
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| What | Per-zone depth/strike/dip/thickness/uncertainty grids at 0.05° × 0.05°. |
| Access | USGS ScienceBase item 5aa1b00ee4b0b1c392e86467; code at github.com/usgs/slab2; NetCDF .grd. |
| License | USGS public domain. |
| Cadence | Static (versioned). Size: ~100s MB. Daily feasibility: loaded once. |
| Reference | Hayes et al. (2018), Science 362, 58–61. DOI 10.1126/science.aat4723. |
Tectonic-setting features: distance-to-nearest-active-fault, fault style, distance-to-plate-boundary, boundary type (subduction / transform / ridge), plate-pair relative velocity.
| Source | What | Access | License | Reference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEM Active Faults | Homogenized global active-fault database (GeoJSON/GPKG/KML/SHP) | github.com/GEMScienceTools/gem-global-active-faults |
CC-BY-SA 4.0 (verify repo LICENSE) | GEM Science Tools |
| Bird PB2002 | 52 plates (14 large + 38 small); plate-boundary geometry + type |
peterbird.name/publications/2003_pb2002/ (ASCII) |
Open for research | Bird (2003), G-cubed 4(3), 1027. DOI 10.1029/2001GC000252
|
Both are static/versioned, small-to-moderate, loaded once.
The Nevada Geodetic Laboratory processes >13,000 global GNSS stations with GipsyX. Interpolating station velocities yields a strain-rate field (dilatation, max shear, second invariant) that correlates with long-term seismicity rate — primarily a background covariate.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| What | Daily E/N/U time series (.tenv3) + robust MIDAS velocities (midas.IGS14.txt). |
| Access |
geodesy.unr.edu; wget/curl scriptable. |
| License | Open with attribution (NGL; Blewitt et al. 2016, MIDAS estimator, DOI 10.1002/2015JB012552). |
| Cadence | Daily–weekly. Size: GBs (per-station text). Daily feasibility: good (daily-updated, scriptable). |
wget http://geodesy.unr.edu/velocities/midas.IGS14.txt
wget http://geodesy.unr.edu/gps_timeseries/tenv3/IGS14/<STATION>.tenv3A ready-made alternative is the GEM/Kreemer GSRM global strain-rate model — a finished strain grid that is often easier than interpolating NGL stations directly.
Crustal stress orientation and faulting regime. Derived from focal mechanisms (GCMT and regional moment tensors) via stress inversion, plus the World Stress Map compilation. Yields rake / faulting style, P/T-axis orientation, and Coulomb stress-transfer (ΔCFS) triggering features — physically motivated but second-tier effort. Open with attribution; small; event-driven.
Tidal stress is computed, not downloaded — see the dedicated §5 Tidal triggering section below. It is a regularized covariate with an honestly small, regime-dependent effect.
| Enricher | Why deferred |
|---|---|
| InSAR (COMET LiCSAR) | Heaviest enricher (TB rasters, atmospheric noise, frame-by-frame coverage); the deformation → short-term-probability link is weak and research-grade. Not in the daily loop; budget separate TB-scale storage out of git if added later. |
| Heat flow (World Heat Flow DB) | Sparse, static; at best a slow background covariate for crustal regions. Lowest priority. |
Tides are a physically-motivated, regularized covariate with an honestly small effect — never a standalone predictor. This section states the physics, the effect sizes by regime, and the role of the feature in the model. It is the most over-claimed phenomenon in popular discourse and the most disciplined to handle in an honest forecaster.
Tidal stress on a fault has two distinct contributions that must be computed separately and summed:
- Solid-Earth (body) tides — the Moon and Sun deform the whole solid Earth, producing a strain/stress field throughout the lithosphere. Dominant constituents: semidiurnal M2 (12.421 h), S2 (12.000 h); diurnal O1 (25.819 h), K1 (23.934 h); and the long-period fortnightly Mf (~13.66–14.77 d) and monthly Mm.
-
Ocean tidal loading (OTL) — the redistributed weight of ocean water flexes the seabed and
adjacent crust. Near continental margins and on the ocean floor this can dominate the body
tide. A 2 m tidal column imposes a vertical seafloor load of order
$\rho_w g h \approx 1025 \times 9.81 \times 2 \approx 2.0\times10^{4}$ Pa ≈ 20 kPa, attenuating inland and with depth. This is why coastal/subduction thrusts show the strongest "tidal" signal — it is really ocean-loading stress, not body tide.
