A safety-first prediction-market co-pilot for Polymarket + Robinhood Chain — an analyst that guides execution, not a black-box trader.
PolyRobin is a BankrBot skill (a behavior spec, not executable code). It upgrades BankrBot's decision-making on prediction markets: it builds an independent probability estimate, only surfaces real edges with the math shown, runs every idea through 7 hard safety gates, and then guides execution through the rails BankrBot already has — Polymarket betting, Robinhood Chain tokenized stocks / swaps / bridging, Hyperliquid perps, and Morpho. Every trade requires your explicit confirmation.
- What it is
- How you use it
- 🛡️ Safety Cheat Sheet
- Supported Markets
- Example Flows
- How funds flow through Polymarket
- Install
- Configuration
- What runs where
- Contributing
- Token
- Disclaimer
- License
- ✅ A decision layer — discovery, independent modeling, edge detection, conviction scoring, Kelly sizing, risk gating, and transparent reasoning.
- ✅ An execution guide — hands BankrBot a clear, confirmed instruction and monitors the result.
- ❌ Not an autonomous trader — never bets, bridges, or hedges without your
yes. - ❌ Not a new execution venue or contract — the skill adds judgment on top of
BankrBot's existing integrations (the
$PRcommunity token is separate from the skill's logic).
Robinhood Chain (realistic scope): the split, plainly — funding, bridging, swaps, and tokenized assets are live on Robinhood Chain; prediction execution is still mostly Polymarket today. Robinhood Chain / Meridian Predict prediction markets are discovery + analysis only for now (BankrBot has no native Meridian Predict execution integration yet) — PolyRobin falls back to Polymarket for execution where an equivalent market exists, and says so.
PolyRobin runs on BankrBot, which lives on X (Twitter) — so you place and manage
everything by tagging @bankrbot in a post or reply on X. He reads your request,
runs PolyRobin's analysis, and replies to you on X with the edge, the math, and a
confirmation prompt before any money moves. There's no dashboard and no separate app:
if you can post on X, you can use it.
@bankrbot using the polyrobin skill, put $20 on tonight's fight — size it and show the math
@bankrbot using the polyrobin skill, bet $100 my friend Tony loses $100 today on memes
He replies in-thread with his independent probability, the edge and size math, the 7
gates' status, and a Confirm? — nothing executes until you reply yes on X.
Conservative defaults, all configurable. Gate 5 (confirmation) can't be disabled.
| # | Gate | Default |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daily loss limit | 5% of bankroll → breach trips HALT |
| 2 | Max exposure per market | 10% |
| 3 | Max exposure per category | 25% |
| 4 | Conviction + edge threshold | ≥65/100 AND EV ≥ +4% net |
| 5 | Confirmation required | every material action 🔒 always on |
| 6 | Total deployed cap | 60% |
| 7 | Liquidity / exitability floor | $50k depth · $250k volume |
HALT triggers: extreme volatility · stale/disagreeing oracles · conflicting
data sources · 3 losses in 24h.
Emergency controls: pause (soft freeze) · halt (no new positions) ·
panic (kill-switch: HALT + snapshot + cancel working orders) · resume.
Golden rules: stricter gate wins · no gate bypassed silently · keys never
touch PolyRobin · ambiguous-resolution markets are never recommended.
| Category | Discovery | Execution today |
|---|---|---|
| Politics · Crypto · Sports · Macro · Weather | Polymarket (+ RH Chain where listed) | Polymarket (live) |
| RWAs / tokenized assets | Robinhood Chain | Guided via BankrBot RH-Chain rails |
| Tokenized stock events (Meridian Predict) | Robinhood Chain | Analysis now · Polymarket fallback |
Put $20 on the fight tonight
You: @bankrbot PolyRobin, should I put $20 on <fighter> tonight? size it and show the math
PR: Market found on Polymarket. My est 0.58 vs price 0.52 → edge +6pts, EV ≈ +4.9%.
Conviction 68/100. Suggested $20 (¼-Kelly), within all 7 gates ✅. Confirm?
You: yes
PR: ✅ BankrBot placed $20 YES. Rationale Card saved.
Analyze a Robinhood Chain / Meridian Predict market (analysis-only)
You: @bankrbot use PolyRobin to scan Robinhood Chain for tokenized-stock event markets
PR: Found 3 on Meridian Predict (analysis-only via PolyRobin — no native BankrBot execution
yet). Top: "NVDA beats Q3 EPS"
— my est 0.63 vs 0.55, edge +8pts. No native execution yet; equivalent exists on
Polymarket — want me to execute there instead?
Guard rails doing their job
You: @bankrbot PolyRobin, go bigger on politics
PR: ⚠️ Category cap (gate 3) would exceed 25%. Stricter gate wins — I won't size up.
You can raise the cap explicitly, but I'd advise against it here.
Short version: PolyRobin never touches your money. It decides whether and
how much; BankrBot carries out the transfer from your own wallet, and only
after you reply yes. Prediction-market bets settle on Polymarket (Polygon) in
USDC — everything else PolyRobin guides stays on Robinhood Chain.
Here is the full path of a single dollar, using a real Polymarket-style market:
Market: "How many times will Elon tweet this week?" — a multi-outcome market split into buckets (e.g.
