A rigorous, evidence-based catalog of hidden consequences in systems and decisions.
Evidence-based analyses across 8 categories. Every claim quantified. Every source cited.
Every analysis follows the CHAIN Framework:
C — Context What's the situation? What decision is being made?
H — Hypothesis What do people expect? (the first-order claim)
A — Actual Chain What actually happens? (2nd, 3rd, 4th order effects)
I — Impact Quantified consequences (before/after/delta)
N — Navigation Don't-if / If-you-must / Alternatives
Every entry includes falsifiability criteria — what would prove it wrong.
This is not a blog. It's a reference library for decision-makers who want to avoid predictable surprises.
| Decision | What You Expect | What Actually Happens |
|---|---|---|
| Adopt Kubernetes | "Better scaling" | +40-60% infra team size, 3x onboarding time |
| Go Microservices | "Independent deployments" | +300% debugging time, distributed tracing tax |
| Index Fund Investing | "Passive beats active" | Correlation → 1 in crashes, reflexivity loops |
| Remote Work | "Flexibility + talent pool" | +36% meeting hours, weak ties decay |
| Category | Prefix | Examples |
|---|---|---|
| Technology | T | Kubernetes, microservices, monorepos, serverless |
| AI & Automation | A | Copilot skill atrophy, AI content flood, code gen debt |
| Markets | M | Index reflexivity, ZIRP zombies, freemium ceilings |
| Policy | P | GDPR moats, rent control, Section 230, AI regulation |
| Organizations | O | Agile bloat, layoff survivor syndrome, unlimited PTO |
| Society | S | Social media loneliness, algorithmic radicalization |
| Infrastructure | I | Cloud concentration, EV grid strain, data center water |
| Science & Health | H | Antibiotic resistance, replication crisis, AI diagnosis |
| Repository | Description | Status |
|---|---|---|
content |
Entry database (CC BY 4.0) — contribute here | 🟢 Active |
secondordereffects.github.io |
Rendering engine (soe.lagbase.com) — private | 🟢 Active |
We welcome contributions that meet our quality bar:
- ✅ Follows CHAIN framework
- ✅ Includes quantified impact (numbers, not adjectives)
- ✅ Cites verifiable sources
- ✅ States falsifiability criteria
See our Contributing Guide or open a Discussion.
Research on decision lag and hidden consequences.
→ lagbase.com · github.com/lagbase
Content: CC BY 4.0 · Code: MIT
© 2026 Naveen Reddy · soe.lagbase.com · @lagaboratory