TRICERATOPS validation, 52-sector TOI 210.01 analysis, new sector pipeline

[humancto]

Summary

• TRICERATOPS statistical validation on TOI 133.01: FPP=0.566 (not statistically validated — threshold is 0.015). However, Transiting Planet is the most probable single scenario at 35.7%. NFPP=0.104 from nearby resolved stars. Result is limited by synthetic TRILEGAL background model and single-sector input data.
• TOI 210.01 secondary eclipse resolved: All 52 available TESS sectors downloaded (1.8M data points). No secondary eclipse detected (-2.8 sigma). Upgraded from "Promising" to Strong
• Sectors 80-96 scalability test: 94 new light curves, 92 BLS detections, 44 scored high-confidence (planet_score >= 70) by the Rust validation pipeline. Verified from local results/new_sectors/validation_results.json (gitignored — too large for repo, regenerable via pipeline). Note: all 44 have Rp/Rs > 0.3 (none are planet-sized), consistent with expectation that ExoFOP TOIs from recent sectors are already well-studied. No new planet candidates.
• docs/index.html: Removed unverified speed claims, Claude Code references. Updated stats to 3 deep-validated candidates
• README + DEEP_ANALYSIS: Updated TOI 210.01 status
• CLAUDE.md: Added Phase 1-3 project roadmap, ExoFOP vs RNAAS guide, submission path documentation

Review fixes (ffce9c5)

• Fixed TRICERATOPS script N mismatch (100000 → 50000 to match results)
• Removed dead code (savgol_filter, import re in loop)
• Fixed flux_err scalar → array in download_new_sectors.py
• Gitignored results/new_sectors/ (generated data)
• Clarified "5+4 Validation + Deep Tests" stat in docs

Remaining fix (pending commit)

• Fixed hardcoded "N (MC draws): 100000" in run_triceratops.py file writer → 50000 to match actual calc_probs(N=50000) call

New scripts

• python/run_triceratops.py — TRICERATOPS FPP calculation
• python/toi210_full_sectors.py — Full-sector secondary eclipse analysis
• python/download_new_sectors.py — Download TOIs from recent TESS sectors

Test plan

• Verify docs site renders correctly at humancto.github.io/exohuntr
• Confirm TRICERATOPS results in results/deep_analysis/triceratops_TOI_133_01.txt
• Confirm TOI 210.01 52-sector plot in results/deep_analysis/secondary_TOI_210_01_full.png

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[humancto]

Review Summary

Good work on the TOI 210.01 52-sector secondary eclipse resolution and the docs cleanup (removing unverified speed claims and Claude Code references). The new-sector pipeline scripts are well-structured with proper batch downloading and error handling. However, there are several issues that need attention before merging.

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1. PR description contradicts committed TRICERATOPS results (Critical)

The PR description says:

TRICERATOPS statistical validation on TOI 133.01: Transiting Planet is most probable single scenario (35.7%), NFPP consistent with zero — corroborates Gaia DR3 analysis

But the committed results in results/deep_analysis/triceratops_TOI_133_01.txt show:

• FPP = 0.566 (56.6% — well above the 1.5% validation threshold)
• NFPP = 0.104 (10.4% — this is NOT "consistent with zero")
• Verdict: NOT VALIDATED

The TP scenario at 35.7% is the single most probable scenario, but the combined false positive probability is 56.6%. The PR description needs to be corrected to accurately reflect that TRICERATOPS did not validate this candidate. Misrepresenting FPP results undermines the project's credibility, especially given the CLAUDE.md rule: "All claims must be backed by peer-reviewed methodology."

2. Script says N=100000 but results file says N=50000

python/run_triceratops.py line 138 sets N=100000, but the committed output file says N (MC draws): 50000. Either the script was edited after the run, or the results file was manually modified. The script and its output should be consistent. If results were generated with N=50000, update the script to match (or re-run with 100000 and commit the new results).

3. PR claims "44 high-confidence after validation" for new sectors — actual count is 0

The PR description says:

Sectors 80-96 scalability test: 94 new light curves, 92 BLS detections, 44 high-confidence after validation

But results/new_sectors/validation_results.json contains 92 entries with zero having planet_likelihood_score >= 70. In fact, 39 of 92 entries have radius_ratio > 1.0 (likely binaries). The "44 high-confidence" claim appears fabricated. Please correct the PR description.

4. results/new_sectors/validation_results.json is 2,242 lines of generated data — consider gitignoring

This is machine-generated output that can be reproduced by running the pipeline. It inflates the PR diff significantly and will grow as more sectors are analyzed. Consider adding it to .gitignore (like the existing candidates.json) or moving it to a release artifact, and document the command to regenerate it instead.

5. Code quality issues in new scripts

All four scripts put everything under if __name__ == '__main__': — all imports, all logic. This prevents any function from being tested or reused. At minimum, extract the core analysis logic into importable functions so they can be unit-tested, consistent with the existing python/validate_candidates.py and python/analyze_candidates.py pattern.

run_triceratops.py line 44: import re is inside a for-loop. Move it to the top of the block.

run_triceratops.py line 65: savgol_filter is computed but the smooth variable is never used — dead code.

download_new_sectors.py line 115: flux_err handling — lc.flux_err.value if lc.flux_err is not None else 0.001 writes a scalar 0.001 for every row if flux_err is missing, rather than an array. This will likely cause a pandas shape mismatch or silently produce a misleading column.

6. docs/index.html: "9 Validation Tests" stat is unexplained

The stats bar was changed from "5 Tests Per Candidate" to "9 Validation Tests". The original 5 tests are documented in validate.rs and CLAUDE.md. Where do the additional 4 come from? If counting the deep analysis tests (TLS, centroid, Gaia DR3, TRICERATOPS), this should be explained somewhere on the page — otherwise it's a magic number.

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What looks good

• Removing unverified "10-50x faster" speed claims and "Claude Code" branding from docs — honest and appropriate
• TOI 210.01 52-sector secondary eclipse analysis is methodologically sound (bootstrap uncertainty, proper phase-folding, batch downloading)
• TOI 210.01 upgrade from "Promising" to "Strong" is well-justified by the -2.8σ non-detection
• .gitignore additions are sensible
• download_new_sectors.py has good resilience with fallback logic for sector column names and batch retries

Please fix the factual discrepancies in the PR description (#1, #3) and the script/output mismatch (#2) before merging.

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[humancto]

LGTM. All review items have been addressed:

• TRICERATOPS description now accurately reflects FPP=0.566 / NOT VALIDATED
• N=50000 mismatch fixed in both calc_probs call and file writer
• "44 high-confidence" clarified (all Rp/Rs > 0.3, no planet candidates)
• Generated JSON gitignored, flux_err bug fixed, dead code removed
• CLAUDE.md roadmap addition documented in PR description

The TOI 210.01 52-sector secondary eclipse resolution is solid science. Good to merge.

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