Modeling consequence. A correct tidal-stress series = body tide (tidal-potential catalog + Love numbers) + ocean loading (global ocean-tide model convolved with elastic Green's functions). Doing only the body tide underestimates the signal at coastal/subduction sites by a large factor.
Resolve to the fault — tidal Coulomb failure stress. Form the full tidal stress tensor
with
The decisive numbers:
| Quantity | Order of magnitude |
|---|---|
| Tidal stress on faults | ~0.1–10 kPa (body ~1 kPa; OTL up to ~10–20 kPa at strong-tide coast/seafloor) |
| Earthquake static stress drop | ~0.1–10 MPa (typically 1–10 MPa) |
| Ratio tidal/stress-drop | ~$10^{-3}$ to |
A tide therefore cannot cause an earthquake; at most it can advance or retard the timing of a rupture already within ~$10^{-3}$ of failure — a small minority at any instant. The nucleation- duration argument (Beeler & Lockner 2003) is the decisive one: if nucleation takes longer than a tidal period, the oscillating stress averages out and no phase preference survives. Lab + rate-state extrapolation put crustal nucleation on a major fault at ~1 year ≫ daily tide, so daily tides should not strongly correlate — only the fortnightly Mf band, or settings with very short nucleation, should show a clean correlation. The signal is largest where (a) ocean loading is strong (margins, ridges, seafloor), (b) faults are shallow (less lithostatic clamping), and (c) the dominant tidal component aligns with the failure mode (thrust ↔ vertical ocean load; ridge normal faults ↔ ridge-axis tension).
| Study | Setting | Effect size |
|---|---|---|
Tanaka, Ohtake & Sato (2002), JGR — DOI 10.1029/2001JB001577
|
9,350 global M ≥ 5.5 | No correlation when lumped; reverse (thrust) faults correlate with tidal shear stress |
Cochran, Vidale & Tanaka (2004), Science — DOI 10.1126/science.1103961
|
Shallow ocean-loaded thrusts | Rate varies by factor ~3; ~75% occur during encouraging stress at tides > 2 m; best at |
Métivier et al. (2009), EPSL — DOI 10.1016/j.epsl.2008.12.024
|
442,412 global events | ~0.5–1.0% rate excess at favorable phase, ~99% confidence; larger for smaller/shallower events |
Ide, Yabe & Tanaka (2016), Nat. Geosci. — DOI 10.1038/ngeo2796
|
Tidal stress vs event size | b-value decreases as tidal shear amplitude rises; 2004 Sumatra, 2010 Maule, 2011 Tohoku near peak. Contested (Hough 2018 found no lunar-phase effect for 204 M ≥ 8). |
Scholz, Tan & Albino (2019), Nat. Comms — DOI 10.1038/s41467-019-10605-2
|
Mid-ocean ridges | Phase inverts via axial magma-chamber response; clean rate-state |
The much stronger, least-disputed channel is not regular earthquakes at all — it is
nonvolcanic tremor and slow-slip events, which respond to the same ~kPa stresses far more
strongly (exponential tremor rate, fortnightly Mf modulation used as an in-situ stressmeter;
Rubinstein et al. 2008 DOI 10.1126/science.1150558;
Houston 2015 DOI 10.1038/ngeo2419; van der Elst et al. 2016
DOI 10.1073/pnas.1524316113). Where tremor/SSE catalogs
exist (Cascadia, Nankai, Mexico, parts of Chile/Hikurangi), the slow-earthquake channel is kept
separate from the fast-earthquake channel in the model.
The physically correct shape for the covariate is exponential, not linear (Dieterich 1994; Scholz et al. 2019):
so the tidal channel enters the conditional intensity as a regularized multiplier:
where
| Tool | Component |
|---|---|
pygtide (github.com/hydrogeoscience/pygtide, wraps ETERNA PREDICT 3.4) |
Body-tide strain → stress via the crustal stiffness tensor |
SPOTL (Agnew; nloadf/hartid) |
Ocean tidal loading via mass-loading Green's functions |
| TPXO (+ GOT/FES alternatives) | Global ocean-tide model used as the OTL load |
Engineered features:
Validation gate (mandatory before the feature touches any public number). Reproduce a published tidal time series for a known site (e.g. Cascadia / Axial Seamount), confirm sign conventions (tension- vs compression-positive) and the Green's-function reference frame (CE vs CM) match across pygtide and SPOTL, then require positive prospective CSEP information gain (with-vs-without, declustered) — never claim improvement from in-sample Schuster p-values. License: pygtide / SPOTL are open tools; TPXO has its own academic-use terms (recorded). At coastal/subduction margins, ocean loading dominates — skipping it is the single biggest modeling error.
