D-BLW-5: observer-effect loop resumed with the belief-arena reader — built, measured, all gates green

[AdaWorldAPI]

What

Operator ruling 2026-09-05: "resume the D-BLW-5 loop with the belief arena reader". This PR builds the observer-effect probe (crates/lance-graph-supervisor/tests/d_blw_5_observer.rs, cycle-driver-gated), runs it, and records the first measurement.

Second commit (92384559, board only): records the same-day operator ruling E-PLANNING-MIGRATES-TO-LOCO-R2IL-DATAFUSION-IS-GRACE-PERIOD-1 ("every planning is in migration to ogar-loco and ogar-r2il; DataFusion is out of the picture; what exists gets a grace period, nothing new migrates to it") with a ⊘ note in CLAUDE.md, and banks the D-OIF-1 production census (exec-runs/d-oif-1-census-main-thread.md, E-THE-UNFINISHED-UDF-WAS-NOT-THE-DEBT-1) that re-derives #1185's D-OIF-1 as ruling A — SUPERSEDED / REMOVE (policy.rs is a retirement cone; no hash implementation; no DataFusion projection seam). No code in that commit.

The instrument

• 40 owners 1:1 (T / F+ / F− / P 8 each, N 4, CTRL 4), deterministic synthetic corpus with noun subjects.
• Payload = the shipped shape₀ × rank₀ (NestedBands::shape_rank → ShapeRankPayload), sealed per arm in RemeasureLedger at V0 and injected into each owner's BeliefArena as 16 shape beliefs plus subject Inh prior at frequency 1, confidence = typicality (the prior's mass at the observed rank).
• Propagation = rcr_abduce + close_transitive iterated to a fixed point. Reader A = the verse's statement was revised; reader B = another cohort subject has been inferred to carry the verse's predicate (derived layer, reserved terms excluded).
• Gates O1–O7, CTRL idempotence, DROP — every one with a can-fire / can-stay-silent twin. Numbers pinned before the first run (spec .claude/board/exec-runs/d-blw-5-build-spec-main-thread.md).

Result (recorded run 4)

arm	typicality	rate_b V0→V1	Δκ	gate
T	0.150	0.47 → 0.89	−0.074	O4 SILENT at floor 0.10
F+ (shifted into an empty bucket)	0.000	unchanged	0	DROP
F−	0.200	0.52 → 0.92	−0.087	O5 d = +0.087 SILENT
P (uniform)	0.0625	unchanged	0	O2 holds
N (bloom read)	—	—	0	O3 frozen
CTRL	—	unchanged	0 exactly	idempotent

The pinned κ observable is silent; the reader marginals saturate in proportion to injected typicality (φ −0.25 → −0.91 on T) while placebo, null and control are bit-identical. Reported as-is, not reclassified; D-BLW-5b (marginal floors, pre-registered) is queued.

Instrument fixes found by dry runs (no threshold moved; all on the record)

1. reason() iterated to a fixed point (a single round moved CTRL by −0.0028 with no injection).
2. Aperiodic corpus counts (w % {2,3,4} had period 12 → 12-atom prior with empty buckets).
3. Typicality carried in confidence, not frequency — f < 0.5 is a confident negation that admit_derived's expectation-CHOICE replaces with a vacuous path (c = 3.5e-11). New board entry: E-NARS-EXPECTATION-CHOICE-PREFERS-IGNORANCE-TO-A-CONFIDENT-NEGATIVE-1.
4. O7 restated to what can fire (1266 reserved-term derived beliefs on T; 0 accepted by B).

Board

E-BLW5-FIRST-MEASUREMENT-1; STATUS_BOARD D-BLW-5 update + D-BLW-5b queued; plan §12.9b; doctrine §7 status note; AGENT_LOG; LATEST_STATE (two deltas); TD-SUPERVISOR-CLIPPY-RED-ON-BASE-1 (pre-existing clippy red in cycle_driver.rs / probe_ignition_64k.rs, not this arc's code); Sonnet build tag-file; the two ruling/census entries above. Gates: append-only OK, citation-decay OK, supersession index regenerated last. jc becomes a supervisor dev-dependency (the pre-ratified oracle edge; never production).

🤖 Generated with Claude Code

https://claude.ai/code/session_016WkNBjHc2e3zuyz9i8qJEv

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📥 Commits

Reviewing files that changed from the base of the PR and between f8b629a and 785cd01.

📒 Files selected for processing (14)

• .claude/board/AGENT_LOG.md
• .claude/board/EPIPHANIES.md
• .claude/board/LATEST_STATE.md
• .claude/board/STATUS_BOARD.md
• .claude/board/SUPERSESSION-INDEX.md
• .claude/board/TECH_DEBT.md
• .claude/board/exec-runs/d-blw-5-build-sonnet.md
• .claude/board/exec-runs/d-blw-5-build-spec-main-thread.md
• .claude/board/exec-runs/d-oif-1-census-main-thread.md
• .claude/knowledge/observer-effect-tfpn-doctrine.md
• .claude/plans/cycle-loop-closure-driver-v1.md
• CLAUDE.md
• crates/lance-graph-supervisor/Cargo.toml
• crates/lance-graph-supervisor/tests/d_blw_5_observer.rs

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