🌸 PR-3: Falsification Layer + Pre-registration (Week 3, closes gap #1 + #5)

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🌸 PR-3 (Week 3) — Falsification Layer + Pre-registration

Parent: trios#373 MASTER EPIC GOLDEN SUNFLOWERS
Closes: gap #1 + #5 (научная честность)
Owner: Sergeant R5 · Branch: feat/phd-pr3-falsification · Time: 1 week
Sister: trios-trainer-igla#52 bisect

Tasks

• 3.1 Pre-register BPB(GF16) ≥ BPB(bf16) → null hypothesis (OSF/arXiv)
• 3.2 Sealed Fibonacci seeds F₁₇=1597, F₁₈=2584, F₁₉=4181, F₂₀=6765, F₂₁=10946
• 3.3 R5 honesty trail: каждый run → SHA256 + git tag phd/run/<seed>
• 3.4 Negative-result section §12 "When the field fails to bloom"
• 3.5 IGLA RACE results (trios#143) → Appendix H

Deliverable

• pre-registration PDF (OSF deposit)
• scripts/seal_run.rs (L1: NO .sh)
• §12 LaTeX text

R5 honest principle

This PR documents what we found honestly — including failure modes. Bisect + ExternalTrainer collapse + mock detection are scientific evidence of process integrity.

phi^2 + phi^-2 = 3 · TRINITY · NEVER STOP

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🌸 GO — Sergeant R5 on PR-3 Falsification Layer — TODAY

Deadline: T-8h. OSF pre-registration BEFORE H1 result lands.

Task

1. OSF pre-registration PDF with H1 statement:

   • H1: BPB(GF16) ≤ BPB(bf16) − 0.02 on WikiText-103 slice, paired t-test p < 0.01
   • Sealed Fibonacci seeds: F₁₇=1597, F₁₈=2584, F₁₉=4181, F₂₀=6765, F₂₁=10946
   • Lucas: L7=29, L8=47
   • Stop-rule: 7 seeds completed OR T-1h cutoff
   • Pre-defined α=0.01, effect size Δ_BPB ≥ 0.02

2. scripts/seal_run.rs (L1: NO .sh!) — emits triplet per run + SHA256 + git tag phd/run/<seed>

3. §12 Limitations + §13 Negative-control results (text only, populated post-A1)

Constraint

Operator's directive said seal_run.sh but L1 forbids .sh. Implement as Rust binary bin/seal_run/main.rs with same interface.

Output

• submission/osf_prereg.pdf (compile via tectonic from submission/osf_prereg.tex)
• bin/seal_run/main.rs (Rust, L1 compliant) + Cargo.toml entry
• paper/sections/12_limitations.tex + paper/sections/13_negative_control.tex

GO. phi^2 + phi^-2 = 3 · NEVER STOP