[experiments] Daily Experiment Report — 2026-10-18

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🧪 Daily Experiment Report — 2026-10-18

53 experiments across 50 workflows analysed. 0 PROMOTE, 0 REJECT, 43 EXTEND, 10 INCONCLUSIVE. No experiment has decision-quality evidence yet.

⚡ Quick Stats

Metric	Value
Active experiments	53
🟢 READY	25
Decisions with sufficient evidence	0
Core decisions	✅ PROMOTE: 0 · 🟡 EXTEND: 43 · ❌ REJECT: 0 · ⚪ INCONCLUSIVE: 10
Interaction safety holds	0 (pairs: smokecopilot, smokecopilotaoaiapikey, smokecopilotaoaientra have caveman×subagent_model, balanced and well sampled)

📊 Core decisions by reason code

Reason code	Count	Experiments
guardrail_unsupported	16	agentperformanceanalyzer, cicoach, dailyagentrxtraceoptimizer, dailyastrostylelitemarkdownspellcheck, dailydochealer, dailydocupdater, dailyfact, dailynews, dailysecurityredteam, gpclean, issuearborist, smokegemini, testqualitysentinel, typist (+ 2 more READY)
insufficient_observations	15	dailycommunityattribution, smokeantigravity, smokecopilot (×2), smokecopilotaoaiapikey (×2), smokecopilotaoaientra (×2), smokepi, agentpersonaexplorer, awfailureinvestigator, dailyfunctionnamer, dailysafeoutputoptimizer, prsouschef, smokeproject, smoketemporaryid
insufficient_samples	12	architectureguardian, auditworkflows, blogauditor, breakingchangechecker, copilotprnlpanalysis, dailyarchitecturediagram, dailycachestrategyanalyzer, dailycavemanoptimizer, dailyrenderingscriptsverifier, dataflowprdiscussiondataset, dependabotcampaign, gofan, weeklyblogpostwriter
unsupported_multi_variant (INCONCLUSIVE)	10	copilotagentanalysis, dailycodemetrics, dailycompilerquality, dailyissuesreport, dailysemgrepscan, dailysubagentoptimizer, deepreport, dependabotgochecker, plan, smokecopilotsubagents

