Predictive History

A source-disciplined public study companion for Professor Jiang's Predictive History corpus.

This repository organizes source metadata, study annotations, reading paths, claims, concepts, predictions, and future book/site material so Jiang students can study the corpus with source discipline: what was said, where it was said, when it was said, what it implies, and how it can be compared or tested.

If you are using an LLM or coding agent, start with AGENTS.md and llms.txt. Those files define the workshop identity, the ph-civ boundary, and the canonical reading path without repeating the whole repository map here.

Surface Vocabulary

• Source item - the underlying Jiang video, essay, interview, or other source.
• Source transcript - the source-text or transcript record for a source item when available.
• Commentary - the main study surface for thesis, claims, concepts, predictions, counter-readings, routes, limits, and correction paths.
• civ-ph placement card - the compact civilizational orientation and re-entry page.

Use Part One and Part Two only for the whole corpus architecture: Part One is Civilization, and Part Two is Apocalypse.

Status

This is an independent educational and research project. It is not an official archive, not a substitute for Professor Jiang's original videos or essays, and not endorsed by Professor Jiang unless explicitly stated later.

Representation is not endorsement. The repository documents and analyzes claims in the corpus; it does not automatically affirm every claim, prediction, interpretation, or framing.

For Professor Jiang or course-team review, see FOR-PROFESSOR-JIANG.md.

License status is pending. Until a license is added, do not assume broad reuse rights for repository contents or source material.

V1 Scope

The repository is now organized as a one-year course in two parts. Part One, Civilization, discovers the laws of history through Civilization, Great Books, and the literary spine from Homer to Tolstoy. Part Two, Apocalypse, sees those laws applied through Geo-Strategy, Game Theory, Secret History, and pressure corridors.

Included now:

• contribution rules
• annotation template
• source and transcript status vocabulary
• correction workflow
• repo map
• export policy from the private working corpus
• the full Geo-Strategy spine for geo-01 through geo-20
• the Civilization Volume II scaffold and multi-layer commentary template
• the first Civilization spine from civ-01 through civ-60, with civ-02 through civ-60 in review
• the civ-ph derived study corpus for calibrated and in-review placement cards and re-entry
• the Great Books Volume V spine from gb-01 through gb-10, with all ten units in review
• the full Game Theory spine for gt-01 through gt-22
• the full Secret History spine for sh-01 through sh-28, with sh-11, sh-16, sh-17, and sh-18 preserved as dual-role Civilization support nodes
• the Civilization and Apocalypse part guides under book/parts/
• the first human-curation-ready Predictive History Museum calibration set, toward one exhibit per chapter across Civilization and Apocalypse
• the first Apocalypse pressure corridors and minimal strategic registries
• the first cross-volume corridors, Homer to Dante and Homer to Tolstoy, linking Civilization, Great Books, and selected Secret History study routes
• the first Tolstoy causation lens, framing Predictive History as pressure reading rather than great-man history

Not included yet:

• generous excerpts
• external package exports
• additional approved route-level population into the existing ph-civ public repo
• private operator notes
• internal working backlog
• final Civilization commentary analysis beyond civ-01

Intended Audience

The first audience is Jiang students and serious listeners who already care about the corpus and want a clearer study map.

The repository should help readers:

• find the right starting point
• understand the major series
• distinguish source text, summary, annotation, prediction, and counter-reading
• see uncertainty and review status clearly
• contribute corrections without weakening source discipline

Public Surfaces

• llms.txt - compact AI-facing entry point
• FOR-PROFESSOR-JIANG.md - unofficial study companion posture, correction path, and course-improvement signal guide
• docs/chapter-index.md - readable chapter catalog
• docs/series-roadmap.md - series-level planning and batch order
• docs/repo-map.md - intended folder structure
• docs/predictive-history-after-tolstoy.md - front-door essay on Predictive History as a response to Tolstoy's causation problem
• docs/predictive-history-museum.md - storage, folder, metadata, and bidder contract for the Predictive History Museum
• docs/ph-choreography.md - public-surface choreography for ph-civ, ph-apo, and ph-mus
• docs/ph-civ-publication-gate.md - gate that keeps ph-civ population paused until route-level export approval
• docs/ph-civ-pre-publication-release.md - pilot-001 scaffold, front-door requirements, and empty states before population
• corpus/ - public source items and annotations
• corpus/civ-ph/ - derived civ-ph placement cards for calibrated and in-review source items
• corpus/cross-volume/ - guided corridors across routed volumes, beginning with Homer to Dante and the broader Homer to Tolstoy literary arc
• corpus/world-war/ - Apocalypse pressure corridors
• corpus/media-packs/ - Predictive History Museum exhibits: human-curated, agent-structured artifact doorways, targeting one exhibit per chapter across Civilization and Apocalypse
• corpus/game-theory/ - Game Theory corpus pointers for gt-01 through gt-22
• corpus/great-books/ - Great Books corpus pointers for gb-01 through gb-10
• corpus/secret-history/ - Secret History corpus pointers for sh-01 through sh-28
• corpus/geo-strategy/ - Geo-Strategy corpus pointers for geo-01 through geo-20
• corpus/civilization/ - Civilization corpus pointers for civ-01 through civ-60
• registries/ - current source index, cross-volume edge registry, and future cross-reference registries
• registries/causation-lenses.yaml - actor-pressure pairs for the Tolstoy question
• registries/ph-civ-export-manifest.yaml - pre-publication export manifest for pilot-001
• registries/ph-claim-boundaries.yaml - allowed claim boundary tags for public-surface export readiness
• book/ - public chapter files and reader-facing material
• book/parts/ - semester guides for Civilization and Apocalypse
• book/parts/civilization-to-apocalypse.md - transition essay from law discovery to applied pressure reading
• book/volume-i/ - Geo-Strategy source transcripts and commentaries
• book/volume-ii/ - Civilization chapter scaffold and first sixty-chapter spine
• book/volume-iii/ - Game Theory source transcripts and commentaries
• book/volume-v/ - Great Books chapter scaffold and first ten-chapter spine
• book/volume-vi/ - Secret History source transcripts and commentaries
• book/volume-ii/civ-01/ - calibrated Civilization pilot source transcript and commentary
• docs/annotation-block.md - required annotation format
• docs/source-status.md - status ladder for source and transcript handling
• docs/corrections-policy.md - how corrections are reported and reviewed
• docs/git-workflow.md - safe pull/push workflow for this checkout

Machine Entry

• llms.txt is the model-facing index.
• chapter-manifest.yaml is the routing table for chapter-by-chapter loads.
• registries/cross-volume-links.yaml is the typed edge registry for public cross-volume corridors.
• The default load is one chapter at a time.

Contributing

If you want to help improve the repository, start with CONTRIBUTING.md. It explains the source-discipline rules, rights expectations, and review process for new material or corrections.

Source Discipline

Every public corpus item should preserve a stable source ID such as geo-01, vi-16, or es-13, along with the original source URL and publication date when known.

Video-derived claims should include timestamps where practical. Transcript text and longer excerpts require rights review before publication.

Roadmap

See docs/series-roadmap.md for the series-level plan and current batch order.