Board: restore the dropped "mean" qualifier on #940's 25 %/9 % contribution figures (CodeRabbit Minor on #941)

.claude/board/INTEGRATION_PLANS.md

@@ -1,3 +1,51 @@
+## 2026-08-12 — substrate-comfort-zones-v1 (PLAN; where does each substrate formula feel at home?)
+
+Plan: `.claude/plans/substrate-comfort-zones-v1.md`. Status **ACTIVE**,
+exploratory tier (bars author-written, unaudited — stated in the header).
+Operator framing, three messages: *hold different situations constant (over
+water) vs flatland vs storm with high velocity differences / turbulence* ·
+*good geometry vs badly calibrated* · *then we find out where the substrate
+formulas feel at home*.
+
+**The hypothesis to falsify:** a badly-calibrated substrate that maps
+DYNAMICALLY beats a well-calibrated absolute one in strong storms —
+miscalibration as a regime-dependent property, not a uniform defect.
+
+**Not fresh speculation — a convergence of three already-measured findings:**
+Fisher-z's opposite verdicts (8.3× better in the storm tail, 4.7× worse on
+ring means, #926); the three-register result that rank-normalised palette256
+is the ONLY frame where cross-variable distance is defined (so "no absolute
+anchor" and "the only frame that works" are one property from two sides);
+and the operator-ruled golden index floor (#932), reused as the geometry
+axis's pre-existing good/bad split rather than inventing a new quality scale.
+
+**Two axes, varied independently so results are attributable:** GEOMETRY
+(`GOLDEN-HI` above the index floor · `GOLDEN-LO` in the sub-floor resonance
+zone · `TEMPERED` 17/stride-4 · `GRID`), at EXACTLY equal sample budget (the
+W2s-a unequal-budget lesson). CALIBRATION (`ABS-OWN` · `ABS-FOREIGN` = the
+literal "badly calibrated" · `RANK-DYN` and `FISHERZ-DYN` = anchor-free but
+dynamic — the operator's actual candidate).
+
+**§1 PREFLIGHT ALREADY RUN, and it corrected the plan before any bar
+existed** (the W6 lesson applied prospectively): (1) **"flatland" is NOT one
+regime** — it spans from calmer-than-ocean (Amazon `|∇p|`=10.2) to 3×-ocean
+(W Siberia 43.8), so the regime axis is defined by MEASURED `|∇p|`, not by
+surface-type label; (2) **elevation confounds MSLP** (extrapolated over
+terrain) — only boxes with elev σ ≤ 150 m are admissible, which excludes US
+Great Plains (698 m), Argentine pampas (792 m) and two others on evidence;
+(3) **wind speed does not discriminate** (ocean 5.33 vs flatland 5.47 m/s) —
+scoring uses `|∇p|` and speed σ, never mean speed. Adopted ladder R1 Amazon
+10.2 → R2 ocean 14.9 → R3 W Siberia 43.8 → R4 storm 95.6, a 9.3× range.
+
+**Bars:** C0 controls-first with BOTH a shuffled codebook and a degenerate
+geometry, each cheap-smoke-tested for losability before the full run;
+C1 regime ladder must hold on ≥3 timesteps (anti-cherry-pick); **C2 the
+crossover** — `RANK-DYN − ABS-OWN` must flip sign between calm and storm,
+with both failure directions pre-registered as reportable; C3 the
+miscalibration penalty must shrink with turbulence; C4 the geometry floor
+(a NULL is expected-plausible here per W5's B4 and must be said plainly);
+C5 the comfort matrix as the deliverable. ~150 MB, minutes. Doc-only.
+
 ## 2026-08-12 — golden-vs-tempered-stride-v1 (SUBSTRATE-GENERAL PLAN; head vs gut made falsifiable)
 
 Plan: `.claude/plans/golden-vs-tempered-stride-v1.md`. Status **ACTIVE**.