📈 Per-experiment summary

Experiment	Workflow	Variants (n)	min_samples	Readiness	Core decision	Reason code
prompt_compression	agentperformanceanalyzer	caveman 81, verbose 68	14	🟢	EXTEND	guardrail_unsupported
sub_agent_strategy	agentpersonaexplorer	–	14	🟡	EXTEND	insufficient_observations
sub_agent_strategy	architectureguardian	single_agent 17, sub_agents 21	20	🟡	EXTEND	insufficient_samples
audit_decomposition	auditworkflows	phased 59, single 44	264	🟡	EXTEND	insufficient_samples
tone_variant	awfailureinvestigator	–	20	🟡	EXTEND	insufficient_observations
prompt_style	blogauditor	concise 5, detailed 9	20	🟡	EXTEND	insufficient_samples
tone_variant	breakingchangechecker	neutral 34, urgent 31	194	🟡	EXTEND	insufficient_samples
prompt_style	cicoach	concise 47, detailed 64	20	🟢	EXTEND	guardrail_unsupported
output_format	copilotagentanalysis	prose 40, ste 4, structured 48	30	🟡	INCONCLUSIVE	unsupported_multi_variant
nlp_prompt_style	copilotprnlpanalysis	concise 0, structured 0	30	🟡	EXTEND	insufficient_samples
sub_agent_strategy	dailyagentrxtraceoptimizer	50 / 49	20	🟢	EXTEND	guardrail_unsupported
detail_level	dailyarchitecturediagram	brief 13, comprehensive 8	10	🟡	EXTEND	insufficient_samples
prompt_style	dailyastrostylelitemarkdownspellcheck	85 / 81	30	🟢	EXTEND	guardrail_unsupported
model_size	dailycachestrategyanalyzer	23 / 19	20	🟡	EXTEND	insufficient_samples
model_size	dailycavemanoptimizer	haiku 79, sonnet 18	20	🟡	EXTEND	insufficient_samples
output_format	dailycodemetrics	54 / 58 / ste 16	20	🟡	INCONCLUSIVE	unsupported_multi_variant
prompt_style	dailycommunityattribution	76 / 77	20	🟢	EXTEND	insufficient_observations
output_format	dailycompilerquality	56 / 66 / ste 22	20	🟢	INCONCLUSIVE	unsupported_multi_variant
model_size	dailydochealer	68 / 22	20	🟢	EXTEND	guardrail_unsupported
model_size	dailydocupdater	55 / 20	20	🟢	EXTEND	guardrail_unsupported
reasoning_depth	dailyfact	47 / 64	30	🟢	EXTEND	guardrail_unsupported
model_size	dailyfunctionnamer	–	20	🟡	EXTEND	insufficient_observations
output_format	dailyissuesreport	67 / 64 / ste 23	30	🟡	INCONCLUSIVE	unsupported_multi_variant
prompt_style	dailynews	67 / 60	30	🟢	EXTEND	guardrail_unsupported
remove_redundant_context_v1	dailyrenderingscriptsverifier	0 / 0	20	🟡	EXTEND	insufficient_samples
log_fetch_strategy	dailysafeoutputoptimizer	–	20	🟡	EXTEND	insufficient_observations
reasoning_depth	dailysecurityredteam	90 / 68	30	🟢	EXTEND	guardrail_unsupported
semgrep_output_format	dailysemgrepscan	28 / 27 / 22	30	🟡	INCONCLUSIVE	unsupported_multi_variant
timeout_setting	dailysubagentoptimizer	2 / 1 / 1	20	🟡	INCONCLUSIVE	unsupported_multi_variant
caveman_mode	dataflowprdiscussiondataset	8 / 11	10	🟡	EXTEND	insufficient_samples
output_format	deepreport	71 / 91 / 71 / ste 53	15	🟢	INCONCLUSIVE	unsupported_multi_variant
summary_detail	dependabotcampaign	6 / 6	20	🟡	EXTEND	insufficient_samples
prompt_style	dependabotgochecker	22 / 19 / 20	30	🟡	INCONCLUSIVE	unsupported_multi_variant
prompt_tightening_v1	gofan	0 / 0	20	🟡	EXTEND	insufficient_samples
tool_verbosity	gpclean	69 / 77	30	🟢	EXTEND	guardrail_unsupported
prompt_style	issuearborist	57 / 48	30	🟢	EXTEND	guardrail_unsupported
reasoning_depth	plan	4 / 2 / 1	137	🟡	INCONCLUSIVE	unsupported_multi_variant
remove_redundant_context_v1	prsouschef	–	20	🟡	EXTEND	insufficient_observations
sub_agent_strategy	smokeantigravity	99 / 109	20	🟢	EXTEND	insufficient_observations
caveman, subagent_model	smokecopilot, smokecopilotaoaiapikey, smokecopilotaoaientra	all arms ≥ 89	20	🟢	EXTEND	insufficient_observations
sub_agent_strategy	smokecopilotsubagents	19 / 18 / 22	30	🟡	INCONCLUSIVE	unsupported_multi_variant
sub_agent_strategy	smokegemini	138 / 152	30	🟢	EXTEND	guardrail_unsupported
sub_agent_decomposition	smokepi	42 / 34	20	🟢	EXTEND	insufficient_observations
prompt_style_test	smokeproject	–	20	🟡	EXTEND	insufficient_observations
sub_agent_strategy	smoketemporaryid	–	20	🟡	EXTEND	insufficient_observations
model_size	testqualitysentinel	haiku 91, sonnet 105	70	🟢	EXTEND	guardrail_unsupported
tone_style	typist	58 / 46	10	🟢	EXTEND	guardrail_unsupported
prefetch_strategy	weeklyblogpostwriter	eager 7, lazy 11	30→10	🟡	EXTEND	insufficient_samples

Outcome charts (success rate / duration CIs) were not generated this run: per-run outcome correlation was out of scope for the available read-only data. No tracking issues (issue: field) were notified; no labels applied.

🔁 Self-Tuning Continuation Plan

Top experiment actions

1. Resolve guardrail_unsupported (~16 READY experiments, e.g. cicoach, testqualitysentinel, issuearborist): wire native guardrail metrics into the observations pipeline so decisions can unblock.
2. Resolve insufficient_observations on smoke experiments (smokecopilot*, smokepi, smokeantigravity) and dailycommunityattribution: runs are plentiful but no metric observations are recorded.
3. Add multi-variant (K≥3) support in core analysis; 10 experiments incl. all ste output_format ones are stuck INCONCLUSIVE (unsupported_multi_variant). Also check dailysubagentoptimizer and plan, which have very few runs.

Top eval actions

1. Tighten output-quality evals for output_format workflows (deepreport, dailycompilerquality, dailycodemetrics) so verbosity/readability observations exist for ste arms.
2. Add success-rate/empty-output graders for prompt_style workflows (cicoach, dailynews, dailyastrostylelitemarkdownspellcheck, issuearborist).
3. Add eval graders for model_size workflows (dailydochealer, dailydocupdater, testqualitysentinel) to feed quality guardrails.

Decision-pipeline gaps

• Native metrics behind guardrail_unsupported / insufficient_observations need to be emitted per run.
• Promote K1×K2 interaction diagnostics (smokecopilot* caveman×subagent_model) to a normalized core signal.
• Several experiments have 0 assigned counts with run records (copilotprnlpanalysis, gofan, dailyrenderingscriptsverifier): check variant count vs runs consistency.

Run: 39109202073

Generated by 🧪 daily-experiment-report · copilot · auto · 26.5 AIC · ⌖ 0.875 AIC · ⊞ 17K · ◷

• expires on Oct 20, 2026, 11:56 PM UTC-08:00

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