Skip to content

BayesianBahn 0.1.0

Choose a tag to compare

@github-actions github-actions released this 19 Jul 11:01
· 133 commits to main since this release

First draft release. Predictions are experimental — always cross-check
times and connections with DB's official apps.

Added

  • From/to journey search with direct trains and one-transfer connections;
    arrival predictions as full distributions (median, 80% credible interval,
    histogram) computed from each train's real delay history, not DB's
    forecast.
  • Bayesian transfer propagation: the passenger boards the first connecting
    train that has not left yet — per-train catch probabilities, honest
    bimodal distributions when a connection is at risk, and the probability
    of missing all listed connections.
  • Live conditioning: when IRIS reports a delay, the delta model anchors the
    prediction on it (backtested: 3.2× lower CRPS than ignoring live data).
  • Deutschland-Ticket filter (regional trains only), on by default when the
    feeder is regional.
  • Departure time and date pickers; dates beyond DB's ~1-day plan horizon
    are planned from the historical timetable (weekday-aware, public
    holidays run the Sunday timetable) with a clear warning, including when
    the date crosses the biannual timetable change.
  • Live station boards and per-train predictions (cancellation rates
    included) behind the top-bar icon.
  • Country-wide coverage via on-demand per-train data (a few KB per train,
    cached ~a day, works offline once fetched); bundled starter data for the
    Augsburg/München region; optional bulk download for offline use,
    refreshed daily to within ~a day of reality.