.claude/board/LATEST_STATE.md

@@ -855,7 +855,7 @@ Membrane consumers can now pull BOTH halves of a render `classid` BBB-safely fro
 | PR | Merged | Title | What it added |
 |---|---|---|---|
 | *gap note* | — | **#781–#925 are NOT in this table** — carried by the dated sections above + `PR_ARC_INVENTORY.md`. Recorded 2026-08-12 (codex P2 on #930) rather than silently reconstructed; the table had stalled at #780. | — |
-| **#940** | 2026-08-12 | W6 lands — vector-sum dipole model VOID by its own anti-vacuity control; stranded stratum empty by CT-F14's filter arithmetic; same-PR sign/units correction round | B0 VOID: single-geo R²=−0.104 (worse than the mean); both controls (permuted P_bow, P_bow rotated 90°) clear the `≤single-geo+0.03` ceiling. B3 stranded (`\|v_storm\|<8 m/s`): n=0 — `displacement_km≥250`/6h implies `\|v_storm\|≥11.57 m/s` for every admitted storm, `E-THE-DISPLACEMENT-FILTER-ATE-THE-STRANDED-STRATUM-1`. Same-PR: codex+CodeRabbit caught a sign-convention bug (`D=-spine(...)`, matching `low_pole_bearing()`'s own flip; verified offline that this leaves R²/B0/B1/B3 unchanged, confirmed on the actual re-run) and a units error (`c_bow` is km⁻¹ not dimensionless; replaced with the dimensionally valid `\|c_bow·P_bow\|` vs `\|D\|` metric — geo≈25%, bow≈9% of `\|D\|`). CT-F17's gate now moot for this model form. |
+| **#940** | 2026-08-12 | W6 lands — vector-sum dipole model VOID by its own anti-vacuity control; stranded stratum empty by CT-F14's filter arithmetic; same-PR sign/units correction round | B0 VOID: single-geo R²=−0.104 (worse than the mean); both controls (permuted P_bow, P_bow rotated 90°) clear the `≤single-geo+0.03` ceiling. B3 stranded (`\|v_storm\|<8 m/s`): n=0 — `displacement_km≥250`/6h implies `\|v_storm\|≥11.57 m/s` for every admitted storm, `E-THE-DISPLACEMENT-FILTER-ATE-THE-STRANDED-STRATUM-1`. Same-PR: codex+CodeRabbit caught a sign-convention bug (`D=-spine(...)`, matching `low_pole_bearing()`'s own flip; verified offline that this leaves R²/B0/B1/B3 unchanged, confirmed on the actual re-run) and a units error (`c_bow` is km⁻¹ not dimensionless; replaced with the dimensionally valid `\|c_bow·P_bow\|` vs `\|D\|` metric — mean-over-19-storms: geo≈25%, bow≈9% of mean `\|D\|`). CT-F17's gate now moot for this model form. |
 | **#938** | 2026-08-12 | W5 v2 RUN lands — B2 REVERSES to genuine FAIL, B3's VOID CONFIRMED at full headline scale, both link families now verified | B2: real diffusion resolved (raw rel-L2 vs unsmoothed input = 0.190), operator's own anisotropy = **1.5251 vs the 1.25 bar** (baseline through the clean 3.35σ mask = 1.0046 — the operator alone contributes ~0.52). `domino.rs` gather-design claim REFUTED at this test point. B3: 99.68 % (family A) / 99.56 % (family B) of the QUALIFYING population's control links land on a pure Fibonacci offset (n_qualifying=4 782 017, out of the headline lattice N=7 651 227 — not a 62k sub-sample) — dominated by the two discovered strides 2584=F(18) / 4181=F(19) respectively. Same-PR fixes for 3 more codex findings: family-B histogram was previously uncomputed (now measured + JSON patched); "four orders of magnitude" corrected to ~1.9 (76.9×); B4 downgraded from verdict to explicit descriptive reading (n=19 was dropped without pre-authorization — B4 stays open). |
 | **#936** | 2026-08-12 | W5 v1 RUN (B2 PASS / B3 VOID / B4 smooth) — ⊘ SUPERSEDED same day, all three verdicts compromised; v2 CODE fix merged in this PR, v2 RUN/results in flight | Codex found 4 real defects: B3 control subsampled at 250k/band (~74 % self-linked at headline, ratio 0.9996 uninformative); B2's fit floor = input σ (8 iters ≈ inert, "resolved" indistinguishable from "untouched"); bump only 1.72σ from the mask edge (analytic truncation ratio 1.2082 ≈ the measured "1.213 asymptote" — likely the MASK, not the operator); 99.38 % Fibonacci-membership figure was chat-only. Fixed same day, code merged HERE (`106ca605`, verified an ancestor of this PR's merge commit — corrects two overclaims caught by codex P2 on PR #937: the fix was described as "landing in a follow-up PR" when it had already landed, and the histogram artifact as "committed" when only the SCRIPT that produces it had landed — the tracked JSON is still v1's until the v2 run completes): full-band control, V-matched iteration scaling, bump moved to 3.35σ clearance + baseline-through-mask computed, offset histogram now computed by the script. The epiphany's MECHANISM survives (sub-cap 99.38 % measurement was never subsampled) but its "does not exist" phrasing was also softened (codex P2 on #937: 99.38 % ≠ 100 %, one N/one construction ≠ universal proof) — only the headline evidentiary number is retracted; the claim is restated at its actual evidentiary scope, not deleted. |
 | **#935** | 2026-08-12 | The validation wave RUNS: T1–T4 + W2s-a executed; `E-A-CONTROL-THAT-CANNOT-LOSE-IS-NO-CONTROL-1` | T2/T3/T4 PASS (68–106× at 200q; tempered 140/140 exact vs golden 124–127/140; 39.0 % naive-rounding collapse). T1 twice-corrected under codex review of its own run: verified-permanent m* = **1.9–2.7× q** (first-crossing 1.0–1.4× was not permanent; q=17: D*(22) back above the ceiling). W2s-a: G1 VOID, G2/G4 FAIL — the CONTROL is degenerate (two translated identical grids are symmetry-uniform, CV ~1e-12; cannot lose any evenness comparison). W5 pre-registered, run in flight at merge. |

