forecast463 Overview

This package is created to allow students to submit their daily forecasts for the PSU STAT 463 projects. The main function consists in the send_prediction which takes the following inputs:

• group: the number of your group which should be an integer between 1 and 17.
• prediction: the list object described in the "Project Description" document posted in the Piazza course page (under "Resources").
• from: your group email address in the correct format (e.g. "psu.forecasting.group.2@gmail.com").
• key: the character string representing the unique key assigned to your group which you received by email.

Here is a stylized example of the usage of the function send_prediction:

group = 2
from = "psu.forecasting.group.2@gmail.com"
key = "aaaaaaaaaaaaaaa" 
send_prediction(group = group, prediction = prediction, from = from, key = key)

Another available function is the check_credential function which is used within the previous send_prediction function. This function can be used to check if the credentials you will use to submit the forecast are valid (i.e. your group number, key and email address). An example of how to use this function can be found below.

group = 2
from = "psu.forecasting.group.2@gmail.com"
key = "aaaaaaaaaaaaaaa"
credential_OK = check_credentials(group = group, from = from, key = key)

## Credentials appear to be OK

credential_OK

## [1] TRUE

Finally, you can also check if your prediction is correctly formatted. An example prediction object can be built as follows (note: this does not represent an actual predicition since it is a random generation of numbers).

mobile_pred = rnorm(1)
mobile_ci = mobile_pred + c(cbind(-abs(rnorm(1)), abs(rnorm(1)))) #
mobile_forecasts = list(mobile_pred = mobile_pred, mobile_ci = mobile_ci)
  
desktop_pred = rnorm(1)
desktop_ci = desktop_pred + c(cbind(-abs(rnorm(1)), abs(rnorm(1)))) 
desktop_forecasts = list(desktop_pred = desktop_pred, desktop_ci = desktop_ci)
  
silvio_pred = rnorm(1) 
silvio_ci = silvio_pred + c(-abs(rnorm(1)), abs(rnorm(1))) 
silvio_forecasts = list(silvio_pred = silvio_pred, silvio_ci = silvio_ci)
  
beyonce_pred = rnorm(1)
beyonce_ci = beyonce_pred + c(-abs(rnorm(1)), abs(rnorm(1)))
beyonce_forecasts = list(beyonce_pred = beyonce_pred, beyonce_ci = beyonce_ci)
  
chomsky_pred = rnorm(1) 
chomsky_ci = chomsky_pred + c(-abs(rnorm(1)), abs(rnorm(1)))
chomsky_forecasts = list(chomsky_pred = chomsky_pred, chomsky_ci = chomsky_ci)
  
lazio_pred = rnorm(1) 
lazio_ci = lazio_pred + c(-abs(rnorm(1)), abs(rnorm(1))) 
lazio_forecasts = list(lazio_pred = lazio_pred, lazio_ci = lazio_ci)
  
thanks_pred = rnorm(1) 
thanks_ci = thanks_pred + c(-abs(rnorm(1)), abs(rnorm(1))) 
thanks_forecasts = list(thanks_pred = thanks_pred, thanks_ci = thanks_ci)
  
 
prediction = list(mobile = mobile_forecasts,
                  desktop = desktop_forecasts, 
                  silvio = silvio_forecasts, 
                  beyonce = beyonce_forecasts, 
                  chomsky = chomsky_forecasts, 
                  lazio = lazio_forecasts, 
                  thanks = thanks_forecasts)

Once this prediction object is built, you can check if it is correctly formatted by using the check_prediction function as follows.

prediction_OK = check_prediction(prediction = prediction)

## Prediction object appears to be correctly formatted.

prediction_OK

## [1] TRUE

Install Instructions

To install the forecast463 package, please run the following code:

devtools::install_github("SMAC-Group/forecast463")