<100,100–149,150–199,200–249,250+). Each bucket is its own YES/NO outcome share that pays $1 if it's right and $0 if it's wrong. The price of a share (between $0.00 and $1.00) is the market's implied probability — a share at0.32means the market thinks that bucket has a ~32% chance.
1. Analyze (no money moves). PolyRobin builds its own probability for each bucket from posting history, recent cadence, and news, compares that to the share prices, and looks for a bucket where its estimate beats the price by enough to clear the edge gate. If nothing clears, it stands down — no bet.
2. Size + gate + confirm. For the bucket with an edge (say 150–199 priced
at 0.28 while PolyRobin estimates 0.38), it computes a fractional-Kelly size,
runs all 7 safety gates, and shows you the math. Nothing is spent yet — gate
5 requires your explicit yes.
3. Fund the venue. Bets need USDC on Polygon (Polymarket's collateral). Robinhood Chain is your home base, so if that's where your funds sit, BankrBot bridges the USDC into Polygon first, and PolyRobin accounts for bridge latency in time-sensitive markets. Your keys stay yours — PolyRobin never holds them.
4. Place the order (your funds, your signature). On your yes, BankrBot submits
the order to Polymarket's on-chain order book and spends your USDC to buy YES
shares of the 150–199 bucket at the going price. Example: $28 buys 100 shares at
0.28. The shares sit in your Polymarket position — a contract you control,
not PolyRobin and not a PolyRobin-held pool.
5. Resolve. At week's end, Polymarket's resolution mechanism (the UMA optimistic
oracle) records the actual tweet count. Exactly one bucket wins. Winning shares
redeem 1-for-$1; losing shares go to $0. If Elon posted 172 times, your 100
150–199 shares are now worth $100 (bought for $28).
6. Settle back. PolyRobin tracks the resolution, notifies you, and — again only on
your yes — has BankrBot redeem the winning shares back to USDC in your wallet,
which can then bridge back to Robinhood Chain. Every step is written to a Rationale
Card in ~/.polyrobin/audit/.
Your wallet (USDC)
│ ┌── PolyRobin: estimate → edge → size → 7 gates ─┐ (no funds move)
│ └──────────────── you reply `yes` ───────────────┘
▼
[BankrBot] bridge USDC → Polygon ──► buy YES shares of the chosen bucket on Polymarket
▼
Your Polymarket position (shares you control)
▼
UMA oracle resolves ──► winning shares redeem $1 each, losers $0
▼
[BankrBot] redeem → USDC back in your wallet (you confirm) ──► optional bridge home
What you actually pay: the cost of the shares (your stake) plus Polygon network gas and any spread/slippage between the quoted and filled price — PolyRobin folds those into the net-EV math before asking you to confirm, so the edge it quotes is after costs, not before. It never fronts, pools, or custodies funds, and it will not size a bet it can't cleanly exit (gate 7).
SKILL.md lives on the main branch of this repo. Point BankrBot at it:
install the polyrobin skill from https://github.com/PhantomCapAI/PolyRobin
Then talk to it on X — tag @bankrbot in a post or reply, e.g.
@bankrbot using the polyrobin skill, find crypto markets resolving this week — and
he replies to you on X.
For local development:
git clone https://github.com/PhantomCapAI/PolyRobin.git
cd PolyRobin
cp examples/config.yaml ~/.polyrobin/config.yaml # tune your gates
./scripts/validate.sh # check SKILL.md + configCopy examples/config.yaml to ~/.polyrobin/config.yaml.
It holds decision parameters only — gates, Kelly fraction, venue scope.
Execution runs through BankrBot; no private keys ever go in config.
./scripts/validate.sh checks the config parses and that every gate value sits
inside its safe band (and that gate 5 confirmation stays on).
Want to see what PolyRobin actually outputs? Every recommendation is logged as a
Rationale Card. See a full worked sample:
examples/rationale-card.md (readable) ·
examples/rationale-card.json (machine-readable).
| Concern | Owner |
|---|---|
| Placing bets, swaps, bridging, perps, lending | BankrBot (existing rails) |
| Independent probability, edge, conviction, sizing | PolyRobin (this skill) |
| The 7 gates, HALT, kill-switch, confirmations | PolyRobin |
| Signing / custody of funds | You / your wallet — never PolyRobin |
See CONTRIBUTING.md. Run ./scripts/validate.sh before a PR
(CI runs it too), keep SKILL.md / README.md / examples/config.yaml
consistent, and report vulnerabilities privately per SECURITY.md.
PolyRobin ($PR) — the project's community token on Robinhood Chain.
| Ticker | PR |
| Chain | Robinhood Chain |
| Contract (PR) | 0x41f297b03c10ae2148cc31bc7e454a531cc58ba3 |
| Pair | PR / WETH |
| Live price & charts | GeckoTerminal |
| Trade / info | Bankr |
The token is separate from the skill's logic — PolyRobin's analysis, safety gates, and execution guidance work identically whether or not you hold it. Not financial advice; always verify the contract address yourself before interacting.
PolyRobin is a decision-support tool, not financial advice. Prediction markets are speculative and can lose 100% of staked capital. Availability and legality vary by jurisdiction — you are solely responsible for compliance with applicable laws and platform terms. PolyRobin cannot guarantee profit and will regularly and correctly recommend doing nothing.
MIT © PolyRobin Labs. See LICENSE.