Structured intelligence for prediction markets.
Prediction Market Platforms give you prices. ClearMarket gives you what the prices actually mean.
Raw feeds from Polymarket and Kalshi contain almost no information about resolution rules, catalyst events, cross-platform differences, or related markets. ClearMarket adds the missing intelligence layer so agents and institutions can trade with understanding instead of blind price signals.
A typical raw API response looks like this:
{
"slug": "russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-before-2027",
"price": 0.375,
"volume": 11771072,
"end_date": "2026-12-31"
}No triggers, no exclusions, no catalyst calendar, no cross-platform equivalents, no relationships to other ceasefire markets. Agents are flying blind.
Five fields that don't exist anywhere else:
| Field | What it gives you | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
resolution_logic |
Parsed triggers, exclusions, edge cases | The #1 source of disputes and losses |
temporal_context |
Close date, resolution date, catalyst_dates[] |
Know exactly which real-world events move price before resolution |
resolution_source |
Who decides + mechanism (UMA vs CFTC) | Same event can resolve differently across platforms |
cross_platform_link |
Same question on a different platform (e.g., Polymarket vs Kalshi) | Maps how the same event is structured differently across platforms, or flags when only one platform covers it |
related_markets |
Connected markets on the same platform (e.g., March/April/June ceasefire variants) | Surfaces term structure, parlays, and causal relationships between related contracts |
Raw Polymarket API (recession market) — 4 basic fields:
{
"question": "US recession by end of 2026?",
"price": 0.305,
"volume": 632960
}ClearMarket enriched record — 10 structured fields including parsed GDP triggers, BEA catalyst dates, Kalshi coverage gap, and causal links to Fed-rate markets:
{
"reference_id": "US-RECESSION-2026",
"platform": "polymarket",
"platform_market_id": "will-there-be-a-us-recession-in-2026",
"question": "US recession by end of 2026?",
"category": "macro",
"price_snapshot": {
"yes": {
"last_price": 0.305,
"best_bid": 0.30,
"best_ask": 0.31
},
"no": {
"last_price": 0.695,
"best_bid": 0.69,
"best_ask": 0.70
},
"implied_probability": {
"yes": 0.305,
"no": 0.695
},
"volume": 632960,
"liquidity": 154204
},
"resolution_logic": {
"summary": "Two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP, or NBER declaration",
"triggers": [
{
"metric": "real_gdp_quarterly_change",
"threshold": "< 0.0%",
"consecutive": 2,
"period": "Q2 2025 – Q4 2026",
"source": "BEA advance estimate"
},
{
"type": "announcement",
"body": "NBER",
"deadline": "BEA Q4 2026 advance estimate release"
}
],
"trigger_logic": "OR",
"exclusions": [],
"ambiguity_notes": "Uses advance estimates, which can be revised. First officially released value governs."
},
"temporal_context": {
"closes": "2026-12-31",
"resolves": "~2027-01-30",
"catalyst_dates": [
{"date": "2026-04-30", "event": "BEA Q1 2026 GDP advance estimate"},
{"date": "2026-07-30", "event": "BEA Q2 2026 GDP advance estimate"},
{"date": "2026-10-30", "event": "BEA Q3 2026 GDP advance estimate"}
],
"days_to_resolution": 285
},
"resolution_source": {
"name": "BEA + NBER",
"type": "government_statistical_agency",
"url": "https://bea.gov",
"mechanism": "UMA optimistic oracle ($500 USDC dispute bond)"
},
"cross_platform_link": {
"linked_platform": "kalshi",
"linked_market_id": null,
"match_confidence": null,
"structural_notes": "Kalshi has no direct recession market. Nearest proxy: KXZERORATE-2026 (will rates hit zero?). $633K volume on Polymarket with no Kalshi equivalent — significant coverage gap."
},
"related_markets": [
{
"market_id": "fed-funds-rate-end-of-2026",
"relationship_type": "causal_indicator",
"notes": "Aggressive rate cuts would be consistent with recession scenario"
}
]
}(See markets/ for enriched records.)
- Not a unified API. Dome (acquired by Polymarket), PolyRouter, and pmxt normalize access and order routing. ClearMarket consumes those outputs as inputs.
- Not a trading platform. No order execution, no portfolio management.
- Not a price feed. Price snapshots are included for context but are not real-time.
- Not a latency play. If your edge is speed, this won't help. If your edge is understanding what you're trading, it will.
v0.1 covers macro/economics and geopolitics — the categories with the highest institutional relevance and the most complex resolution criteria.
| Category | Markets | Platforms |
|---|---|---|
| Monetary Policy (Fed) | FOMC rate decisions, rate cut distribution, rate level brackets | Polymarket, Kalshi |
| Recession / GDP | US recession 2026 | Polymarket (Kalshi gap) |
| Geopolitics | Russia-Ukraine ceasefire cluster, Iran regime fall, US forces in Iran, US-Iran ceasefire sequencing | Polymarket (Kalshi gap) |
| Trade / Tariffs | US-Canada, US-China tariff markets | Polymarket, Kalshi |
| Commodities | Crude oil $120 target | Polymarket, Kalshi (structural divergence) |
| Asset Performance | Best-performing asset 2026 (BTC, Gold, S&P 500) | Polymarket |
Schema: schema/clearmarket-schema.json
- Bot and agent developers who need machine-readable resolution logic and cross-platform mapping
- Quantitative researchers incorporating prediction market signals into models
- Institutions evaluating prediction market data quality and coverage gaps
Prediction market data is increasingly embedded in institutional infrastructure (ICE, Bloomberg Terminal, Tradeweb, Dow Jones). The analytical context around that data doesn't exist yet.
| Stage | Status |
|---|---|
| Schema definition + enriched records | Current |
| Automated enrichment pipeline | Next |
| API or MCP server | When demand warrants |
| Resolution outcome tracking + accuracy dataset | After 6 months of data — this becomes the moat |
Early stage. Feedback on the schema and missing fields is more valuable than code contributions right now. Open an issue or reach out.
MIT