Alpha Suite Public Notes

Public-facing research notes for a Polymarket bond-style strategy framework.

This repository contains a public-facing, sanitized subset of the framework.

It does not include:

• private keys
• wallet credentials
• live deployment secrets
• production state files
• the current higher-margin strategy logic

It does include:

• a high-level description of the bond-style framework
• the weather bond strategy code path
• the weather-bond backtest system
• the city-calibrated weather bond dry-run variant
• a Chinese strategy article
• a Chinese usage note
• a Chinese Twitter/X thread draft
• a boundary note on what can and cannot be claimed from the historical data

It is organized so the folder can be uploaded directly as a standalone public repository.

Files

• README_CN.md
  • Chinese entrypoint
• alpha_suite/
  • sanitized weather bond strategy code and research utilities
• alpha_suite/backtest.py
  • CLI entrypoint for the public backtest runner
• alpha_suite/backtesting/
  • public backtest system used to replay bond-style ideas on historical markets
• docs/01_PUBLIC_STRATEGY_PLAN.md
  • release plan and public positioning
• docs/02_STRATEGY_ARTICLE_CN.md
  • long-form Chinese article focused on strategy method
• docs/03_HOW_TO_USE_CN.md
  • how to use the framework as research, not as a turnkey live system
• docs/04_TWITTER_THREAD_CN.md
  • Chinese Twitter/X thread draft
• docs/05_DATA_BASIS_AND_BOUNDARY.md
  • wording boundaries and evidence standards

Positioning

The correct positioning for this repository is:

a real research framework that ran, produced a stable profitable window for a period of time, and was later retired in favor of a different direction.

This repository should be read as a methodology and strategy release, not as a plug-and-play live trading system.

Strategy Roles

This repository currently exposes three strategy implementations:

• alpha_suite/strategies/bond_buyer.py
  • the original BondBuyer framework
• alpha_suite/strategies_v2/bond_buyer_v2.py
  • the later BondBuyerV2 framework, which became the main working branch
• alpha_suite/strategies_v2/city_bond.py
  • a city-calibrated dry-run variant built on top of BondBuyerV2

The public strategy content is primarily about the weather bond line of research.

Backtesting

The public repo now includes the historical backtest subsystem:

• python -m alpha_suite.backtest --help

This backtest layer is included as research infrastructure, not as a claim that historical replay is sufficient for live deployment.