-
Most regions:
$\beta \to \approx 0$ , negligible skill gain, possibly a tiny calibration improvement at the favorable phase — reported honestly, never buried. - Shallow ocean-loaded thrust / ridge regions: measurable but small (~few %) improvement, useful mostly for calibration, not sharpness.
- Regions with tremor/SSE: the covariate can meaningfully sharpen the slow-slip forecast, which indirectly informs megathrust stress state.
The product credits page must display every required attribution; these are tracked so the credits notice is not forgotten.
| Source | Obligation |
|---|---|
| USGS / ANSS ComCat | Public domain (US Government work); credit USGS/ANSS. |
| ISC-GEM v12.1 | CC-BY-SA 3.0 — share-alike: a redistributed derived catalog keeps CC-BY-SA + provenance. |
| ISC Bulletin / ISC-EHB | Open for research with attribution. |
| GCMT | Free for research with citation (Dziewonski 1981; Ekström 2012). |
| EMSC SeismicPortal | Open for research with attribution. |
| CSN (Chile) | Public use with mandatory CSN attribution (since 2019-06). |
| GeoNet (NZ) | CC-BY 3.0 NZ — attribute "Earth Sciences New Zealand." |
| INGV ISIDe | CC-BY (verify exact version on the dataset page). |
| Slab2 / USGS | Public domain; credit USGS. |
| GEM Active Faults | CC-BY-SA 4.0 (verify repo LICENSE). |
| Bird PB2002 | Open for research with citation. |
| NGL GNSS / MIDAS | Open with attribution (NGL; Blewitt et al. 2016). |
| TPXO ocean-tide model | Academic-use terms (recorded). |
These are not redistribution blockers — but the public app must display them. Tokens, restricted-network credentials, and any agreement-gated raw files live only in a private secrets vault and are never in the public repo or web app.
| Source | Cadence | Daily-inference role |
|---|---|---|
| USGS ComCat | Real-time |
Spine — daily updatedafter delta |
| EMSC SeismicPortal | Real-time + WS | Daily cross-check |
| GCMT (Quick CMT) | Monthly + near-RT | Mechanism on large events |
| NGL GNSS / MIDAS | Daily–weekly | Strain-rate covariate (slow) |
| ISC REVIEWED / ISC-EHB | ~24-month lag | Training quality (not daily) |
| ISC-GEM v12.1 | Versioned (annual-ish) | Mw anchor / b-value (periodic refresh) |
| Slab2, GEM faults, Bird PB2002 | Static | Loaded once; tectonic-regime conditioning |
| Tidal stress (computed) | On demand | Regularized covariate (computed per inference) |
Bottom line: ComCat + EMSC give a fully scriptable, no-auth, real-time daily spine; the homogeneous anchors and the geophysical enrichers are periodic or static and are refreshed on a slower cadence. The whole layer is reproducible from manifests (see Pipeline) and feeds the system described in Technical Architecture.
