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History / Evaluation and Tests

Revisions

  • evaluation: add the real results section (back-analysis + multi-model benchmark, live) Real leakage-free numbers from the harness, rendered live on the Back-analysis page: 195-tile ETAS on 97k events; global field vs null +0.0835 nats/eq, high-low bias gap +0.0184; the multi-model benchmark (ETAS best, naive ensemble underperforms ETAS) with the honest finding + links to the experiment register and the cited evidence base. Negative/zero results kept.

    @fsantibanezleal fsantibanezleal committed Jun 18, 2026
  • wiki: initial technical record + persistent disclaimer footer 13 pages mapping the deep research: Home, _Sidebar, Glossary, Methodology-History, Honest-Limits, Models-Classical, Models-ML, Models-Employed, Data-Sources, Technical-Architecture, Pipeline, Evaluation-and-Tests, Changelog-and-Progress. _Footer.md puts the forecast-not-prediction / not-for-life-safety disclaimer at the foot of every page. Public-safe (leak-scanned). Next: restructure into per-topic sub-pages for depth + add the Data (sources + features) section.

    @fsantibanezleal fsantibanezleal committed Jun 17, 2026