BayesianBahn 0.1.0
First draft release. Predictions are experimental — always cross-check
times and connections with DB's official apps.
Added
- From/to journey search with direct trains and one-transfer connections;
arrival predictions as full distributions (median, 80% credible interval,
histogram) computed from each train's real delay history, not DB's
forecast. - Bayesian transfer propagation: the passenger boards the first connecting
train that has not left yet — per-train catch probabilities, honest
bimodal distributions when a connection is at risk, and the probability
of missing all listed connections. - Live conditioning: when IRIS reports a delay, the delta model anchors the
prediction on it (backtested: 3.2× lower CRPS than ignoring live data). - Deutschland-Ticket filter (regional trains only), on by default when the
feeder is regional. - Departure time and date pickers; dates beyond DB's ~1-day plan horizon
are planned from the historical timetable (weekday-aware, public
holidays run the Sunday timetable) with a clear warning, including when
the date crosses the biannual timetable change. - Live station boards and per-train predictions (cancellation rates
included) behind the top-bar icon. - Country-wide coverage via on-demand per-train data (a few KB per train,
cached ~a day, works offline once fetched); bundled starter data for the
Augsburg/München region; optional bulk download for offline use,
refreshed daily to within ~a day of reality.