Kairos v2.0.0 - Sharp-Line Edge + Data-Fed Engine

The sophistication upgrade: stop guessing, start measuring.

The shift

v1 estimated goals by judgment then priced from scratch — the inputs were guesses. v2.0 adds the proven retail edge: don't out-predict the market — beat the soft book (SportyBet) against the sharpest one (Pinnacle). Where SportyBet pays more than the sharp de-vigged "true" price, that gap is real value.

New (all pure-stdlib urllib, still zero-dependency)

• engine/edge.py — sharp-line comparison core (reuses market.py de-vig).
• engine/sources/ — data adapters: The Odds API (Pinnacle + many books), Club Elo, Understat xG, Football-Data.co.uk.
• engine/backtest.py — soft-vs-sharp replay on real history → ROI / hit-rate / CLV (prove the edge before paying).
• engine/report.py — new SHARP% column (ODDS% vs SHARP% vs MY%).
• engine/config.py + .env.example — one free key (The Odds API) via gitignored .env.

Data-fed xG/Elo flow through the existing engine (run.py strengths/elo specs) — no math changed. Keyless except The Odds API (free, 500/mo).

Quality

• 64 → 104 tests across 4 suites; all run fully offline on committed sample fixtures.
• CI runs all four on Python 3.10–3.12.

Honest ceiling

Soft-vs-sharp value is real but fragile (limits, line moves, thin margins). v2.0 makes the inputs data-grounded and provable via backtest — a big upgrade over guesses — but profit is never guaranteed.

🤖 Generated with Claude Code