.claude/board/PR_ARC_INVENTORY.md

@@ -39,6 +39,12 @@
   actual re-run's committed JSON, with the sign-flip's R²-invariance
   property verified by a standalone offline test before the fix was
   even committed.
+- **Correction (2026-08-12, CodeRabbit Minor on #941, appended per the
+  append-only rule — this entry merged before the finding landed):**
+  the "≈25 %" / "≈9 %" contribution figures above are **MEANS over the
+  19 storms** (`mean |c_geo·P_geo|` / `mean |c_bow·P_bow|` against
+  `mean |D|`, per the committed JSON's `fitted_contribution_Pa_per_km`
+  keys) — the qualifier was dropped when summarizing from the RUN entry.
 
 **Status:** MERGED (`adab8739`). Branch `claude/jirak-math-theorems-harvest-rfii13`
 → `main`. Probe + docs — zero product code.

.claude/board/STATUS_BOARD.md

@@ -1,3 +1,19 @@
+## substrate-comfort-zones-v1 — the comfort-zone map (PRE-REGISTERED 2026-08-12)
+
+Plan: `.claude/plans/substrate-comfort-zones-v1.md`. Regime × geometry ×
+calibration → where does each substrate formula feel at home. §1 preflight
+already run and it corrected two regime definitions before any bar existed.
+
+| D-id | Deliverable | Status | Feeds |
+|---|---|---|---|
+| D-CZ-0 | §1 regime preflight (`\|∇p\|` ladder, elevation-confound screen, speed-is-not-the-discriminator finding) | **DONE** — ladder R1 Amazon 10.2 → R2 ocean 14.9 → R3 W Siberia 43.8 → R4 storm 95.6 (9.3× range); 4 land candidates excluded on elev σ > 150 m | the regime axis all other rows score on |
+| D-CZ-1 | C0 controls (shuffled codebook + degenerate geometry), losability-smoke-tested BEFORE the full run | Queued | gates every cell — a control that can't lose voids its cell |
+| D-CZ-2 | C1 regime-ladder stability across ≥3 timesteps | Queued | anti-cherry-pick on the whole regime axis |
+| D-CZ-3 | **C2 the crossover** — `RANK-DYN − ABS-OWN` sign flip calm↔storm | Queued | **the operator's hypothesis, two-sided** |
+| D-CZ-4 | C3 miscalibration penalty vs turbulence (`ABS-FOREIGN`/`ABS-OWN` ratio per tier) | Queued | "storms forgive bad calibration" |
+| D-CZ-5 | C4 geometry floor on a SAMPLING-fidelity metric (NULL expected-plausible per W5 B4) | Queued | does the index floor bite where smoothing didn't |
+| D-CZ-6 | C5 the comfort matrix (the deliverable) | Queued | read-off answer to "where is each formula at home" |
+
 ## golden-vs-tempered-stride-v1 — head-vs-gut queue — RUN 2026-08-12
 
 Plan: `.claude/plans/golden-vs-tempered-stride-v1.md`. Standalone, zero fetch,