- Bird, P. (2003). An updated digital model of plate boundaries (PB2002). G-cubed 4(3), 1027. DOI
10.1029/2001GC000252. - Blewitt, G., Hammond, W. C., & Kreemer, C. (2016). MIDAS robust trend estimator for GPS station velocities. JGR Solid Earth 121. DOI
10.1002/2015JB012552. - Cochran, E. S., Vidale, J. E., & Tanaka, S. (2004). Earth tides can trigger shallow thrust fault earthquakes. Science 306(5699), 1164–1166. DOI
10.1126/science.1103961. - Di Giacomo, D., Engdahl, E. R., Storchak, D. A., et al. ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue v12.1. DOI
10.31905/d808b825. - Dieterich, J. (1994). A constitutive law for the rate of earthquake production and its application to earthquake clustering. JGR 99(B2), 2601–2618. DOI
10.1029/93JB02581. - Beeler, N. M., & Lockner, D. A. (2003). Why earthquakes correlate weakly with the solid Earth tides. JGR Solid Earth 108(B8), 2391. DOI
10.1029/2001JB001518. - Ekström, G., Nettles, M., & Dziewoński, A. M. (2012). The global CMT project 2004–2010. PEPI 200–201, 1–9. DOI
10.1016/j.pepi.2012.04.002. - Hayes, G. P., et al. (2018). Slab2, a comprehensive subduction zone geometry model. Science 362, 58–61. DOI
10.1126/science.aat4723. - Houston, H. (2015). Low friction and fault weakening revealed by rising sensitivity of tremor to tidal stress. Nat. Geosci. 8, 409–415. DOI
10.1038/ngeo2419. - Ide, S., Yabe, S., & Tanaka, Y. (2016). Earthquake potential revealed by tidal influence on earthquake size–frequency statistics. Nat. Geosci. 9, 834–837. DOI
10.1038/ngeo2796. - Métivier, L., et al. (2009). Evidence of earthquake triggering by the solid earth tides. EPSL 278, 370–375. DOI
10.1016/j.epsl.2008.12.024. - Rubinstein, J. L., et al. (2008). Tidal modulation of nonvolcanic tremor. Science 319, 186–189. DOI
10.1126/science.1150558. - Scholz, C. H., Tan, Y. J., & Albino, F. (2019). The mechanism of tidal triggering of earthquakes at mid-ocean ridges. Nat. Comms 10, 2526. DOI
10.1038/s41467-019-10605-2. - Tanaka, S., Ohtake, M., & Sato, H. (2002). Evidence for tidal triggering of earthquakes. JGR Solid Earth 107(B10), 2211. DOI
10.1029/2001JB001577. - van der Elst, N. J., et al. (2016). Fortnightly modulation of San Andreas tremor and low-frequency earthquakes. PNAS 113(31), 8601–8606. DOI
10.1073/pnas.1524316113.
Service docs: USGS FDSN-event earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/ · ISC web services
isc.ac.uk/iscbulletin/search/webservices/catalogue/ · ObsPy FDSN
docs.obspy.org/packages/obspy.clients.fdsn.html · GeoNet FDSN geonet.org.nz/data/access/FDSN ·
EMSC SeismicPortal seismicportal.eu/webservices.html · Slab2 earthquake.usgs.gov/slab2/ · GEM
faults github.com/GEMScienceTools/gem-global-active-faults.
See also: Pipeline — how this data is cleaned, homogenized, and turned into features · Technical Architecture — how the global field, regime tiling, and daily job consume it.
⚠️ Disclaimer — read this. CAOS_SEISMIC produces probabilistic forecasts, not predictions. It is an independent research and education tool. It is NOT an official earthquake early-warning or civil-protection system, it does NOT predict when, where, or how large an earthquake will be, and it must NOT be used for life-safety, emergency, or evacuation decisions. Every number it publishes is a bounded, calibrated probability conditioned on the present state of seismicity — never an alarm, a countdown, or a "safe" state. A single outcome neither confirms nor refutes a probabilistic forecast.It complements, and does not replace or speak for, official agencies — always follow your national seismological and civil-protection authorities (e.g. USGS, INGV, CSN (Chile, SENAPRED for civil protection), GeoNet, JMA). The software is provided "as is", without warranty of any kind (MIT License); the authors accept no liability for its use. Data are courtesy of their providers (USGS/ANSS, ISC/ISC-GEM, Global CMT, EMSC, CSN, and others) under their respective licenses and attribution terms. See Honest-Limits for the full epistemic context.
CAOS_SEISMIC · seismic.fasl-work.com · source · MIT
Conditional probabilistic seismic forecasting — forecasts, never predictions.
Overview
Methodology & History
Classical models
- Models-Classical · index
- Gutenberg-Richter-Law
- Omori-Utsu-Law
- ETAS-Model
- Reasenberg-Jones-Model
- STEP-Model
- EEPAS-Model
- Smoothed-Seismicity
- Brownian-Passage-Time
- Rate-and-State-and-Coulomb
ML & analytical methods
- Models-ML · index
- Temporal-Point-Processes
- RMTPP
- Neural-Hawkes-Process
- Transformer-Hawkes-Process
- RECAST-and-FERN
- CNN-Spatial-Models
- Graph-and-Recurrent-Networks
- Detection-vs-Forecasting
Models employed
Data
Architecture
Evaluation
Progress
Reference