feat(psychometric): recover ESEM loadings and refuse reverse DSEM lags

[seonghobae]

Summary

• ADR 0005 still required a CPU f64 ESEM/DSEM fit path that does not treat raw topic proportions as Euclidean indicators.
• Adds standalone psychometric_fit: OLS recovers known exploratory cross-loadings from admitted ALR/ILR/logistic-normal coordinates; recovered RMSE is below a zero-loading collapse.
• DSEM lagged paths are admitted only when the predictor is strictly earlier in event time.
• A good global fit cannot reclassify formative or network constructs as reflective.
• Does not recreate psychometric_core (feat(psychometric): posterior ESEM input gates with true-parameter RMSE #49 owns input gates) and does not allocate migration 0007/0008 (#45 still owns 0007).

Claim boundary

• OLS loading recovery and event-time lag gates only. Not rotation, posterior pooling, invariance, or a full ESEM/DSEM sampler.
• Not a certification, attestation, or causal-identification claim.

Test plan

• RED: esem_dsem_fit_contract failed before the crate existed
• cargo test -p psychometric_fit --offline --lib --tests
• cargo clippy -p psychometric_fit --all-targets --offline -- -D warnings
• cargo llvm-cov -p psychometric_fit authored lines 108/108; nightly-2026-08-01 branches 30/30
• docstring, workspace, and documentation gates
• Exact-head CI and independent review

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📥 Commits

Reviewing files that changed from the base of the PR and between 7c29e7c and 2ea08a8.

⛔ Files ignored due to path filters (1)

• Cargo.lock is excluded by !**/*.lock

📒 Files selected for processing (18)

• ARCHITECTURE.md
• CHANGELOG.md
• Cargo.toml
• README.md
• crates/psychometric_fit/Cargo.toml
• crates/psychometric_fit/src/error.rs
• crates/psychometric_fit/src/fit.rs
• crates/psychometric_fit/src/lib.rs
• crates/psychometric_fit/tests/crate_contract.rs
• crates/psychometric_fit/tests/esem_dsem_fit_contract.rs
• docs/TRACEABILITY.md
• docs/adr/0005-posterior-esem-dsem.md
• docs/adr/README.md
• docs/research/esem-dsem-fit.md
• docs/research/standards-and-literature.md
• docs/validation/temporal-event-foundation.md
• scripts/check_workspace_contract.py
• tests/quality/test_check_docstrings.py

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[seonghobae]

Current HEAD 2ea08a87be3c87d7d8c400addcdf0fd3e8e830d0 includes current main, the CPU f64 ESEM/DSEM acceptance contract, and the dynamic workspace crate-count quality fix. Verified at this HEAD: cargo fmt --all -- --check; cargo test -p psychometric_fit --offline (8 tests including known-loading RMSE and forward event-time contracts); Python quality suite (89 tests); workspace, documentation, Rust docstring, and diff checks. Please provide the required independent approval; merge remains gated until current-head required checks and approval are present.

[devin-ai-integration]

✅ Devin Review: No Issues Found

Devin Review analyzed this PR and found no bugs or issues to report.