feat(mbco_mi): fixed-branch ARIV option + branch-mixing diagnostics - #44
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- medsim_method_mbco_mi(ariv = c('own','fixed')): always emits indirect_p_fixed,
branch_mix, p_branch_a, stacked_branch, r4, r4_fixed (additive to the contract;
indirect_p unchanged unless ariv='fixed')
- .medsim_d4_mbco(fixed_branch=): d_k recomputed on the stacked fit's branch;
returns stacked_branch; numerator d_S shared
- tests: 4 new (contract+diagnostics, routing, r4_fixed >= r4, K=1 coincidence);
full suite 1137 pass / 0 fail / 1 skip
- NEWS: dev-version entry
Motivation: Missing Effect ms:check 2026-08-16 (Fable KO #2) + comparator pilot:
own-branch r4 < fixed-branch r4 in every cell -> interior-null D4 liberal.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
…ARIV .medsim_d4_mbco() gains an lls_S passthrough; medsim_method_mbco_mi() computes the stacked log-likelihood triple once and passes it to both the own-branch and fixed-branch calls (was refit twice per replication). No numeric change. Addresses /code-review 44 finding. Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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…note Co-Authored-By: Claude Fable 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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Summary
medsim_method_mbco_mi()gainsariv = c("own", "fixed")and always emits additive diagnostics next to the method contract:indirect_p_fixed,branch_mix,p_branch_a,stacked_branch,r4,r4_fixed.indirect_pis unchanged unlessariv = "fixed"(default"own"= legacy Chan–Meng)..medsim_d4_mbco(fixed_branch = ): per-imputation statistics recomputed on the branch the stacked constrained fit selected; numeratord_Sshared; returnsstacked_branch.medsim_analyze_*,cluster.Rcollapse audit, and existing consumers are untouched (branch_switchsemantics unchanged).Why
Standard
r4averages per-imputation MBCO statistics each computed on its own winning branch. When imputations disagree on the branch (Missing Effect pilot: 21–91% of replicates near the null), that average is pulled down, the ARIV is under-estimated, and D4 is inflated. Missing Effectms:check2026-08-16 (Fable KO #2) +code/pilot-comparators-2026-08-16.R: own-branchr4< fixed-branchr4in every cell; interior-null D4 .062–.096 vs .020–.070 fixed.Tests (run in this worktree)
devtools::test()→ 1137 passed / 0 failed / 1 skipped (baseline dev: same skip). 4 new tests intest-methods-missing.R: contract + diagnostics present;ariv="fixed"routesindirect_p_fixedintoindirect_pwith identical point estimate;r4_fixed >= r4with shared numerator; K=1 (complete data) → both p-values coincide,branch_mix = 0.E2E (live,
devtools::load_all(), interior null a=.39 b=0, n=120, 25% MAR on M and Y, m=20)Mixing case: own-branch r4 under-estimates (0.278 vs 0.884) and p moves from .083 to .156; no-mixing case: identical, as required.
Follow-up
Release as 0.5.1 so Missing Effect can bump its
config.Rguard and run the queued fixed-branch Hopper re-run (.STATUSQUEUED-2026-08-17).🤖 Generated with Claude Code