Makes the Monte Carlo / DCF / distribution surface a faithful mirror of the okama engine. 33 → 45 tools.
New
- Custom distribution parameters —
MCSpec.distribution_parameterslets you pin the forecast distribution (norm [mu, sigma],lognorm/t [shape|df, loc, scale]); anynullelement is fitted from history via MLE (e.g. a fixed Student-tdfwith auto loc/scale). - MC distribution diagnostics —
get_distribution_fit(fitted params, Jarque-Bera, Kolmogorov-Smirnov for the chosen + all distributions, backtesting error),get_return_moments(skewness/kurtosis, expanding or rolling),optimize_students_df(best-fit Student-t df vs empirical VaR/CVaR),get_cagr_distribution(simulated CAGR percentiles + probability below a score). - DCF tools —
get_dcf_wealth_index,get_dcf_cash_flow_ts,get_dcf_wealth_with_assets,get_survival_period(period + depletion date),get_initial_investment_values(PV/FV),get_monte_carlo_cash_flow(percentile bands). - Charts —
plot_qq(returns vs fitted distribution) andplot_hist_fit(histogram + fitted PDF). time_series_discounted_valuesflag on thetime_seriescash-flow strategy.
Changed
- All five CashFlow strategies remain available;
discount_rateis now an optional argument on the PV/survival DCF tools. scipyis now a direct dependency.
Upgrade
uvx okama-mcp picks up the new version automatically; pinned installs: pip install -U okama-mcp.