High level notes and models for investing and wealth preservation.
The cure mustn't be worse than the disease.
- CAGR/Median/Kelly Percentiles
- Log return on Total Wealth
- You can generalise to % of total wealth
- Beware, nominal values matter because of affordability thresholds/step-functions baked into reality
All from Safe Haven Investing so far.
Visuals
- Bootstrap Paths Model
- X and Os Model (Sum of parts)
- Cost-Effect Safe Haven Frontier
Models
- P34 Petersburg Wagger - Shows how a bet can be good or bad depending on how much wealth you have.
- Portfolio Theroy Sharpe Ratio Efficient Frontier
- Show weaknesses such as leverage fragility
- See LML ErgodicityEconomics doc 2017
- Compound Average Grouth Rate (CAGR / Geometric Mean)
- Think of risk as things which reduce CAGR.
- Kelly Criterion (Sizing your position)
- Try to raise the lower percentile paths
- Median performance is more typical than mean performance
- Understanding leverage
- Magnifies risk
- Magnifies model error/uncertainty about risk
- Pseudo-leverage such as 3X S&P500 ETFs, limits downside?
- Closely related to sizing your position
- Handling inflation in return models
- Max log drawdown
- Falsification. Falsify hypotheses don't naively try to confirm them.
- Mechanical and Statistical Relationships. Don't confuse them. Mechanical is better but rarer.
External Resources:
- Safe Haven Investing by Mark Spitznagel: Amazon Link