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v0.2.0 - Causal Walk-Forward, Stress Labelling & Official VIX Sourcing
Highlights v0.2.0
- Causal walk-forward fix: each fold now labels only the interval strictly after its own training window,
(r_k, r_{k+1}], filtering the full history from the stationary distribution with frozen parameters — the previous model's posterior is no longer carried forward. - Stress labelling (breaking): HMM and Hamilton models rank states by signed stress features via
RankingMethod.STRESS; the positive-drift guardrail no longer applies under STRESS. Signs are configurable withModelSettings.stress_signs. - Official volatility sourcing:
^VIXand^VIX3Mare read from CBOE first, then FRED, with the configured provider as fallback (volatility_source="official"). - Data-quality telemetry:
TelemetryPayloadgainssession_date,observation_date,is_staleand populated warnings (non-session as-of dates reported separately from stale data). - Signal vs. investable universes:
DataSettings.correlation_assetsdecouples the correlation features fromrisk_assets, which now only drives allocation and the backtest. - Live signal = backtest signal (breaking):
run_single_asofdefaults torefit_policy="walkforward", reproducing the walk-forward posterior exactly (train_end= last refit strictly before the observation date);refit_policy="daily"keeps the previous behaviour.
Full details in the CHANGELOG.