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Welcome to the CAOS_SEISMIC wiki!
⚠️ Disclaimer — read this. CAOS_SEISMIC produces probabilistic forecasts, not predictions. It is an independent research and education tool. It is NOT an official earthquake early-warning or civil-protection system, it does NOT predict when, where, or how large an earthquake will be, and it must NOT be used for life-safety, emergency, or evacuation decisions. Every number it publishes is a bounded, calibrated probability conditioned on the present state of seismicity — never an alarm, a countdown, or a "safe" state. A single outcome neither confirms nor refutes a probabilistic forecast.It complements, and does not replace or speak for, official agencies — always follow your national seismological and civil-protection authorities (e.g. USGS, INGV, CSN (Chile, SENAPRED for civil protection), GeoNet, JMA). The software is provided "as is", without warranty of any kind (MIT License); the authors accept no liability for its use. Data are courtesy of their providers (USGS/ANSS, ISC/ISC-GEM, Global CMT, EMSC, CSN, and others) under their respective licenses and attribution terms. See Honest-Limits for the full epistemic context.
CAOS_SEISMIC · seismic.fasl-work.com · source · MIT
Conditional probabilistic seismic forecasting — forecasts, never predictions.
Overview
Methodology & History
Classical models
- Models-Classical · index
- Gutenberg-Richter-Law
- Omori-Utsu-Law
- ETAS-Model
- Reasenberg-Jones-Model
- STEP-Model
- EEPAS-Model
- Smoothed-Seismicity
- Brownian-Passage-Time
- Rate-and-State-and-Coulomb
ML & analytical methods
- Models-ML · index
- Temporal-Point-Processes
- RMTPP
- Neural-Hawkes-Process
- Transformer-Hawkes-Process
- RECAST-and-FERN
- CNN-Spatial-Models
- Graph-and-Recurrent-Networks
- Detection-vs-Forecasting
Models employed
Data
Architecture
Evaluation
Progress
Reference