Prediction Strategies

Prediction Strategies

The miner supports 8 betting strategies for channel point predictions. Set the strategy globally under streamer_defaults.bet.strategy or override it per streamer.

Strategy overview

Strategy	Votes on	Best for
SMART	High-odds outcome if gap ≥ percentage_gap, otherwise majority	General use — the recommended default
MOST_VOTED	Whichever outcome has the most votes at bet time	Following the crowd
HIGH_ODDS	Outcome with the best odds (fewest points bet)	High risk, high reward
PERCENTAGE	Outcome with the highest vote percentage	Similar to MOST_VOTED but percentage-weighted
SMART_MONEY	Outcome where top predictors have placed bets	Following experienced bettors
NUMBER_1	Always outcome #1 (first in the list)	Blind fixed-outcome bets
NUMBER_2 – NUMBER_8	Always outcome #N	Blind fixed-outcome bets

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SMART (recommended)

A hybrid strategy that adapts based on how lopsided the odds are:

1. Calculate the odds ratio between the two outcomes.
2. If the gap is ≥ percentage_gap (default 20%), vote on the high-odds outcome (higher payout, fewer bettors).
3. Otherwise, vote with the majority (lower risk).

bet:
  strategy: "SMART"
  percentage: 5        # Bet 5% of current points
  percentage_gap: 20   # Switch to high-odds when gap >= 20%
  max_points: 50000

When to use: Most situations. Balances risk and reward automatically.

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MOST_VOTED

Votes on whichever outcome has accumulated the most points or votes at the time of betting. Follows the crowd.

bet:
  strategy: "MOST_VOTED"
  percentage: 5

When to use: When you trust collective wisdom and want to minimize losses.

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HIGH_ODDS

Votes on the outcome with the fewest points bet (highest potential payout multiplier). High variance — can yield large wins but also large losses.

bet:
  strategy: "HIGH_ODDS"
  percentage: 3        # Keep percentage low — losses will happen
  max_points: 10000

When to use: When accumulating points slowly and willing to accept variance for bigger swings.

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PERCENTAGE

Votes on the outcome with the highest vote percentage among all participants. Similar to MOST_VOTED but uses the percentage share rather than absolute counts.

bet:
  strategy: "PERCENTAGE"
  percentage: 5

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SMART_MONEY

Tracks how top predictors (users with consistent wins) have voted and follows their lead. Requires Twitch to expose predictor history data in the PubSub payload.

bet:
  strategy: "SMART_MONEY"
  percentage: 5
  max_points: 30000

When to use: On channels where a small group of experienced bettors consistently predicts correctly.

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NUMBER_1 through NUMBER_8

Always votes on outcome number N (1-indexed, in the order Twitch presents them). Ignores odds, votes, and any other signal.

bet:
  strategy: "NUMBER_1"   # Always bet on the first outcome

When to use: When you know a specific outcome always wins for a particular streamer (e.g. the streamer always wins their own game).

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Betting amount calculation

The bet amount is calculated as:

amount = min(current_points × percentage / 100, max_points)

If amount < minimum_points, no bet is placed and a BET_FILTERS notification is emitted.

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Delay modes

The delay and delay_mode fields control when the bet is actually placed after the prediction opens.

delay_mode	Behavior
FROM_START	Wait delay seconds after the prediction opens
FROM_END	Place the bet delay seconds before the prediction closes
PERCENTAGE	Wait until delay% of the prediction window has elapsed

bet:
  delay: 6
  delay_mode: "FROM_END"   # Bet 6 seconds before it closes

FROM_END is the default and generally best — it allows odds to stabilize before committing.

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Stealth mode

When stealth_mode: true, the miner waits for other bettors to place their bets first before placing its own. This reduces the miner's influence on the displayed odds and makes the betting less detectable.

bet:
  stealth_mode: true
  delay: 10
  delay_mode: "FROM_END"

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Filter conditions

Skip betting entirely if a condition is not met. Emits a BET_FILTERS notification when skipped.

bet:
  filter_condition:
    by: "total_users"    # total_users | total_points
    where: "GTE"         # GT | GTE | LT | LTE | EQ
    value: 100           # Only bet when 100+ users have voted

Useful for skipping low-engagement predictions that are more likely to be scripted or manipulated.