[experiments] Daily Experiment Report — 2026-10-16

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🧪 Daily Experiment Report — 2026-10-16

53 experiments across 50 workflows analysed. 24 are 🟢 READY on sample size, but none has a PROMOTE or REJECT decision: no experiment has decision-quality outcome evidence yet.

⚡ Quick Stats

Metric	Value
Active experiments	53
Ready (sample gate)	24
Decisions with sufficient evidence	0
Core decisions	✅ PROMOTE: 0 · 🟡 EXTEND: 40 · ❌ REJECT: 0 · ⚪ INCONCLUSIVE: 13
Interaction safety holds	0 (only smokecopilot* has 2 experiments; no sparse-cell hold needed since no PROMOTE)

Reason codes

Reason code	Count
insufficient_observations	28
insufficient_samples	9
unsupported_multi_variant	13
guardrail_unsupported	3 (cicoach, dailyfact, dailysecurityredteam)

📈 Experiments by core decision

🟢 READY · EXTEND insufficient_observations (assignments exist, no outcome observations for the metric): agentperformanceanalyzer/prompt_compression (80/67), breakingchangechecker/tone_variant (34/30), dailyagentrxtraceoptimizer/sub_agent_strategy (50/49), dailyastrostylelitemarkdownspellcheck/prompt_style (84/80), dailycommunityattribution/prompt_style (76/75), dailynews/prompt_style (67/59), gpclean/tool_verbosity (68/76), issuearborist/prompt_style (55/48), smokeantigravity/sub_agent_strategy (99/109), smokecopilot/caveman (195/196), smokecopilot/subagent_model (185/186), smokecopilotaoaiapikey/caveman (101/102), smokecopilotaoaiapikey/subagent_model (101/102), smokecopilotaoaientra/caveman (88/88), smokecopilotaoaientra/subagent_model (88/88), smokegemini/sub_agent_strategy (137/150), smokepi/sub_agent_decomposition (42/34), testqualitysentinel/model_size (67/71), typist/tone_style (57/46).

🟢 READY · EXTEND guardrail_unsupported: cicoach/prompt_style (47/63), dailyfact/reasoning_depth (46/64, min 30), dailysecurityredteam/reasoning_depth (89/67, min 30).

🟡 COLLECTING · EXTEND insufficient_samples: architectureguardian (17/21), auditworkflows/audit_decomposition (58/43 of 264), blogauditor (5/9), copilotprnlpanalysis (1/0 of 30), dailyarchitecturediagram (13/8), dailycachestrategyanalyzer (22/18), dataflowprdiscussiondataset (8/11), dependabotcampaign (6/6), weeklyblogpostwriter (7/11).

🟡 COLLECTING · EXTEND insufficient_observations (no variant counts recorded yet): agentpersonaexplorer, awfailureinvestigator, dailyfunctionnamer, dailyrenderingscriptsverifier, dailysafeoutputoptimizer, gofan, prsouschef, smokeproject, smoketemporaryid.

⚪ INCONCLUSIVE unsupported_multi_variant (3+ variants, core analysis supports only 2): copilotagentanalysis/output_format, dailycavemanoptimizer/model_size, dailycodemetrics/output_format, dailycompilerquality/output_format (READY), dailydochealer/model_size, dailydocupdater/model_size, dailyissuesreport/output_format, dailysemgrepscan/semgrep_output_format, dailysubagentoptimizer/timeout_setting, deepreport/output_format (READY), dependabotgochecker/prompt_style, plan/reasoning_depth, smokecopilotsubagents/sub_agent_strategy.

Per-variant success-rate/duration charts were not generated: variant observations for run outcomes are not available in the branch state, and no experiment reached a decision that charts would change.

🎯 Recommendations

All experiments: EXTEND (or INCONCLUSIVE where noted). No promotions, rejections, or tracking-issue comments are warranted today.

🔁 Self-Tuning Continuation Plan

Top 3 experiment actions

1. Record the primary metric observation per run for the 19 READY insufficient_observations experiments (largest: smokecopilot*, smokegemini) so core analysis can decide.
2. Define supported guardrail metrics for cicoach, dailyfact, dailysecurityredteam (guardrail_unsupported).
3. Reduce multi-variant experiments (output_format with ste, model_size with extra aliases like agent/small-agent) to two arms, or add multi-variant support in core analysis.

Top 3 eval actions

1. Tighten evals for output_format workflows (deepreport, dailycompilerquality, dailycodemetrics) so verbosity/readability scores feed the metric.
2. Add grader outputs for model_size workflows (testqualitysentinel, dailydochealer, dailydocupdater) mapping to their prompts.
3. Add success/quality graders for prompt_style workflows (dailynews, issuearborist, dailycommunityattribution).

Decision-pipeline gaps

• 28 insufficient_observations and 3 guardrail_unsupported results: observation pipeline not wired.
• 13 unsupported_multi_variant: normalize multi-arm comparison in core.
• analyze output contains null variants for 9 workflows with no recorded counts; auditworkflows min_samples=264 looks misconfigured.
• Factorial interaction diagnostics (smokecopilot* caveman × subagent_model) should become a normalized core signal.

Descriptive window: last 30 runs per workflow · Run: 38870078406

Generated by 🧪 daily-experiment-report · copilot · auto · 28.2 AIC · ⌖ 0.855 AIC · ⊞ 17K · ◷

• expires on Oct 18, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC-08:00

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This discussion has been marked as outdated by daily-experiment-report.

A newer discussion is available at Discussion #69653.