Outcome Tracking

Outcome Tracking

Predictions are graded against reality, at fixed horizons, with no human intervention.

The horizons

Horizon	Typically
7 days	operational claims — a loop that stays silent for a month teaches nothing this quarter
30 days	short-term calls
90 days	quarter-scale judgements
180 days	strategic positioning

A durable Outcome Clock (scheduler.py) fires at each horizon and grades whatever has come due. It survives restarts — a prediction made today is still graded in six months, whether or not anyone remembers it was made.

Every prediction carries an invalidation condition

Governance Engine rejects a forecast that does not state what would prove it wrong. This is not bureaucracy: an unfalsifiable prediction can never be graded, so it can never be learned from. Requiring the condition up front is what makes the whole loop possible.

What a grade does

A grade is one of exactly three results — correct, partial, incorrect:

Result	Consequence
correct	the belief is reinforced; the member's Reputation rises
partial	counted at half weight — a call that was directionally right
incorrect	the belief's confidence is lowered, attributed to reality

Two things are deliberately not in that list:

• Minority was right. Not a fourth result but a pattern over the three: when a prediction the minority made grades correct, the dissenting member's reputation rises and the fact that the council overruled them is recorded.
• Unverifiable. There is no "unknown" grade, because a judge that cannot observe does not grade at all — it abstains, the prediction stays pending, and the abstain rate is reported as its own number rather than collapsed into a zero.

That second one matters more than it looks. A judge that guesses when it cannot observe manufactures a record that looks like learning and is not.

The loop closes here

Deliberation → Verdict → Prediction → (7/30/90/180d) → Grade
     ↑                                                  │
     └────────── House Mind + Reputation ←──────────────┘

Most agent systems stop at Verdict. Everything to the right of it is what makes the House an institution rather than a very articulate session.

Related

The same discipline is published as a standalone standard — Genesis Reality Grading — whose governing law is that a provider's assertion is not evidence: a system's own claim of success carries no weight, and only observable outcomes count.

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