Thought excercise in modelling Covid-19 . You can experiment with it at https://jsfiddle.net/jaundice/d4wp6u9k/9/ (This is my original model)
I'm not a medical professional, but I thought it would be interesting to model interactions between members of a population through home, work, social and other activities over time and how a virus might be transmitted through the population in different senarios.
I am now trying to enhance the first version with changes over time with policy and behaviour and impact on / from health service
(or fork and submit a PR if you know what that is)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PWzbArPgo-o
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R0 ~3+
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SI 5-7.5
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probably 80% of infections go unregistered
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national employment breakdown by industry is in /usefuldata/emp13feb2020.xls from https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/employmentbyindustryemp13
530000 frontline NHS staff - sky news
from https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/uk-demographics/
- UK population 67886011
- 82.9 % urban
From skynews interview with ICU doctor
- 10% hospitalised
- 4% ICU
- 2% Dead
Age-group(years), % symptomatic cases requiring hospitalisation, % hospitalised cases requiring critical care, Infection Fatality Ratio 0 to 9 0.1% 5.0% 0.002% 10 to 19 0.3% 5.0% 0.006% 20 to 29 1.2% 5.0% 0.03% 30 to 39 3.2% 5.0% 0.08% 40 to 49 4.9% 6.3% 0.15% 50 to 59 10.2% 12.2% 0.60% 60 to 69 16.6% 27.4% 2.2% 70 to 79 24.3% 43.2% 5.1% 80+ 27.3% 70.9% 9.3%
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50% registered cases > 65yo
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young children mostly asymptomatic
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median 5.1 day incubation, 97.5% within 11.5 days. max up to 2 weeks https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2762808/incubation-period-coronavirus-disease-2019-covid-19-from-publicly-reported
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virus is most contagious before symptoms show and in the first 7 days of symptoms https://www.sciencenews.org/article/coronavirus-most-contagious-before-during-first-week-symptoms
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/mar/17/the-uk-new-coronavirus-measures-in-numbers
- Heart Disease 7.4m
- Asthma 5.4m / 200K very severe
- Autoimmune disorders 4m
- Diabetes 3.9m
- Cancer 2.9m ? (from data some will have recovered. Still at extra risk?)
https://youtu.be/rdoN_XsHWBI?t=1505
cardio vascular +10.6% diabetes +6.3% pulmanory +7.3% cancer/ immuno suppression +5.6%
from https://youtu.be/tmhsNdW24BM?t=584 / https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/en/2020/03/17/lung-scans-covid-19-thirtysomethings-show-scary-picture/
“We’re not only talking about the older generations. We’re talking about people aged between 30 and 50, who come in here. Frankly speaking lung scans of these patients are scary”.
“They all have the same complaints. They’ve been home for a week, under the weather with flu. The flu is over, for two days they feel fine and then they arrive complaining of a dry cough and shortness of breath. When we measure their oxygen saturation (i.e. the amount of oxygen in their blood, we see particularly low oxygen saturations for their age.”
Front line doctors / nurses / beds / ICU, PPE availability
Medical supplies, food etc
Supermarkets, food, pharmacy
- self isolation
- social distancing
- lockdown
- medic isolation
- virus testing
- antibody testing
- ...
Age Percentage 0-4 6.2 5-9 5.6 10-14 5.8 15-17 3.7 18-24 9.4 25-29 6.8 30-34 6.6 35-39 6.7 40-44 7.3 45-49 7.3 50-54 6.4 55-59 5.7 60-64 6.0 65-69 4.8 70-74 3.9 75-79 3.2 80-84 2.4 85+ 2.2
- population age?
- underlying population health
- population contact
- health service utilization - doctors / beds / professional's health
- health outcome
- policy changes - social distancing, total lockdown, healthcare professional isolation, key worker childcare
- public adherance to policy
- supply chain of critical items?
- changes in contagion as individual disease cases progress