Predict Radar

Free public dashboard for monitoring sharp probability moves in prediction markets.

V1 Scope

• Live providers: Polymarket, Kalshi
• Opinion: disabled until official API key is granted (Coming soon in UI)
• Snapshot cadence: 1 minute
• Delta windows: 3m, 9m, 30m, 1h, 3h, 6h, 12h, 24h
• Tabs: Opaque-info-sensitive vs Exogenous-arbitrage
• Telegram alerts: single global channel, immediate push, opaque signals only

Monorepo Layout

• apps/web: Next.js dashboard + internal API (/api/movers)
• apps/worker: ingestion + delta + classification + telegram pipeline
• packages/shared: shared types/windows helpers

Quick Start

1) Install

npm install

2) Environment

cp .env.example .env

Set at least:

• DATABASE_URL
• TELEGRAM_ENABLED, TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN, TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID (if alerts enabled)

3) Start Postgres

docker compose up -d postgres

4) Run worker and web

Terminal A:

npm run dev:worker

Terminal B:

npm run dev:web

Web runs on http://localhost:3000.

Internal API

GET /api/movers

Query params:

• providers=polymarket,kalshi
• window=3m|9m|30m|1h|3h|6h|12h|24h
• sort=asc|desc
• tab=opaque|exogenous|all
• category=all|crypto|politics|policy|sports|macro|other
• includeLowLiquidity=true|false
• minLiquidity=5000
• maxSpread=15

Telegram Alert Logic

• Evaluated every worker cycle.
• Label gate: opaque_info_sensitive only.
• Default thresholds (absolute pp):
  • 3m >= 5, 9m >= 7, 30m >= 10, 1h >= 13
  • 3h >= 18, 6h >= 22, 12h >= 28, 24h >= 36
• Cooldown: 30 min on same (provider, market, outcome, window, direction).

Notes

• Opinion official API is key-protected; this repo keeps adapter wiring but leaves it disabled by default.
• Classification is rules-first with lightweight external signals (Binance spot move).