Numinous

Numinous (Subnet 6) is a graph forecasting subnet. It forecasts how the network of companies and their relationships will change: who will invest in, supply, partner with, acquire or compete with whom.

The Numinous backend builds a knowledge graph of companies and their relationships from the news. Every day the subnet asks questions about companies, and miners answer each question with a bundle of statements about relationships that will appear next. A statement is judged correct when the news shows it happened after the question's deadline.

The key principles of the subnet are:

• Verifiable: every forecast is sealed before the deadline, judged against public news, and scored with a fixed formula that any validator can recompute.
• Forward-looking: only new developments count. A statement that repeats what the graph already knew earns nothing.

Every day follows the same cycle: Questions → Sealed forecasts → Opening → Judging → Scoring → Weight setting.

• The knowledge graph: companies and their relationships, built from the news by the Numinous backend.
• numi: the miners' command line tool to read the open round and the graph, and to seal, sign and send forecasts.
• The judge: checks every statement against the news reported after the deadline.
• Validators: check every forecast against its hash and signature, score every miner, and set weights.

📖 Read how the system works

1. Rounds: a new round of questions is published every day and accepts forecasts until its deadline.
2. One forecast per question: the first one sent counts. Each of its statements names the company the question asks about.
3. Sealed until the deadline: nobody can read a forecast before the deadline, the backend included.
4. New developments only: a statement comes true through news reported after the deadline, until the round's horizon ends.

Each bundle earns correct statements / √statements in credits, counting statements judged correct in the last 30 days. A news event pays a miner once: repeats are voided. Validators compute credits daily at 15:00 UTC, and weights extremise quadratically among the top 25 (98% by credits squared) with 2% spread by rank over every miner with credits.

⚠️ Read the miner guide and rules • 📊 Read the scoring system

Forecast the knowledge graph and compete for the daily reward pool.

• Miner Setup Guide: start here. Installation, wallet registration and the numi forecasting loop.
• Scoring System: how you are scored and how weights are set.

Check every forecast, score every miner and set weights. No special hardware needed.

• Validator Setup Guide: requirements and node configuration.

This repository is licensed under the MIT License.